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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 1, 2022 10:54:00 GMT
South Croydon ward: I predict: Conservative 1,300 (45%) Labour 700 (24%) Lib Dem 500 (17%) Pelling 170 (6%) Green 170 (6%) UKIP 40 (1.3%) Samuel 20 (0.7%) turnout 2,900 (23%) electorate c.12,465 caveat: polling station votes are often substantially different from postal votes. If the polling-station votes were in the same proportions for the parties as the postal votes, it would be approximately Con 50% Lab 20% 15%. If the polling-station votes are in different proportions from the postal votes, allow for the possibility that: (a) it might be close between Con and Lab (but not to the extent of Labour actually winning), or (b) it might be close for 2nd/3rd place between Labour and Lib Dem (possibly even to the extent that Lib Dem might be in 2nd place, ahead of Labour) (c) but not both (a) and (b). Likely to be close between Pelling and Green for 4th/5th place (perhaps about 6% or 7% each). Likely to be close between UKIP in 6th place and Samuel in 7th place (but only 1%-2% and 0%-1% respectively). turnouts in the 6 polling stations were: SNC1 up to 5pm: 88 SNC2 up to 5pm: 127 SNC3 up to 4pm: 172 SNC4 up to 5pm: 194 SNC5 up to 4pm: 142 SNC6 up to 4pm: 156 turnout of postal votes was 1,013 up to 8pm today. The turnout up to 5pm is usually about half of the total turnout up to 10pm (not counting postal votes), so that suggests a total turnout of perhaps about 2,900. P.S. I have been laughing at the people predicting a Labour win, or substantial percentages for Mark Samuel. What time did the count start? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 1, 2022 11:01:35 GMT
Maybe a better result than it looks given the size of the UKIP vote even in 2019. there was only one UKIP candidate though. Did their voters all waste their other two votes or did they just split their other votes fairly equally (no single Tory or Labour candidate had a marked personal vote)? Edit, looks up the numbers: eh, not that marked. Their presence would still likely have taken votes more from the Tories overall. |
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Post by olympian95 on Jul 1, 2022 11:08:18 GMT
South Croydon is a Tory hold
SC By election results
1306 T
25 MS
448 LD
158 Pelling
18 UKIP
821 Labour
269 Green
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Post by matureleft on Jul 1, 2022 11:12:11 GMT
Apparently the result in Midway, South Derbyshire is : Labour 600 Conservative 540. Maybe a better result than it looks given the size of the UKIP vote even in 2019. Roughly what I’d have expected. It’s a mixed area - quite a lot of 1950s local authority housing, some modern private stock, some older private stock from the 1950s to the 1980s. The additional housing has (as elsewhere in the Swadlincote urban area) helped to alter the political balance somewhat. But it should, properly fought, be a reasonably comfortable Labour ward in times like this. The turnout gives a clue - 18.48%. It looks like a fairly casual “campaign” on both sides. Hard fought campaigns aren’t natural in most of South Derbyshire and old habits - the odd leaflet and a loudhailer - may still prevail (they certainly did 20 years ago!). |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 1, 2022 11:23:49 GMT
Maybe a better result than it looks given the size of the UKIP vote even in 2019. Roughly what I’d have expected. It’s a mixed area - quite a lot of 1950s local authority housing, some modern private stock, some older private stock from the 1950s to the 1980s. The additional housing has (as elsewhere in the Swadlincote urban area) helped to alter the political balance somewhat. But it should, properly fought, be a reasonably comfortable Labour ward in times like this. The turnout gives a clue - 18.48%. It looks like a fairly casual “campaign” on both sides. Hard fought campaigns aren’t natural in most of South Derbyshire and old habits - the odd leaflet and a loudhailer - may still prevail (they certainly did 20 years ago!). I think it’s a fairly predictable result. Something for both parties to be reasonably ok with. Labour that they can win/ gain in areas like that, and the Tories that even at times of unpopularity they can still get close in an area that wouldn’t have been close in the 1990s. I saw a few pictures of Derby Labour councillors campaigning there |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2022 11:28:57 GMT
South Croydon
electorate 12,433
turnout 3,051 (24.5%)
spoilt 5
Danielle Denton (Con) 1,306 (42.9%)
Ben Taylor (Lab) 821 (27.0%)
John Jefkins (LD) 448 (14.7%)
Peter Underwood (Green) 269 (8.8%)
Andrew Pelling (Ind) 158 (5.2%)
Kathleen Garner (UKIP) 25 (0.8%)
Mark Samuel (Ind) 18 (0.6%)
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2022 11:31:06 GMT
South Croydon is a Tory hold SC By election results 1306 T 25 MS 448 LD 158 Pelling 18 UKIP 821 Labour 269 Green You’re obviously a hippopotamusesque buffoon if you think that “T” is the abbreviation for “Conservative” and if you got UKIP and Mark Samuel the wrong way round. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2022 11:37:09 GMT
South Croydon electorate 12,433 turnout 3,051 (24.5%) spoilt 5 Danielle Denton (Con) 1,306 (42.9%) Ben Taylor (Lab) 821 (27.0%) John Jefkins (LD) 448 (14.7%) Peter Underwood (Green) 269 (8.8%) Andrew Pelling (Ind) 158 (5.2%) Kathleen Garner (UKIP) 25 (0.8%) Mark Samuel (Ind) 18 (0.6%) About what I expected, although a minor joy is that Green Party got substantially more than Andrew Pelling (haha). The polling-station votes must have been something like Con 800 Lab 600 LD 300 |
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Post by olympian95 on Jul 1, 2022 11:37:19 GMT
sorry!
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Post by froome on Jul 1, 2022 11:50:50 GMT
Being called a hippopotamusesque buffoon by Mr Loony should be worn as a badge of honour.  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 1, 2022 12:24:44 GMT
In case not seen, Bridlington votes
Jonathan BIBB Conservatives 1,077 31.5%
David BUTLAND Labour 171 5.0%
Jayne PHOENIX Liberal Democrats 1,950 Elected 57.1%
Kimberley THOMAS Yorkshire Party 93 2.7%
Carlo VERDA Social Democratic Party 125 3.7%
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 1, 2022 14:00:15 GMT
In case not seen, Bridlington votes Jonathan BIBB Conservatives 1,077 31.5% David BUTLAND Labour 171 5.0% Jayne PHOENIX Liberal Democrats 1,950 Elected 57.1% Kimberley THOMAS Yorkshire Party 93 2.7% Carlo VERDA Social Democratic Party 125 3.7% All of which makes the SDP's "barchart" look very silly indeed. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 1, 2022 14:07:55 GMT
In case not seen, Bridlington votes Jonathan BIBB Conservatives 1,077 31.5% David BUTLAND Labour 171 5.0% Jayne PHOENIX Liberal Democrats 1,950 Elected 57.1% Kimberley THOMAS Yorkshire Party 93 2.7% Carlo VERDA Social Democratic Party 125 3.7% All of which makes the SDP's "barchart" look very silly indeed. Pot meet Kettle |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 1, 2022 14:21:36 GMT
All of which makes the SDP's "barchart" look very silly indeed. Pot meet Kettle Hmm, we do tend to have some numbers to base our charts on, they seem to have decided to do without such fripperies. Or Frippertronics.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 1, 2022 14:25:28 GMT
The outstanding Western Isles count started at 2pm
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 1, 2022 14:49:59 GMT
Hmm, we do tend to have some numbers to base our charts on, they seem to have decided to do without such fripperies. Or Frippertronics. Ths was obviously based on their canvass returns. They met two people, one said they might vote for them, one was definitely a Tory. They kept well away from any areas where the might encounter a Lib Dem, as that might have spoiled their chart . Anybody that produces a chart like that is a disgrace. All libdem bar charts I have encountered have been much better than that. I assume the long standing myth of the dodgy LD barchart is based on some real examples but I don't ever remember seeing anything as blatant as the Bridlington SDP. If there were any such I guess it was some very small scale operation who have a vague idea about what's required but don't really understand. Thinking charitably maybe that is what the SDP is in this case. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 1, 2022 15:22:55 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result:
Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%)
LD - 128 (20.4%)
Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%)
SNP - 96 (15.3%)
Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%)
Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%)
Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%)
Macdonald elected at Stage 6.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 1, 2022 15:28:07 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. 1 vote, really? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 1, 2022 15:29:30 GMT
Sgir Uig agus Carlabhagh result: Ind (Macdonald) - 222 (35.4%) LD - 128 (20.4%) Ind (Brown) - 113 (18.0%) SNP - 96 (15.3%) Scottish Green - 57 (9.1%) Ind (MacLeod) - 11 (1.8%) Ind (MacKinnon) - 1 (0.2%) Macdonald elected at Stage 6. That's very encouraging for us, given that it was the first time we'd stood for ages, if ever, here. |
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Post by bungle on Jul 1, 2022 15:32:33 GMT
Hard fought campaigns aren’t natural in most of South Derbyshire and old habits - the odd leaflet and a loudhailer - may still prevail (they certainly did 20 years ago!). I saw via Twitter there was a fair bit of canvassing activity - a couple of Swad area councillors, Young Labour & councillors from Derby and, of course, the stalwart presence of Alan Jones. Not sure of the scale of the GOTV operation but certainly no evidence of loudhailers. They were frowned upon as far back as 1997 by certain South Derbyshire activists and candidates...but orders from Millbank resulted in a couple of us blasting the rural areas with D:Ream. I recall it was a Tony Blair tape for middle class areas, John Prescott for council estates |
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