Hackney North and Stoke Newington

[stb12]

Hackney North and Stoke Newington

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

[right]

Have Labour opened selections yet?

[right]

Guido points out the obvious, they've still not investigated Abbott

order-order.com/2024/04/24/labour-still-investigating-diane-abbott/

And that means that she almost certainly won't be able to get the Labour ticket this time.

Would she stand as a non Labour candidate?  She's may not have the same reputation as an assiduous MP as Jezza, nor does she have as big a name recognition or the burgeoning national treasure status - but she does have quite a few supporters in the area, particularly among the West Indian and African communities.  If she could do a deal with the Hassidic and to a lesser extent the South Indian Muslim communities (and they can get the voters out, even though I don't think Abbott's particularly tight with either group) then that could get her in shouting distance.

But she would need to work like stink, and even her biggest fan wouldn't say she's got the campaigning bug.

[Tony Otim]

I'm not sure she's that interested in standing again and especially not as a non-Labour candidate. I get more of a sense that she wants the whip back so she can stand down as a Labour MP...

[Ports]

Apr 24, 2024 20:58:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

I'm not sure she's that interested in standing again and especially not as a non-Labour candidate. I get more of a sense that she wants the whip back so she can stand down as a Labour MP...

Wasn't there a story that she was offered this deal exactly? She would have the whip restored providing it was of no consequence i.e. if she were standing down anyway.

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	23.6%	62.9%	13.6%
1950	31.1%	56.9%	10.6%
1951	33.2%	60.9%	5.2%	0.6%
1955	34.7%	58.9%	3.0%	3.4%
1959	36.0%	56.1%	7.8%
1964	31.2%	61.1%	7.7%
1966	26.9%	66.1%	4.4%	2.6%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP	Green	Com
1970	34.9%	63.2%				1.9%
1974	22.6%	56.6%	17.9%	2.0%		0.9%
1974	20.3%	63.4%	13.1%	2.1%		0.8%
1979	30.3%	55.5%	9.1%	3.7%		1.4%
1983	27.2%	53.1%	15.2%		1.2%
1987	28.6%	51.8%	16.6%		2.4%
1992	25.5%	60.6%	10.3%		3.1%	0.5%

	Con	Lab	LD	Green	Ref/UKIP/ BXP
1997	12.6%	68.9%	10.1%	4.0%	1.7%
2001	10.5%	65.4%	13.9%	7.0%
2005	11.4%	51.2%	22.9%	9.8%
2010	13.6%	56.1%	23.5%	4.6%	0.5%
2015	13.7%	63.9%	4.9%	14.6%	2.1%
2017	13.2%	75.4%	6.4%	4.3%
2019	13.0%	69.8%	7.7%	8.0%	1.0%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[right]

May 23, 2024 19:35:58 GMT norflondon said:

Very difficult for Abbott to win as an Independent. Corbyn will just about do it but not here methinks. She'll save deposit but can only hope for around 15% of the vote.

Is there any indication she wants to?

[norflondon]

No, no indication from her.

[Deleted]

Given the recent Hackney mayoral result, the Greens will probably come second here. How much of the Tory strength in the northern part of the seat translates to general elections? They won a seat in a third ward (Cazenove) in January but that seemed to have everything to do with the candidate (Ian Sharer).

[batman]

As has been said before from time to time, there is evidence that many strictly-Orthodox Jewish voters, for essentially parochial reasons, tend to vote in local elections for the Tories but do not cast their votes in general elections. In 2010, when the elections were simultaneous, it seems that quite a few of them voted Conservative in the local elections but for Diane Abbott in the general.

[right]

If Labour were to block Abbott while it's fairly quiet, could be a good way to get the news cycle to concentrate on the break from Corbyn

[bjornhattan]

May 24, 2024 6:33:50 GMT batman said:

As has been said before from time to time, there is evidence that many strictly-Orthodox Jewish voters, for essentially parochial reasons, tend to vote in local elections for the Tories but do not cast their votes in general elections. In 2010, when the elections were simultaneous, it seems that quite a few of them voted Conservative in the local elections but for Diane Abbott in the general.

I also sense it may vary between communities - for instance in Gateshead I don't believe they vote much even locally (ward boundaries divide the main Jewish neighbourhood between three wards so it's hard to tell). Though even by strictly Orthodox standards, the Gateshead community is pretty strict!

[batman]

One of those Gateshead wards has a veteran (secular, pretty much) Jewish Labour councillor who, quite coincidentally AFAIK, was once a Hackney Labour councillor (though not for a ward with a large strictly-Orthodox population). She was re-elected this month.

[Deleted]

Is this code for Diane running as an independent or just supporting Corbyn in his bid?

[right]

May 24, 2024 11:42:33 GMT @weld said:

Is this code for Diane running as an independent or just supporting Corbyn in his bid?

She's not got the same taste for campaigning that Corbyn has, nor the fondness for her in her constituency - and she knows her limits

[norflondon]

I hope so, she has been treated abominable by the dishonest and authoritarian Labour leadership. Her treatment has been a kick in the face of the British black community in England, especially in London. And I know a few black British people who view the current Labour leadership as racist as a result of this.

[batman]

I get really quite irate when I see comments like that. She said that Jewish people and Roma don't face everyday racism. That's just nasty & untrue. She deserved to be suspended for that, although it is debatable whether she still should be. Her remarks would have led to her suspension whatever her own ethnicity. She was not suspended because she is Black, and you surely know that.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

My experience is that quite a few Labour Party people who consider themselves on the left are very wary of defending Diane Abbott in general, because of her habit of making offensive remarks like the one that got her suspended.