Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 1, 2022 15:34:53 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. Well, in some ways that's a relief - I'd have felt bad about mis-identifying the wrong Norman Macdonald and potentially having misled my fellow predictors if he'd completely bombed... |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 1, 2022 15:39:27 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. Well, in some ways that's a relief - I'd have felt bad about mis-identifying the wrong Norman Macdonald and potentially having misled my fellow predictors if he'd completely bombed... Of course, maybe the electorate were equally confused. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 1, 2022 15:45:50 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. That's very encouraging for us, given that it was the first time we'd stood for ages, if ever, here. It's interesting to see quite respectable votes in places we didn't win, and didn't expect to, from the Western Isles to Croydon, Almost as encouraging as the two spectacular wins, Perhaps it backs up the rise in the polls. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 1, 2022 15:48:13 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. 1 vote, really? He probably voted for himself…..and no-one else knew who he was. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 1, 2022 15:59:37 GMT
Buckinghamshire: Bernwood - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2017 | | Liberal Democrat | 1,158 | 38.7% | +21.4% | +24.0% | from nowhere | | Green | 1.030 | 34.4% | -3.9% | -1.0% | +3.5% | | Conservative | 723 | 24.1% | -9.8% | -14.8% | -23.2% | | Labour | 85 | 2.8% | -7.7% | -8.2% | -13.1% | | UKIP |
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| -5.9% | | Total votes | 2,996 |
| 61% | 73% | 96% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 15½% / 19½% since 2021 Council now: 112 Conservative, 16 Liberal Democrat, 6 Independent, 6 Wycombe Independent, 4 Labour, 2 Independent Network, 1 Green Croydon: South Croydon - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Conservative | 1,306 | 42.9% | +2.9% | +2.1% | -4.4% | -4.3% | | Labour | 821 | 27.0% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -5.9% | -7.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 448 | 14.7% | +0.6% | +0.9% | +5.9% | +6.9% | | Green | 269 | 8.8% | -5.5% | -4.6% | -0.1% | +0.4% | | Independent Pelling | 158 | 5.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 25 | 0.8% | -1.6% | -1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Samuel | 18 | 0.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.5% | -1.6% | | Total votes | 3,045 |
| 64% | 68% | 61% | 65% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 2½% / 2¼% since May and ¾% / 1½% since 2018 Council now: 34 Labour, 33 Conservative, 2 Green, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green East Yorkshire: Bridlington North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 B | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,950 | 57.1% | +14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 1,077 | 31.5% | +4.9% | -39.5% | -38.8% | -4.6% | +0.3% | | Labour | 171 | 5.0% | +0.6% | -23.9% | -24.7% | -15.8% | -17.4% | | SDP | 125 | 3.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Yorkshire | 93 | 2.7% | -8.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -6.4% |
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| -25.3% | -27.2% | | Independent Dixon |
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| -4.1% |
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| -17.8% | -19.1% | | Independent Robson |
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| -2.5% |
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| | Independent Milns |
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| -1.9% |
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| | Total votes | 3,416 |
| 112% | 116% | 119% | 40% | 43% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4¾% since 2019 by-election, otherwise not meaningful Council now: 43 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 7 Independent Group, 2 Independent, 2 Yorkshire, 1 vacancy Eilean Siar: Barraigh agus Bhatarsaigh - Independent MacNeil elected at second stage based on first preference votes
| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | | Independent MacNeil | 189 | 49.3% | | No Description MacDonald | 181 | 47.3% | | Independent MacMillan | 13 | 3.4% | | Total votes | 383 |
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Council now: 22 Independent, 6 SNP, 1 Conservative Eilean Sira: Sgir Uige agus Carlabhagh - Independent MacDonald elected at sixth stage based on first preference votes| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | | Independent Macdonald | 222 | 35.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 128 | 20.4% | | Independent Brown | 113 | 18.0% | | SNP | 96 | 15.3% | | Green | 57 | 9.1% | | Independent MacLeod | 11 | 1.8% | | Independent MacKinnon | 1 | 0.2% | | Total votes | 628 |
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Council now: 22 Independent, 6 SNP. 1 Conservative
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 1, 2022 16:00:14 GMT
Liverpool: Fazakerley - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Labour | 1,365 | 57.5% | -9.7% | -19.6% | -25.6% | -15.2% | | Independent Wharton | 638 | 26.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 290 | 12.2% | +0.4% | +7.6% | +8.2% | +1.9% | | Green | 79 | 3.3% | -5.7% | -5.1% | -1.0% | -1.5% | | Conservative |
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| -7.2% | -6.5% | -6.6% | -3.0% | | Liberal |
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| -4.7% | -3.3% | -1.8% |
| | UKIP |
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| -9.1% | | Total votes | 2,372 |
| 83% | 96% | 89% | 83% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 61 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat, 8 Liverpool Community Independent, 5 Liberal, 4 Green, 1 Independent Middlesbrough: Berwick Hills & Pallister - Labour gain from Independent| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 361 | 56.8% | +26.5% | +26.5% | -0.3% | +2.9% | | Independent | 204 | 32.1% | -32.1% | -32.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 53 | 8.3% | +2.8% | +2.8% | -1.8% | -2.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 11 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 7 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -32.7% | -35.2% | | Total votes | 636 |
| 52% | 61% | 30% | 32% |
Swing: Independent to Labour 29¼% since 2019 and, if meaningful 16¼% / 19% since 2015 Council now: 21 Labour, 10 Middlesbrough Independent Association, 9 Middlesbrough Independent Group, 3 Conservative, 3 Independent Newark & Sherwood: Ollerton - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 962 | 64.9% | +0.6% | +1.6% | +3.2% | -0.1% | -1.1% | | Conservative | 395 | 27.7% | -9.0% | -10.1% | -11.7% | -8.3% | -7.3% | | Independent Spry | 125 | 8.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,482 |
| 84% | 90% | 62% | 40% | 43% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 4¾% / 5¾% since 2019, 7½% since 2017 by-election and 4% / 3% since 2015 Council now: 29 Conservative, 6 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent, 1 vacancy South Derbyshire: Midway - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 600 | 52.6% | +14.8% | +14.2% | +14.1% | +13.2% | | Conservative | 540 | 47.4% | +9.1% | +11.0% | +11.3% | +10.8% | | UKIP |
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| -23.9% | -25.2% | -25.4% | -24.0% | | Total votes | 1,140 |
| 63% | 67% | 30% | 31% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 2¾% / 1½% since 2019 and 1½% / 1¼% since 2015 Council now: 16 Conservative, 16 Labour, 2 Independent, 2 non-grouped Wyre: Cleveleys Park - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 721 | 53.7% | -9.0% | -9.7% | +7.1% | +6.4% | | Labour | 621 | 46.3% | +9.0% | +9.7% | +12.3% | +13.1% | | UKIP |
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| -19.4% | -19.6% | | Total votes | 1,342 |
| 107% | 109% | 54% | Row 5 column 7 |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 9% / 9¾% since 2019 and 2½% / 3¼% since 2015 Council now 36 Conservative, 8 Labour, 3 Wyre Alliance, 3 Wyre Residents, 1 vacancy
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jul 1, 2022 20:57:28 GMT
Shouldn't that be 4, or is there somerhing I don't understand? Of course if 12 had gome to MacDonald, that would have been the interesting scenario.... Indeed - I hadn't noticed the quoted quota and had worked it out from the votes cast - including invalid votes in calculating the quota is an interesting quirk that makes no sense to me and not one I'd noticed before, so like minionofmidas I have no idea where it come from... The rejected votes are not included in the quota calculation. See the rules (read them and understand them!  ). |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 2, 2022 9:48:42 GMT
Delayed due to the late result from Eilean Siar - which in the end made no difference to the scores
Good Week/Bad Week Index
Lab +158
LDm +115
Grn -6
Con -127
Adjusted Seat Value
Lab +2.6
LDm +1.9
Grn -0.1
Con -2.1
Full explanation of GWBWI: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16159/good-week-bad-index
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 2, 2022 11:01:02 GMT
Indeed - I hadn't noticed the quoted quota and had worked it out from the votes cast - including invalid votes in calculating the quota is an interesting quirk that makes no sense to me and not one I'd noticed before, so like minionofmidas I have no idea where it come from... The rejected votes are not included in the quota calculation. See the rules (read them and understand them! ). Tell that to the people at the Barra count, because they did it wrong on the declaration sheet (in their defence, it was in a foreign language).  They got it right on Lewis. Though they also claimed Misty was elected at count 6, ie only after everybody else was eliminated. On the plus side, this likely answers La Fontaine's question. He did reach the quota on count 2. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 2, 2022 11:07:31 GMT
The rejected votes are not included in the quota calculation. See the rules (read them and understand them! ). Tell that to the people at the Barra count, because they did it wrong on the declaration sheet (in their defence, it was in a foreign language). They got it right on Lewis. Though they also claimed Misty was elected at count 6, ie only after everybody else was eliminated. On the plus side, this likely answers La Fontaine's question. He did reach the quota on count 2. I'm surprised that the form isn't bilingual. |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jul 2, 2022 14:46:41 GMT
The rejected votes are not included in the quota calculation. See the rules (read them and understand them! ). Tell that to the people at the Barra count, because they did it wrong on the declaration sheet (in their defence, it was in a foreign language). They got it right on Lewis. Though they also claimed Misty was elected at count 6, ie only after everybody else was eliminated. On the plus side, this likely answers La Fontaine's question. He did reach the quota on count 2. I hadn't looked at the official paperwork but that's poor on their part. The declaration sheet was in English as can be seen on the council's tweet. Which foreign language did you think it was in? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 2, 2022 15:37:53 GMT
Tell that to the people at the Barra count, because they did it wrong on the declaration sheet (in their defence, it was in a foreign language). They got it right on Lewis. Though they also claimed Misty was elected at count 6, ie only after everybody else was eliminated. On the plus side, this likely answers La Fontaine 's question. He did reach the quota on count 2. I hadn't looked at the official paperwork but that's poor on their part. The declaration sheet was in English as can be seen on the council's tweet. Which foreign language did you think it was in? English.
I see you got that tweet-display problem - there's an image in my post. Which is the image from the council's tweet.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 2, 2022 17:22:06 GMT
That’s a stupid declaration sheet because it doesn’t even have the result on it -i.e. the number of votes for each candidate at each round.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 2, 2022 20:05:30 GMT
That’s a stupid declaration sheet because it doesn’t even have the result on it -i.e. the number of votes for each candidate at each round. yeah, they get around to releasing those "reports" eventually. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Jul 3, 2022 21:13:16 GMT
That’s a stupid declaration sheet because it doesn’t even have the result on it -i.e. the number of votes for each candidate at each round. yeah, they get around to releasing those "reports" eventually. Well let's hope so. It's not clear whether they used eCounting or counted manually. There's (another) problem with eCounting which is the lack of mention in the standard declaration of the final result - i.e. the head-to-head of the two remaining candidates. This leads to lack of mention in press coverage. In one recent by-election, the press failed to even mention who the runner-up was. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 3, 2022 22:09:23 GMT
yeah, they get around to releasing those "reports" eventually. Well let's hope so. It's not clear whether they used eCounting or counted manually. There's (another) problem with eCounting which is the lack of mention in the standard declaration of the final result - i.e. the head-to-head of the two remaining candidates. This leads to lack of mention in press coverage. In one recent by-election, the press failed to even mention who the runner-up was. yeah, the Uigg and Carloway by election should have some interesting transfers and I've not seen anything on them yet. But while the press may not care, the data are always released eventually. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2022 10:14:47 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. 1 vote, really? Has this been confirmed as correct? Indeed pretty incredible if so. |
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Post by grahammurray on Jul 4, 2022 10:22:11 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. 1 vote, really? Splitter! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 4, 2022 10:24:41 GMT
He probably voted for himself…..and no-one else knew who he was. Or everybody knew he was. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 4, 2022 14:37:26 GMT
Has this been confirmed as correct? yes. |
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