Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2024 6:56:59 GMT
A focus group made up of people who have already decided to switch to reform have positive views about reform. That really tells us diddly squat about anything. You may pooh pooh it, but this part was particularly interesting: "💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes. 💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back. Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation." |
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Post by jm on Jun 7, 2024 15:50:49 GMT
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 10, 2024 21:32:13 GMT
Have to trust Tory candidate Debbie - #nevertrustatory.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 10, 2024 21:36:11 GMT
Have to trust Tory candidate Debbie - #nevertrustatory. If I was going to deploy ex Brexit Party candidates it would be here and against Bridgen |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 10, 2024 21:55:59 GMT
Have to trust Tory candidate Debbie - #nevertrustatory. If I was going to deploy ex Brexit Party candidates it would be here and against Bridgen With a locally-based Reform candidate, Bridgen and an ex-Brexit party Tory in NW Leicestershire people of that inclination are really spoiled for choice. While I’d certainly agree that there are plenty of people in that area with unrepentant Brexit views and perhaps socially conservative opinions there are also plenty of people with less interest in those things and they are likely to coalesce around Labour if they run a competent campaign. I’d have picked a more mainstream Tory, but we’ll see. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 11, 2024 5:35:12 GMT
With a locally-based Reform candidate, Bridgen and an ex-Brexit party Tory in NW Leicestershire people of that inclination are really spoiled for choice. While I’d certainly agree that there are plenty of people in that area with unrepentant Brexit views and perhaps socially conservative opinions there are also plenty of people with less interest in those things and they are likely to coalesce around Labour if they run a competent campaign. I’d have picked a more mainstream Tory, but we’ll see. NW Leicestershire is almost identical to your old seat, interesting that It’s similar. South Derbyshire has elements of Derby’s suburbs and has a rather larger population originating from India (mostly Sikhs) than NW Leicestershire. And South Derbyshire grew rather faster. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 5:39:20 GMT
With respect, we're getting off topic.
RFM 26%
LAB 25%
ASH IND 24%
CON 22%
LD 2%
GRN 1%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 11, 2024 5:43:10 GMT
Have to trust Tory candidate Debbie - #nevertrustatory. People are allowed to change their minds. I grow by thinking, and changing my opinion. My change of mind may not please all, but it shows I can potentially think for myself. I don't see this candidate changing her mind as a bad thing, potentially the opposite. The negative is the fact she uses inane twitter hashtag slogans. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2024 6:32:17 GMT
With respect, we're getting off topic. RFM 26% LAB 25% ASH IND 24% CON 22% LD 2% GRN 1% This is one of the harder seats to predict, but Con + Brexit Party were on only 44.2% notionally in 2019. I think you may be in roughly the right ballpark for Anderson and for Zadrozny but I think you have the Tory too high. |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 8:16:38 GMT
I think something like Lab 28 Zadrozny 25 RefUK 22 C 17, but this is one of the hardest seats to predict. I certainly don't see the right-wing vote (Con + RefUK) getting to 48%, it will surely go down from where it was in 2019.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 11, 2024 8:52:36 GMT
Have to trust Tory candidate Debbie - #nevertrustatory. People are allowed to change their minds. I grow by thinking, and changing my opinion. My change of mind may not please all, but it shows I can potentially think for myself. I don't see this candidate changing her mind as a bad thing, potentially the opposite. The negative is the fact she uses inane twitter hashtag slogans. Yes, they can.
But this is not old dirt found from a long time ago.
It was one election ago and the Conservative party is broadly the same as before.
And she was just a Brexit party voter, she was strongly supporting them and attacking the Tories.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 8:53:54 GMT
I think something like Lab 28 Zadrozny 25 RefUK 22 C 17, but this is one of the hardest seats to predict. I certainly don't see the right-wing vote (Con + RefUK) getting to 48%, it will surely go down from where it was in 2019. How do you know that Zadrozny isn't right wing? |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Ashfield
Jun 11, 2024 9:07:01 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 11, 2024 9:07:01 GMT
I think something like Lab 28 Zadrozny 25 RefUK 22 C 17, but this is one of the hardest seats to predict. I certainly don't see the right-wing vote (Con + RefUK) getting to 48%, it will surely go down from where it was in 2019. How do you know that Zadrozny isn't right wing? Read Zadrozny. He isn't right wing. |
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 11, 2024 9:32:11 GMT
How do you know that Zadrozny isn't right wing? Read Zadrozny. He isn't right wing. The only wing Zadrozny is on is the Zadrozny Wing. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Ashfield
Jun 11, 2024 9:34:46 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 11, 2024 9:34:46 GMT
Read Zadrozny. He isn't right wing. The only wing Zadrozny is on is the Zadrozny Wing. It's mostly parish-pump stuff, localism. But for the general election, who knows? I don't think he is right wing, but yes, I'm not sure about many issues. |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 10:50:18 GMT
He's a former Lib Dem & the Lib Dems only put up a token effort against him if they stand at all. I regard him as a Lib Dem in all but name.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Ashfield
Jun 11, 2024 10:57:18 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Jun 11, 2024 10:57:18 GMT
He's a former Lib Dem & the Lib Dems only put up a token effort against him if they stand at all. I regard him as a Lib Dem in all but name. He was pro-Brexit, although considering the Leave vote here that was a smart local move as much as anything I’d think. And the Lib Dems did have more eurosceptics at a time |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 11, 2024 11:19:50 GMT
He's a former Lib Dem & the Lib Dems only put up a token effort against him if they stand at all. I regard him as a Lib Dem in all but name. I got the impression that he pretty much was the Lib Dems in Ashfield, and when he went, they went more or less.
He only lost to De Piero by 192 votes in 2010, and in 2019 they polled 2.3% (actually a slight increase on 2017).
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jun 11, 2024 13:39:21 GMT
He's a former Lib Dem & the Lib Dems only put up a token effort against him if they stand at all. I regard him as a Lib Dem in all but name. I got the impression that he pretty much was the Lib Dems in Ashfield, and when he went, they went more or less.
He only lost to De Piero by 192 votes in 2010, and in 2019 they polled 2.3% (actually a slight increase on 2017).
Yes, he clearly took most (all?) of the local LDs with him - I think every LD elected (and many losing candidates) in Ashfield in 2015 was elected as an Ashfield Independent in 2019. I'm pretty sure the lack of LDs is a sign of a defunct local party rather than some sort of secret pact.
That said, having just looked at their facebook page, their colourscheme and stakeboards don't look entirely unfamiliar.
There's a manifesto here:
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 11, 2024 13:45:04 GMT
I would guess the order here would be:
Lab with 33-35%
Zadrozny
Reform
Con
Although it would make me smile if Anderson underperformed Reform nationally and comes 4th...
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