right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Jul 10, 2024 11:21:30 GMT
There was a lot of talk about Abbott's health. Is this seat likely to be an early by-election? Just because she’s old and ill doesn’t mean she’s very old or exceptionally ill. Experience over the last four decades shows that by-elections are caused by the deaths of MPs in their 40s 50s and 60s just as much as those in their 70s or 80s. My impression from the more "insidery" Labour posters here is that the situation was actually worrying enough for lots of people to think that she had wanted to retire, albeit not as humiliatingly as Labour's machine tried to enforce. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2024 11:29:47 GMT
It is possible of course that she is in indifferent (or worse) health but still remains the MP for the duration if this parliament. Whilst she didn't appear in great shape yesterday I would hesitate to say she is at death's door either - she may well have some long term condition short of that.
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Post by londonseal80 on Jul 27, 2024 13:37:52 GMT
There was a lot of talk about Abbott's health. Is this seat likely to be an early by-election? The Greens would throw the kitchen sink at it if there was. |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Jul 27, 2024 14:18:03 GMT
The Greens would fancy their chances and probably take it by pulling ahead in Hackney Downs, Stoke Newington, Clissold and Shacklwell wards. Hope there's no b-e.
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Post by batman on Jul 27, 2024 16:12:48 GMT
there are more than 11 wards in this constituency. They'd need to do even better than that
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 27, 2024 16:46:17 GMT
There was a lot of talk about Abbott's health. Is this seat likely to be an early by-election? The Greens would throw the kitchen sink at it if there was. Or more likely the heat pump. |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Jul 28, 2024 1:10:59 GMT
there are more than 11 wards in this constituency. They'd need to do even better than that Greens have potential in Woodberry Down which has a lot of newly built flats and benefits from proximity to Manor House tube. A lot of it is, of course, still council housing away from the reservoirs but the Greens should still compete there. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2024 1:52:09 GMT
There are 9 wards in this constituency, not 11, and Woodberry Down isn't one of them
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 28, 2024 2:00:50 GMT
there are more than 11 wards in this constituency. They'd need to do even better than that Greens have potential in Woodberry Down which has a lot of newly built flats and benefits from proximity to Manor House tube. A lot of it is, of course, still council housing away from the reservoirs but the Greens should still compete there. And exactly how many constituencies in London have the Greens ever won? I suppose in an alternative reality you could count votes from other constituencies? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2024 2:02:19 GMT
The Greens would fancy their chances and probably take it by pulling ahead in Hackney Downs, Stoke Newington, Clissold and Shacklwell wards. Hope there's no b-e. The constituency divides conveniently into three parts: Stoke Newington (Clissold, Shacklewell, Stoke Newington) Clapton (Hackney Downs, Kings Park, Leabridge) Stamford Hill (Cazenove, Springfield, SH West) As your list agrees, the Greens have strong potential to overhaul Labour in Stoke Newington, more limited potential in Clapton (strong in Hackney Downs, not so much in the other wards) and very limited potential in Stamford Hill (but Labour have trouble from other parties there). It would be a fascinating by-election a year or two into this government. |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Jul 28, 2024 2:12:11 GMT
Greens have potential in Woodberry Down which has a lot of newly built flats and benefits from proximity to Manor House tube. A lot of it is, of course, still council housing away from the reservoirs but the Greens should still compete there. And exactly how many constituencies in London have the Greens ever won? I suppose in an alternative reality you could count votes from other constituencies? None, obviously John, but given that they beat the Lib Dems in the 2021 mayoral election, and almost repeated the feat in 2024, it's not impossible. They have clear potential in the Hackney seats as well as Corbyn's seat where they polled 29% in the 2022 London local elections. The Green vote probably shoots up in Islington North when Corbyn retires. At GLA level, North East (Islington, Hackney, Waltham Forest) could get interesting in 2028 if the Greens target it. I'd say every constituency within that GLA seat has some Green potential for 2028, including Leyton and Walthamstow, and even parts of Higham Hill in IDS's seat. |
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2024 7:03:58 GMT
There are 9 wards in this constituency, not 11, and Woodberry Down isn't one of them sorry, I misread the relevant info. Of course you are quite right. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 28, 2024 7:08:03 GMT
there are more than 11 wards in this constituency. They'd need to do even better than that Greens have potential in Woodberry Down which has a lot of newly built flats and benefits from proximity to Manor House tube. A lot of it is, of course, still council housing away from the reservoirs but the Greens should still compete there. Woodberry Down is now in the Tottenham constituency. |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Jul 28, 2024 7:55:11 GMT
There are 9 wards in this constituency, not 11, and Woodberry Down isn't one of them sorry, I misread the relevant info. Of course you are quite right. It’s not in HN&SN, but if the Greens want Hackney in NOC, they should give Labour a run for their money in the ward. |
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2024 11:18:34 GMT
My Uncle Nat lived in the Woodberry Down estate. He was born in Poland & came here over 100 years ago like his siblings. He was definitely Labour, in fact the whole family was pretty much though some slightly younger family members were Communists.
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Jul 28, 2024 18:12:00 GMT
My Uncle Nat lived in the Woodberry Down estate. He was born in Poland & came here over 100 years ago like his siblings. He was definitely Labour, in fact the whole family was pretty much though some slightly younger family members were Communists. It’s broadly still intact but surrounded by new apartments. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 28, 2024 18:20:53 GMT
The Greens would throw the kitchen sink at it if there was. Or more likely the heat pump. No member of the Green Party could possibly throw a kitchen sink let alone a heat pump as a tofu based diet wouldn't give them the physical strength required |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 28, 2024 18:23:16 GMT
Or more likely the heat pump. No member of the Green Party could possibly throw a kitchen sink let alone a heat pump as a tofu based diet wouldn't give them the physical strength required If spinach can work for Popeye... |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 28, 2024 18:23:42 GMT
No member of the Green Party could possibly throw a kitchen sink let alone a heat pump as a tofu based diet wouldn't give them the physical strength required If spinach can work for Popeye...  |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Aug 4, 2024 22:47:06 GMT
She seemed fine at the pre-election rally at the Town Hall. I'm biased because I like her and when I lived in Hackney, everyone I spoke to about her stewardship of the seat rated her highly. I hope she's OK.
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