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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:46:30 GMT
Hackney North and Stoke Newington
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 18, 2024 3:58:48 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on Apr 11, 2024 9:49:52 GMT
Have Labour opened selections yet?
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on Apr 24, 2024 18:14:55 GMT
Guido points out the obvious, they've still not investigated Abbott order-order.com/2024/04/24/labour-still-investigating-diane-abbott/And that means that she almost certainly won't be able to get the Labour ticket this time. Would she stand as a non Labour candidate? She's may not have the same reputation as an assiduous MP as Jezza, nor does she have as big a name recognition or the burgeoning national treasure status - but she does have quite a few supporters in the area, particularly among the West Indian and African communities. If she could do a deal with the Hassidic and to a lesser extent the South Indian Muslim communities (and they can get the voters out, even though I don't think Abbott's particularly tight with either group) then that could get her in shouting distance. But she would need to work like stink, and even her biggest fan wouldn't say she's got the campaigning bug.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 24, 2024 20:58:24 GMT
I'm not sure she's that interested in standing again and especially not as a non-Labour candidate. I get more of a sense that she wants the whip back so she can stand down as a Labour MP...
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Apr 24, 2024 22:14:15 GMT
I'm not sure she's that interested in standing again and especially not as a non-Labour candidate. I get more of a sense that she wants the whip back so she can stand down as a Labour MP... Wasn't there a story that she was offered this deal exactly? She would have the whip restored providing it was of no consequence i.e. if she were standing down anyway.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2024 23:20:37 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | 1945 | 23.6% | 62.9% | 13.6% | | 1950 | 31.1% | 56.9% | 10.6% | | 1951 | 33.2% | 60.9% | 5.2% | 0.6% | 1955 | 34.7% | 58.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1959 | 36.0% | 56.1% | 7.8% | | 1964 | 31.2% | 61.1% | 7.7% | | 1966 | 26.9% | 66.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | Green | Com | | | | | | | | 1970 | 34.9% | 63.2% | | | | 1.9% | 1974 | 22.6% | 56.6% | 17.9% | 2.0% | | 0.9% | 1974 | 20.3% | 63.4% | 13.1% | 2.1% | | 0.8% | 1979 | 30.3% | 55.5% | 9.1% | 3.7% | | 1.4% | 1983 | 27.2% | 53.1% | 15.2% | | 1.2% | | 1987 | 28.6% | 51.8% | 16.6% | | 2.4% | | 1992 | 25.5% | 60.6% | 10.3% | | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Con | Lab | LD | Green | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | | | | | | | 1997 | 12.6% | 68.9% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 2001 | 10.5% | 65.4% | 13.9% | 7.0% | | 2005 | 11.4% | 51.2% | 22.9% | 9.8% | | 2010 | 13.6% | 56.1% | 23.5% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 2015 | 13.7% | 63.9% | 4.9% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 2017 | 13.2% | 75.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | | 2019 | 13.0% | 69.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 1.0% |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2024 8:28:52 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on May 23, 2024 20:19:18 GMT
Very difficult for Abbott to win as an Independent. Corbyn will just about do it but not here methinks. She'll save deposit but can only hope for around 15% of the vote. Is there any indication she wants to?
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Post by norflondon on May 23, 2024 21:55:55 GMT
No, no indication from her.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 6:22:46 GMT
Given the recent Hackney mayoral result, the Greens will probably come second here. How much of the Tory strength in the northern part of the seat translates to general elections? They won a seat in a third ward (Cazenove) in January but that seemed to have everything to do with the candidate (Ian Sharer).
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Post by batman on May 24, 2024 6:33:50 GMT
As has been said before from time to time, there is evidence that many strictly-Orthodox Jewish voters, for essentially parochial reasons, tend to vote in local elections for the Tories but do not cast their votes in general elections. In 2010, when the elections were simultaneous, it seems that quite a few of them voted Conservative in the local elections but for Diane Abbott in the general.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on May 24, 2024 9:04:43 GMT
If Labour were to block Abbott while it's fairly quiet, could be a good way to get the news cycle to concentrate on the break from Corbyn
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Post by bjornhattan on May 24, 2024 9:08:37 GMT
As has been said before from time to time, there is evidence that many strictly-Orthodox Jewish voters, for essentially parochial reasons, tend to vote in local elections for the Tories but do not cast their votes in general elections. In 2010, when the elections were simultaneous, it seems that quite a few of them voted Conservative in the local elections but for Diane Abbott in the general. I also sense it may vary between communities - for instance in Gateshead I don't believe they vote much even locally (ward boundaries divide the main Jewish neighbourhood between three wards so it's hard to tell). Though even by strictly Orthodox standards, the Gateshead community is pretty strict!
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Post by batman on May 24, 2024 9:42:54 GMT
One of those Gateshead wards has a veteran (secular, pretty much) Jewish Labour councillor who, quite coincidentally AFAIK, was once a Hackney Labour councillor (though not for a ward with a large strictly-Orthodox population). She was re-elected this month.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 11:42:33 GMT
Is this code for Diane running as an independent or just supporting Corbyn in his bid?
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on May 24, 2024 11:49:30 GMT
Is this code for Diane running as an independent or just supporting Corbyn in his bid? She's not got the same taste for campaigning that Corbyn has, nor the fondness for her in her constituency - and she knows her limits
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Post by norflondon on May 24, 2024 11:54:38 GMT
I hope so, she has been treated abominable by the dishonest and authoritarian Labour leadership. Her treatment has been a kick in the face of the British black community in England, especially in London. And I know a few black British people who view the current Labour leadership as racist as a result of this.
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Post by batman on May 24, 2024 12:01:38 GMT
I get really quite irate when I see comments like that. She said that Jewish people and Roma don't face everyday racism. That's just nasty & untrue. She deserved to be suspended for that, although it is debatable whether she still should be. Her remarks would have led to her suspension whatever her own ethnicity. She was not suspended because she is Black, and you surely know that.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 24, 2024 12:12:00 GMT
My experience is that quite a few Labour Party people who consider themselves on the left are very wary of defending Diane Abbott in general, because of her habit of making offensive remarks like the one that got her suspended.
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