Ashfield

[right]

Jul 6, 2024 5:10:05 GMT @weld said:

Jul 6, 2024 5:07:51 GMT right said:

Is Zadrozny much younger and if so how much? It's hard to tell from a distance how much a political hatred is real and how much it's a function of partisan rivalry. But if some sort of succession deal can be stitched up then Anderson could find he has a formidable local machine as well as a personal brand.

What are you talking about? Lee Anderson is only 56. He's not going anywhere as MP soon, I wouldn't have thought (barring some issues I'm unaware of here)

OK, he looks older

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2024 5:13:18 GMT right said:

Jul 6, 2024 5:10:05 GMT @weld said:

What are you talking about? Lee Anderson is only 56. He's not going anywhere as MP soon, I wouldn't have thought (barring some issues I'm unaware of here)

OK, he looks older

That point I will agree with you on. Anderson just has an older baby boomer appearance and, dare I say it, outlook. 

[Deleted]

The UKIP/BXP/Reform vote has been very volatile, and much like in Clacton in 2017, Reform could completely flop here next time due to the national picture. I think that's true even if Anderson is still the candidate. But unlike Clacton (and Reform's 3 other new seats), I think in a future election where Reform (or a successor party) are polling as they are now they would struggle here without incumbency.

Of course Anderson has switched parties twice before and if Reform wanes before the next election then I suspect he won't be standing for them.

[right]

It's interesting that this seat seems to respond well to independents while the general area still seems to be quite party bound.

Is it because there's an Independent shaped gap among blue collar/red wall voters but that most independents are latte sipping poseurs, or is it something I'm the Ashfield air?

[carlton43]

Jul 5, 2024 23:53:54 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

I am still astonished at just how effectively Reform cannibalised the Tory vote here. It's a humiliation for those in my party who forced him out and Anderson has well and truly had the last laugh.


Lee Anderson 17,062, 42.8%, +37.8%.

Debbie Soloman, Conservative, 3,271, 8.2%, -31.0%

He had been a strong part of your better future and is now lost to a bitter rival party.

[stb12]

Ashfield doesn't strike me as a seat where Reform would have been especially strong with any candidate, so to be fair Anderson must have built up some personal brand to use

[Tony Otim]

Jul 6, 2024 8:25:07 GMT @nw12398 said:

The UKIP/BXP/Reform vote has been very volatile, and much like in Clacton in 2017, Reform could completely flop here next time due to the national picture. I think that's true even if Anderson is still the candidate. But unlike Clacton (and Reform's 3 other new seats), I think in a future election where Reform (or a successor party) are polling as they are now they would struggle here without incumbency.

Of course Anderson has switched parties twice before and if Reform wanes before the next election then I suspect he won't be standing for them.

Also relevant will be whether Anderson and Farage can play well together for a whole parliament... I wouldn't place money on it at the moment.

[pl]

Jul 6, 2024 14:00:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jul 6, 2024 8:25:07 GMT @nw12398 said:

The UKIP/BXP/Reform vote has been very volatile, and much like in Clacton in 2017, Reform could completely flop here next time due to the national picture. I think that's true even if Anderson is still the candidate. But unlike Clacton (and Reform's 3 other new seats), I think in a future election where Reform (or a successor party) are polling as they are now they would struggle here without incumbency.

Of course Anderson has switched parties twice before and if Reform wanes before the next election then I suspect he won't be standing for them.

Also relevant will be whether Anderson and Farage can play well together for a whole parliament... I wouldn't place money on it at the moment.

Quite - Farage' various parties have rarely had alternative power bases to his.

Anderson is now a serial defector.

[finsobruce]

Jul 6, 2024 14:17:53 GMT pl said:

Jul 6, 2024 14:00:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Also relevant will be whether Anderson and Farage can play well together for a whole parliament... I wouldn't place money on it at the moment.

Quite - Farage' various parties have rarely had alternative power bases to his.

Anderson is now a serial defector.

As was Winston Churchill.

Not that I'm comparing the two.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 6, 2024 14:00:25 GMT stb12 said:

Ashfield doesn't strike me as a seat where Reform would have been especially strong with any candidate, so to be fair Anderson must have built up some personal brand to use

He has  a massive personal brand, are you genuinely oblivious to just how prominent he was as Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party?

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 6, 2024 14:00:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jul 6, 2024 8:25:07 GMT @nw12398 said:

The UKIP/BXP/Reform vote has been very volatile, and much like in Clacton in 2017, Reform could completely flop here next time due to the national picture. I think that's true even if Anderson is still the candidate. But unlike Clacton (and Reform's 3 other new seats), I think in a future election where Reform (or a successor party) are polling as they are now they would struggle here without incumbency.

Of course Anderson has switched parties twice before and if Reform wanes before the next election then I suspect he won't be standing for them.

Also relevant will be whether Anderson and Farage can play well together for a whole parliament... I wouldn't place money on it at the moment.

This is a fair question, and a genuine concern to those of use who wish reform well.

My hope is that Farage and Anderson recognise that while they have similarities they appeal to different parts of the Reform voter base. In over simplified terms Farage plays better in the South while Anderson plays better in the North. They are stronger together than they are apart and I hope that this obvious self interest prevents a split. 

[stb12]

Jul 6, 2024 18:20:52 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Jul 6, 2024 14:00:25 GMT stb12 said:

Ashfield doesn't strike me as a seat where Reform would have been especially strong with any candidate, so to be fair Anderson must have built up some personal brand to use

He has  a massive personal brand, are you genuinely oblivious to just how prominent he was as Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party?

Not at all but that wouldn’t necessarily translate into his local campaign, all credit to him as it clearly has

[noorderling]

Jul 6, 2024 18:43:06 GMT stb12 said:

Jul 6, 2024 18:20:52 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

He has  a massive personal brand, are you genuinely oblivious to just how prominent he was as Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party?

Not at all but that wouldn’t necessarily translate into his local campaign, all credit to him as it clearly has

Gullis was also deputy chairman. Did not seem to help him

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 6, 2024 18:47:55 GMT noorderling said:

Jul 6, 2024 18:43:06 GMT stb12 said:

Not at all but that wouldn’t necessarily translate into his local campaign, all credit to him as it clearly has

Gullis was also deputy chairman. Did not seem to help him

That is because Gullis does not have Anderson's skills, did not use the position the way Anderson did and thus no one knows who he is. The position gave Anderson a platform, and boy did he use it.

[batman]

and Ben Bradley too

[johnloony]

Jun 18, 2024 20:23:52 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 18, 2024 17:07:29 GMT YL said:

The Ipsos MRP has Anderson holding on with over 60% of the vote. It appears to be taking no account whatsoever of Zadrozny, however.

FWIW, my predikshun for Ashfield is a relatively easy Labour gain. The Zadrozny vote is essentially what the Lib Dems would get in a good result (i.e. nowhere near winning) and is based in success in local elections (i.e. not a big enough turnout to win in parliamentary elections), whereas the Conservative and Reform vote is fairly evenly split. It is an example of where one has to be careful not to get carried away with making excitable predictions just because there is an MP who has defected, or just because there is a prominent local weirdo independent, or (in this case) both. When it comes to the crunch, voters will merely soberly and calmly do what people are doing everywhere else: voting Labour in order to kick out the incumbent Conservative (only slightly stretching the definition of “incumbent”).

bump

[batman]

A lot of us got this wrong. Anderson didn't appear to be popular when he was a Tory MP & it seems his switch of party may have saved his seat. Reform UK weren't all that close to winning any other coalfield seats; Llanelli which I think still has an ex-mining element was about the closest.

[stb12]

Jul 11, 2024 13:07:12 GMT batman said:

A lot of us got this wrong. Anderson didn't appear to be popular when he was a Tory MP & it seems his switch of party may have saved his seat. Reform UK weren't all that close to winning any other coalfield seats; Llanelli which I think still has an ex-mining element was about the closest.

Its impressive as well that with 43% of the vote he didn’t even have to rely that much on a split opposition vote (albeit obviously still to some extent)

[peterski]

Jul 11, 2024 13:07:12 GMT batman said:

A lot of us got this wrong. Anderson didn't appear to be popular when he was a Tory MP & it seems his switch of party may have saved his seat. Reform UK weren't all that close to winning any other coalfield seats; Llanelli which I think still has an ex-mining element was about the closest.

Surely a large chunk of Reform's best perfomances were in ex-coalfield seats (Easington,Barnsley North and South, Makerfield ,Amber Valley,Pontefract,Castleford & Knottingley, Sunderland South & Houghton etc) and whilst not won this time they are in striking distance for the next election should circumstances allow. Ashfield may be more of a portent than an outlier.

[Sibboleth]

Striking distance only if you are innumerate. The Labour leads in the bulk of those constituencies were around or about (and sometimes higher than!) the national Labour lead over Reform (20pts), and we know that Reform has quite a hard and low ceiling on its support levels, absent special factors. If we're in trouble in those next time then we're getting flattened by the electorate full stop.