|
|
Post by peterski on Jul 12, 2024 18:26:32 GMT
I certainly don't think it is 'innumerate' in this era of volatile swings to believe second place within 20 points is within striking distance . Especially as all but one of the seats I mentioned are below 20% and in the case of Amber Valley, Makerfield and Barnsley South appreciably so.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Jul 15, 2024 9:23:35 GMT
I certainly don't think it is 'innumerate' in this era of volatile swings to believe second place within 20 points is within striking distance . Especially as all but one of the seats I mentioned are below 20% and in the case of Amber Valley, Makerfield and Barnsley South appreciably so. But to make up that 20 point distance you generally need a good ground campaign. And Reform still have no idea at all how to do that. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 15, 2024 9:29:16 GMT
A lot of us got this wrong. Anderson didn't appear to be popular when he was a Tory MP & it seems his switch of party may have saved his seat. Reform UK weren't all that close to winning any other coalfield seats; Llanelli which I think still has an ex-mining element was about the closest. While some of us were well aware that Anderson was very popular among a certain type of voter, pertinently the type of voter that most of you political activists have very little contact with. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 15, 2024 9:40:10 GMT
Striking distance only if you are innumerate. The Labour leads in the bulk of those constituencies were around or about (and sometimes higher than!) the national Labour lead over Reform (20pts), and we know that Reform has quite a hard and low ceiling on its support levels, absent special factors. If we're in trouble in those next time then we're getting flattened by the electorate full stop. While not exactly likely the following scenario is far from implausible at the next election. Labour still well ahead in the polls but not as much as this time. Labour having governed socially liberal but economically centrist leading to some disaffection among "working class" northern Labour supporters. Reform noting all their second places run a fairly "north" centric campaign. Reform have used the next 4-5 years to build some level of organisation in target seats. This leads to a modest but not insubstantial swing from Labour to Reform which combined with a tactical squeeze on the Tory vote puts numerous seats in danger. There are plenty of reasons to think this won't happen but it is certainly plausible. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
|
Ashfield
Jul 15, 2024 10:03:05 GMT
via mobile
mboy likes this
Post by stb12 on Jul 15, 2024 10:03:05 GMT
I’m not a political activist but I think it was clear enough to most people that Anderson’s style and rhetoric would have an appeal to a pretty significant voting demographic across the country
I didn’t have enough knowledge of Ashfield to be certain how that would translate into this constituency itself and we’ve seen plenty of examples over the years where an MP’s personal vote has proven to hardly be there at all when they defect or go independent
As I mentioned before it was certainly an impressive result and it doesn’t seem like somewhere Reform have won with just any other candidate albeit probably would still have done well
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 15, 2024 23:06:53 GMT
Striking distance only if you are innumerate. The Labour leads in the bulk of those constituencies were around or about (and sometimes higher than!) the national Labour lead over Reform (20pts), and we know that Reform has quite a hard and low ceiling on its support levels, absent special factors. If we're in trouble in those next time then we're getting flattened by the electorate full stop. Labour having governed socially liberal but economically centrist leading to some disaffection among "working class" northern Labour supporters. Reform noting all their second places run a fairly "north" centric campaign. Reform have used the next 4-5 years to build some level of organisation in target seats. That word's doing a lot of heavy lifting considering that one of the areas with the most potential for Reform seems to be post-industrial south Wales. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 3:21:38 GMT
I’m not a political activist but I think it was clear enough to most people that Anderson’s style and rhetoric would have an appeal to a pretty significant voting demographic across the country I didn’t have enough knowledge of Ashfield to be certain how that would translate into this constituency itself and we’ve seen plenty of examples over the years where an MP’s personal vote has proven to hardly be there at all when they defect or go independent As I mentioned before it was certainly an impressive result and it doesn’t seem like somewhere Reform have won with just any other candidate albeit probably would still have done well Can I just add here that the polls for this seat were fucking ridiculous? Many overhyped Zadrozny, who couldn't win in 2010 as a Lib Dem or in 2019 as an Indie. One of the most overrated politicians since that lickspittle self-promoter Des Wilson (whom Edwina Currie called out as never having been elected to anything). Maybe now Mr Zadrozny can get an actual job and stop running these campaigns he cannot win. This is Anderson's seat for the foreseeable FWIW. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 5:54:19 GMT
Ashfield was hardly natural Lib Dem territory so his performance in 2010 was pretty creditable, likewise some of his later performances as an Independent but clearly his ship had sailed by now and his chances were overstated by some forum members (I don;t know if he was particularly hyped outside this forum). Agree about Des Wilson who I had forgotten about - awful individual.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 6:00:34 GMT
Far from being gaffe prone and prickly around the edges (although many admire the latter epithet), Andrson is an incredibly shrewd politician, ditching Labour and the Tories at exactly the right times. Compare that to the farce of many in Change UK or those who stood as independents in 2019 (and should have joined the LDs). I get the local champion thing is a campaign trick, but is the local council really that well run here? I'd wager not given his result (albeit with squeezing from Reform).
|
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 17, 2024 6:06:09 GMT
Far from being gaffe prone and prickly around the edges (although many admire the latter epithet), Andrson is an incredibly shrewd politician, ditching Labour and the Tories at exactly the right times. Compare that to the farce of many in Change UK or those who stood as independents in 2019 (and should have joined the LDs). I get the local champion thing is a campaign trick, but is the local council really that well run here? I'd wager not given his result (albeit with squeezing from Reform). Indeed, the Nottinghamshire county council elections next May will be interesting in Ashfield district (10 councillors in total) and I wonder how many of those 10 could go Reform (from a virtual standing start last time) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 6:09:55 GMT
Far from being gaffe prone and prickly around the edges (although many admire the latter epithet), Andrson is an incredibly shrewd politician, ditching Labour and the Tories at exactly the right times. Compare that to the farce of many in Change UK or those who stood as independents in 2019 (and should have joined the LDs). I get the local champion thing is a campaign trick, but is the local council really that well run here? I'd wager not given his result (albeit with squeezing from Reform). Indeed, the Nottinghamshire county council elections next May will be interesting in Ashfield district (10 councillors in total) and I wonder how many of those 10 could go Reform (from a virtual standing start last time) All true, but Nottinghamshire localists are like road runner, they just keep going. Anyone remember the Mansfield Independent Forum and Stewart Rickersey? |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 18, 2024 13:03:52 GMT
Labour having governed socially liberal but economically centrist leading to some disaffection among "working class" northern Labour supporters. Reform noting all their second places run a fairly "north" centric campaign. Reform have used the next 4-5 years to build some level of organisation in target seats. That word's doing a lot of heavy lifting considering that one of the areas with the most potential for Reform seems to be post-industrial south Wales. Only in strict geographic terms. Politically speaking a "north" centric campaign would have considerable crossover appeal in large parts of South Wales. |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Post by right on Jul 25, 2024 16:31:40 GMT
I certainly don't think it is 'innumerate' in this era of volatile swings to believe second place within 20 points is within striking distance . Especially as all but one of the seats I mentioned are below 20% and in the case of Amber Valley, Makerfield and Barnsley South appreciably so. But to make up that 20 point distance you generally need a good ground campaign. And Reform still have no idea at all how to do that. They have an idea, and their predecessors have had an idea for some time It's just that you have to give a certain amount of autonomy to do that on any large scale |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
|
Ashfield
Jul 25, 2024 16:35:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by right on Jul 25, 2024 16:35:05 GMT
Striking distance only if you are innumerate. The Labour leads in the bulk of those constituencies were around or about (and sometimes higher than!) the national Labour lead over Reform (20pts), and we know that Reform has quite a hard and low ceiling on its support levels, absent special factors. If we're in trouble in those next time then we're getting flattened by the electorate full stop. While not exactly likely the following scenario is far from implausible at the next election. Labour still well ahead in the polls but not as much as this time. Labour having governed socially liberal but economically centrist leading to some disaffection among "working class" northern Labour supporters. Reform noting all their second places run a fairly "north" centric campaign. Reform have used the next 4-5 years to build some level of organisation in target seats. This leads to a modest but not insubstantial swing from Labour to Reform which combined with a tactical squeeze on the Tory vote puts numerous seats in danger. There are plenty of reasons to think this won't happen but it is certainly plausible. Obviously this depends somewhat on Reform's operational ability, and there are good reasons to doubt it But even if they have enough of that it also depends on whether Farage decides to kill the the Tories or build out Reform |
|
sanders
Green
Posts: 2,989
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Jul 26, 2024 6:14:43 GMT
Nottinghamshire locals, especially Nottinghamshire locals in Ashfield, are always interesting. Can Reform smash the Ashfield Independents locally, who are comically successful at the local level? We did see a bonfire of independents of sorts with the Mansfield Independent Forum a while back. This is strong Reform territory now..
|
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 26, 2024 16:18:01 GMT
Nottinghamshire locals, especially Nottinghamshire locals in Ashfield, are always interesting. Can Reform smash the Ashfield Independents locally, who are comically successful at the local level? We did see a bonfire of independents of sorts with the Mansfield Independent Forum a while back. This is strong Reform territory now.. It is certainly strong Anderson territory which is not the same thing. It is three years till the next locals here so who knows what the political climate will be like but Anderson as the MP certainly doesn't mean that a load of Reform councillors will be elected or that there will even be a substantial Reform campaign. |
|
sanders
Green
Posts: 2,989
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Jul 26, 2024 16:20:26 GMT
Nottinghamshire locals, especially Nottinghamshire locals in Ashfield, are always interesting. Can Reform smash the Ashfield Independents locally, who are comically successful at the local level? We did see a bonfire of independents of sorts with the Mansfield Independent Forum a while back. This is strong Reform territory now.. It is certainly strong Anderson territory which is not the same thing. It is three years till the next locals here so who knows what the political climate will be like but Anderson as the MP certainly doesn't mean that a load of Reform councillors will be elected or that there will even be a substantial Reform campaign. To be clear, and I realise I wasn't being so, I'm thinking about next year's Nottinghamshire County Council elections. I see no reason Reform won't poll well in Bassetlaw, Ashfield and Mansfield constituencies in particular since they were friendly to UKIP and Reform poll heavily in all of them and of course took this one. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 27, 2024 11:21:51 GMT
It is certainly strong Anderson territory which is not the same thing. It is three years till the next locals here so who knows what the political climate will be like but Anderson as the MP certainly doesn't mean that a load of Reform councillors will be elected or that there will even be a substantial Reform campaign. To be clear, and I realise I wasn't being so, I'm thinking about next year's Nottinghamshire County Council elections. I see no reason Reform won't poll well in Bassetlaw, Ashfield and Mansfield constituencies in particular since they were friendly to UKIP and Reform poll heavily in all of them and of course took this one. I certainly agree that they will poll reasonably if they put up candidates but unless there is a serious campaign, which there may well not be, they are unlikely to win seats. |
|
