Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Mar 19, 2024 20:21:50 GMT
Zadrozny wins the seat at the General Election then is forced to resign a few months later following the trial, Anderson wins the subsequent by-election... probably not but stranger things have happened
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Mar 19, 2024 22:48:06 GMT
My expectation here is something along the lines of Lab 40%, Ind 20%, Con 15%, Rfm 15%. Similar to the 2015 result.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 19, 2024 22:55:38 GMT
The trouble with constituencies like this one is that there is usually a fundamental contradiction between what would be fun for us psephologists and what would be likely in real life. The former would be a four-way marginal result with a very low percentage for the winning candidate. The latter would be a boring normal contest between Labour and Conservative, with Zadrozny and Reform in a distant 3rd and 4th place.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Mar 20, 2024 7:26:19 GMT
The trouble with constituencies like this one is that there is usually a fundamental contradiction between what would be fun for us psephologists and what would be likely in real life. The former would be a four-way marginal result with a very low percentage for the winning candidate. The latter would be a boring normal contest between Labour and Conservative, with Zadrozny and Reform in a distant 3rd and 4th place. Perhaps, but Zadrozny's track record does not suggest that he is likely to come a distant third or fourth, and barring a big recovery I don't see the Tories as being in contention. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Mar 20, 2024 8:47:36 GMT
The trouble with constituencies like this one is that there is usually a fundamental contradiction between what would be fun for us psephologists and what would be likely in real life. The former would be a four-way marginal result with a very low percentage for the winning candidate. The latter would be a boring normal contest between Labour and Conservative, with Zadrozny and Reform in a distant 3rd and 4th place. But with c. 500 constituencies in England a tiny percentage of them are likely to be genuinely odd. With the Ashfield Independents having done so well in the council elections and doing creditably in previous Generals this one is on the top of the list for being one of the odd constituencies. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Mar 21, 2024 6:35:14 GMT
Given the Ashfield Independents are basically ‘Team Jason Zadrozny’, and Mr Zadrozny clearly wants to be a MP, why would they run someone else? That's my running assumption as to why they wouldn't back Anderson, or even show any signs of being interested. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Mar 21, 2024 6:36:26 GMT
Zadrozny wins the seat at the General Election then is forced to resign a few months later following the trial, Anderson wins the subsequent by-election... probably not but stranger things have happened I was looking at what Zadrozny is in trouble for and - while not as explosive as before - it's going to be much harder to get away from that rap. Four counts of dodging income tax (among other charges) sounds like there's going to be a formidable paper trail at least for the tax offences. While it may not affect the election, if he does win this I agree a subsequent by-election is rather likely. www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/jason-zadrozny-unwilling-answer-questions-8547984 |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Mar 22, 2024 16:08:23 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 11, 2024 9:31:51 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 11, 2024 9:49:43 GMT
Doesn't mean there won't be Reform UK candidates in their constituencies though.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 11, 2024 10:48:40 GMT
Said article seems to have disappeared - was it based around yet another vox pop mostly featuring pensioners in a town centre during working hours? |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Apr 11, 2024 10:50:37 GMT
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Ashfield
Apr 11, 2024 11:11:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 11, 2024 11:11:39 GMT
That explains this then.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Apr 11, 2024 11:15:20 GMT
Do the Conservatives not have a rule about endorsing someone against an official party candidate like Labour do? Because that pretty much sounds like an endorsement of Anderson |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 11, 2024 11:18:01 GMT
Do the Conservatives not have a rule about endorsing someone against an official party candidate like Labour do? Because that pretty much sounds like an endorsement of Anderson That's what I thought. I wouldn't be surprised if it's fudged just enough though |
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Post by batman on Apr 11, 2024 12:04:55 GMT
He probably would have to say explicitly Vote for Lee Anderson for action to be taken against him - this is implicit rather than explicit
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Ashfield
Apr 11, 2024 12:32:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by mrsir on Apr 11, 2024 12:32:36 GMT
Fletcher continues to stretch the boundaries of Doncaster.
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 1, 2024 7:34:19 GMT
CON: Debbie Soloman
Chairman of Rushcliffe Association. Rushcliffe borough councillor since 2023. Fought Bassetlaw for Brexit Party in 2019 GE
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2024 19:14:31 GMT
I reckon 30p Lee might hold on here. He wouldn't even need that many votes - just look at what Labour won with in 2010.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 7, 2024 6:51:53 GMT
A focus group made up of people who have already decided to switch to reform have positive views about reform.
That really tells us diddly squat about anything.
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