Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 20:36:34 GMT
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 18, 2024 17:07:29 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has Anderson holding on with over 60% of the vote. It appears to be taking no account whatsoever of Zadrozny, however.
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Post by carolus on Jun 18, 2024 19:28:30 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has Anderson holding on with over 60% of the vote. It appears to be taking no account whatsoever of Zadrozny, however. There's nothing like a good MRP... |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 18, 2024 20:23:52 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has Anderson holding on with over 60% of the vote. It appears to be taking no account whatsoever of Zadrozny, however. FWIW, my predikshun for Ashfield is a relatively easy Labour gain. The Zadrozny vote is essentially what the Lib Dems would get in a good result (i.e. nowhere near winning) and is based in success in local elections (i.e. not a big enough turnout to win in parliamentary elections), whereas the Conservative and Reform vote is fairly evenly split. It is an example of where one has to be careful not to get carried away with making excitable predictions just because there is an MP who has defected, or just because there is a prominent local weirdo independent, or (in this case) both. When it comes to the crunch, voters will merely soberly and calmly do what people are doing everywhere else: voting Labour in order to kick out the incumbent Conservative (only slightly stretching the definition of “incumbent”). |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 9:12:20 GMT
If CON and REF go after Zadrozny's Lib Dem roots, in a 70% Leave seat, they and LAB could squeeze him. I believe that this would be the most Brexity seat held by a (former) Lib Dem, if Zadrozny won it. Funnily enough for a four-way marginal, the candidates surnames range from A (Anderson) to Z (Zadrozny). Another thing is, and I mean this with no ill will towards a guy who is clearly a grafter and local 'champion' for his patch, but Zadrozny might be bit too European sounding to win here.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 19, 2024 9:16:18 GMT
If CON and REF go after Zadrozny's Lib Dem roots, in a 70% Leave seat, they and LAB could squeeze him. I believe that this would be the most Brexity seat held by a (former) Lib Dem, if Zadrozny won it. Funnily enough for a four-way marginal, the candidates surnames range from A (Anderson) to Z (Zadrozny). Another thing is, and I mean this with no ill will towards a guy who is clearly a grafter and local 'champion' for his patch, but Zadrozny might be bit too European sounding to win here. One of the things about trawling through election leaflets from around the country is that Brexit isn't an issue that's seen to be worth leaflet space. |
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 10:58:50 GMT
If Zadrozny loses it won’t be because of his name.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 12:56:35 GMT
If Zadrozny loses it won’t be because of his name. I hope you are right but we keep hearing this talked about as an 'Immigration election' with all that entails. I hope voters here vote on policy. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 19, 2024 17:02:14 GMT
If CON and REF go after Zadrozny's Lib Dem roots, in a 70% Leave seat, they and LAB could squeeze him. I believe that this would be the most Brexity seat held by a (former) Lib Dem, if Zadrozny won it. Funnily enough for a four-way marginal, the candidates surnames range from A (Anderson) to Z (Zadrozny). Another thing is, and I mean this with no ill will towards a guy who is clearly a grafter and local 'champion' for his patch, but Zadrozny might be bit too European sounding to win here. I would strongly suggest you go speak to some actual Ashfield voters before arguing this sort of nonsense. There is a relatively large pre-accession Eastern European population in the area owing to the coal mines so many people in the area will have this type of surname. Zadrozny is very well known in the local area so voters aren’t going to mistake him for some recent immigrant trying to parachute himself in the constituency. Even taking Zadrozny himself out of the situation, I just can’t see a non-negligible share of people changing their vote based on a candidate having a European surname, it’s just not how normal people think no matter how little others may think of them. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 19, 2024 17:23:52 GMT
@weld thinks that every category of voter is as much an absurd caricature as that which he has constructed for himself
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2024 17:35:31 GMT
If CON and REF go after Zadrozny's Lib Dem roots, in a 70% Leave seat, they and LAB could squeeze him. I believe that this would be the most Brexity seat held by a (former) Lib Dem, if Zadrozny won it. Funnily enough for a four-way marginal, the candidates surnames range from A (Anderson) to Z (Zadrozny). Another thing is, and I mean this with no ill will towards a guy who is clearly a grafter and local 'champion' for his patch, but Zadrozny might be bit too European sounding to win here. I would strongly suggest you go speak to some actual Ashfield voters before arguing this sort of nonsense. There is a relatively large pre-accession Eastern European population in the area owing to the coal mines so many people in the area will have this type of surname. Zadrozny is very well known in the local area so voters aren’t going to mistake him for some recent immigrant trying to parachute himself in the constituency. Even taking Zadrozny himself out of the situation, I just can’t see a non-negligible share of people changing their vote based on a candidate having a European surname, it’s just not how normal people think no matter how little others may think of them. Fair enough. What I said makes no sense. For some reason. I bought into the idea that we had hardly any immigration before 1997 to 2010. It's probably a legacy of my support for Brexit and immigration-based reasons for enthusiastically voting Leave. I also thought once that Ashfield was a town, when it isn't! However, I think the former Lib Dem thing may harm JZ here. Still, I'm probably working backwards from my conclusion that I see Anderson making useful contributions on occasion and would like to see smaller parties represented in the HofC at this GE. And, obviously, as someone who voted Leave with family 'up north', I can speak for and understand 100% of Leave voters, every time and always. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 19, 2024 22:56:10 GMT
If CON and REF go after Zadrozny's Lib Dem roots, in a 70% Leave seat, they and LAB could squeeze him. I believe that this would be the most Brexity seat held by a (former) Lib Dem, if Zadrozny won it. Funnily enough for a four-way marginal, the candidates surnames range from A (Anderson) to Z (Zadrozny). Another thing is, and I mean this with no ill will towards a guy who is clearly a grafter and local 'champion' for his patch, but Zadrozny might be bit too European sounding to win here. One of the things about trawling through election leaflets from around the country is that Brexit isn't an issue that's seen to be worth leaflet space. I suspect the electors are just sick and tired of hearing about Brexit. |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jun 20, 2024 2:43:48 GMT
Another thing is, and I mean this with no ill will towards a guy who is clearly a grafter and local 'champion' for his patch, but Zadrozny might be bit too European sounding to win here. The previous MP, who only narrowly defeated Zadrozny in 2010, was the not at all European-sounding Gloria de Piero FFS. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2024 5:41:39 GMT
that which he has constructed for himself Unreconstructed post-Milibandist Corbynite green socialist? |
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Ashfield
Jun 27, 2024 8:45:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by simonb on Jun 27, 2024 8:45:17 GMT
Worth noting here that both reform and zadrozny are spending heavily here and have high profile campaigns- Labour are trying to take every other seat for miles around and are spreading their resources and the tories have given this one up as a bad job
I suspect it’s close in the end between Labour and Anderson. My guess at the moment is that the Zadrozny campaign will hurt Labour more but it’s hard to tell and none of the polling is going to be v accurate
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 5, 2024 23:53:54 GMT
I am still astonished at just how effectively Reform cannibalised the Tory vote here. It's a humiliation for those in my party who forced him out and Anderson has well and truly had the last laugh.
Lee Anderson 17,062, 42.8%, +37.8%.
Debbie Soloman, Conservative, 3,271, 8.2%, -31.0%
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 0:30:04 GMT
I am still astonished at just how effectively Reform cannibalised the Tory vote here. It's a humiliation for those in my party who forced him out and Anderson has well and truly had the last laugh. Lee Anderson 17,062, 42.8%, +37.8%. Debbie Soloman, Conservative, 3,271, 8.2%, -31.0% For over a year the Tories put him front and centre of their campaign to retain "red wall" voters who had flocked to them in 2019. The gave him a platform and he really used it. I know people who couldn't name a third of the cabinet but would mention him unprompted and in glowing terms the way they never spoke of other politicians. I didn't think he would do this well but it is very easy to see why he did. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 2:01:14 GMT
This wasn't surprising at all and I always thought 30 p Lee would hold on as the incumbent right-wing headbanger. is Zadrozny done re: Westminster elections now?
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right
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Ashfield
Jul 6, 2024 5:07:51 GMT
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Post by right on Jul 6, 2024 5:07:51 GMT
This wasn't surprising at all and I always thought 30 p Lee would hold on as the incumbent right-wing headbanger. is Zadrozny done re: Westminster elections now? Is Zadrozny much younger and if so how much? It's hard to tell from a distance how much a political hatred is real and how much it's a function of partisan rivalry. But if some sort of succession deal can be stitched up then Anderson could find he has a formidable local machine as well as a personal brand. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 5:10:05 GMT
This wasn't surprising at all and I always thought 30 p Lee would hold on as the incumbent right-wing headbanger. is Zadrozny done re: Westminster elections now? Is Zadrozny much younger and if so how much? It's hard to tell from a distance how much a political hatred is real and how much it's a function of partisan rivalry. But if some sort of succession deal can be stitched up then Anderson could find he has a formidable local machine as well as a personal brand. What are you talking about? Lee Anderson is only 56. He's not going anywhere as MP soon, I wouldn't have thought (barring some issues I'm unaware of here) |
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