stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
|
Ashfield
Mar 13, 2024 20:45:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 20:45:30 GMT
Ashfield
|
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 13, 2024 20:52:03 GMT
This is definitely going to be one of the more interesting ones to watch.
Conservatives defending a seat that they gained last time despite losing vote share, without their candidate from last time and without a candidate at all yet this time
Reform running with the incumbent MP - worth pointing out that UKIP got over 20 percent of the vote here in 2015 as well
Labour in third last time but a very respectable one and with their general gains since the last election could well win it from third
And Zadrozny running again having come second last time, as the candidate for the localist party with almost all the council seats.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 16, 2024 19:05:04 GMT
This is definitely going to be one of the more interesting ones to watch. Conservatives defending a seat that they gained last time despite losing vote share, without their candidate from last time and without a candidate at all yet this time Reform running with the incumbent MP - worth pointing out that UKIP got over 20 percent of the vote here in 2015 as well Labour in third last time but a very respectable one and with their general gains since the last election could well win it from third And Zadrozny running again having come second last time, as the candidate for the localist party with almost all the council seats. As it stands, the most interesting constituency to watch this year. |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Post by right on Mar 18, 2024 10:59:48 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 18, 2024 11:47:17 GMT
Maybe I'm misunderrememberating, but didn't Zadrozny used to be a Lib Dem? So the Ashfield Independent Group would be a gang of wishy-washy centrist Walter Mittys rather than a rabble of hard-right Brexity gammon? Or maybe it's not as straightforward as that : ) |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Post by right on Mar 18, 2024 11:57:14 GMT
Maybe I'm misunderrememberating, but didn't Zadrozny used to be a Lib Dem? So the Ashfield Independent Group would be a gang of wishy-washy centrist Walter Mittys rather than a rabble of hard-right Brexity gammon? Or maybe it's not as straightforward as that : ) I was thinking along the same lines, but I don't know anything about Ashfield apart from knowing that there's a surprisingly viable Independent group |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,139
Member is Online
|
Ashfield
Mar 18, 2024 11:59:22 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Mar 18, 2024 11:59:22 GMT
As Zadrozny is facing a cout hearing next year for a variety of offences will the Ashfield Independents have any influence at all?
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 18, 2024 12:05:12 GMT
The Ashfield Independents won a landslide in the district council elections in May, when the police investigation was in the public domain; they won a byelection in the Autumn, after the Leader and Deputy leader were charged, so it does not at the moment seem to have affected their vote.
Their political position is ultra-localist so not particularly distinct on the political spectrum, but they've been consistently attacking Lee Anderson as 'far right'.
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
|
Ashfield
Mar 18, 2024 12:22:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 18, 2024 12:22:30 GMT
No idea about Anderson having a personal vote, as usual in these situations it won’t be as high as he maybe thinks it is. Nevertheless you’d think the way he’s been in the national news means he’ll be able to secure a respectable enough vote thanks to the profile, even if very short of winning maybe enough to influence the outcome
As already mentioned throw in Zadrozny and it makes it interesting
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
|
Ashfield
Mar 18, 2024 12:31:21 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 18, 2024 12:31:21 GMT
Maybe I'm misunderrememberating, but didn't Zadrozny used to be a Lib Dem? So the Ashfield Independent Group would be a gang of wishy-washy centrist Walter Mittys rather than a rabble of hard-right Brexity gammon? Or maybe it's not as straightforward as that : ) I was thinking along the same lines, but I don't know anything about Ashfield apart from knowing that there's a surprisingly viable Independent group Zadrozny confirmed that he voted for Brexit before the last election, imagine that was a personal position revealed for that contest as it’s not really relevant for them as a local group |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Post by right on Mar 18, 2024 12:44:24 GMT
I was thinking along the same lines, but I don't know anything about Ashfield apart from knowing that there's a surprisingly viable Independent group Zadrozny confirmed that he voted for Brexit before the last election, imagine that was a personal position revealed for that contest as it’s not really relevant for them as a local group 71% Brexit vote in the constituency seems to make it relevant |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
|
Ashfield
Mar 18, 2024 13:08:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 18, 2024 13:08:39 GMT
Zadrozny confirmed that he voted for Brexit before the last election, imagine that was a personal position revealed for that contest as it’s not really relevant for them as a local group 71% Brexit vote in the constituency seems to make it relevant Yes but as an ultra local group are people likely to have decided their vote in local elections on brexit? Obviously it was relevant for him to reveal it when standing for national parliament |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Mar 18, 2024 13:57:51 GMT
As Zadrozny is facing a cout hearing next year for a variety of offences will the Ashfield Independents have any influence at all? Assuming the charges hold up, they didn't last time when they were raised just before the 2015 election, there were allegations of political influence thrown at the Labour MP's office - didn't 30p Lee work for Gloria at somepoint? There might be bad blood there. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 18, 2024 14:02:53 GMT
As Zadrozny is facing a cout hearing next year for a variety of offences will the Ashfield Independents have any influence at all? Assuming the charges hold up, they didn't last time when they were raised just before the 2015 election, there were allegations of political influence thrown at the Labour MP's office - didn't 30p Lee work for Gloria at somepoint? There might be bad blood there. Not sure there's anything in that. The previous trial was over what seems to be completely dfferent charges, and I think Lee Anderson only started working for Gloria de Piero in 2016. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
|
Ashfield
Mar 18, 2024 14:04:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 18, 2024 14:04:10 GMT
As Zadrozny is facing a cout hearing next year for a variety of offences will the Ashfield Independents have any influence at all? Assuming the charges hold up, they didn't last time when they were raised just before the 2015 election, there were allegations of political influence thrown at the Labour MP's office - didn't 30p Lee work for Gloria at somepoint? There might be bad blood there. He was her office manager for a period |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 19, 2024 11:52:07 GMT
Ultimately it's hard to see what the Ashfield Independents would get out of backing Anderson, when there's no reason to believe he's more popular than they are.
At the moment Zadrozny's trial date is set for February next year, though with backlogs in the justice system as they now are we can't rule out further delays.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 19, 2024 13:23:38 GMT
I'm quite sure that the Ashfield Independents will be gunning for this seat. Whether they can win it is another matter. They might.
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Post by right on Mar 19, 2024 13:37:59 GMT
Ultimately it's hard to see what the Ashfield Independents would get out of backing Anderson, when there's no reason to believe he's more popular than they are. At the moment Zadrozny's trial date is set for February next year, though with backlogs in the justice system as they now are we can't rule out further delays. There is some name recognition and he has a reputation as a plain speaker. And the power of incumbency can be useful in a close contest, if used well. I'm sure AI have been gunning for him, so there would be some embarrassment, but that rarely stops that sort of defection. It's interesting that this option doesn't seem to have been explored at all. It's probably the only seat in the country where it would be viable, but Lee Anderson's chosen an outfit that has a poor track record with General Elections. |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Mar 19, 2024 14:04:35 GMT
Given the Ashfield Independents are basically ‘Team Jason Zadrozny’, and Mr Zadrozny clearly wants to be a MP, why would they run someone else?
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 19, 2024 20:00:29 GMT
|
|
