Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,306
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 1, 2022 6:59:18 GMT
I thought they would do quite well, but probably more at our expense than the Tories and let the Tories through the middle, but I'm maybe just a pessimist. In the end it was the Tories who suffered most and they did well enough to take the seat - a very good result for them.
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Jul 1, 2022 7:02:31 GMT
Result from the Western Isles.
WARD 1 - BARRAIGH AGUS BHATARSAIGH
TURN OUT- 39.6%
TOTAL VOTES- 385 (2 REJECTED)
QUOTA- 193
GERARD MACDONALD - 181
CALUM MACMILLAN - 13
IAIN A MACNEIL - 189
IAIN A (TAM) MACNEIL ELECTED AT STAGE 2
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 1, 2022 7:09:52 GMT
Yes, I never expected the SDP to beat the Yorkshire Party. Evidently the Yorkshire Party has something to learn about bar charts! |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 1, 2022 7:11:15 GMT
Wow, did not see that one coming. And from the looks of it, nor did anyone else here. I didn’t, until I belatedly read that the Lib Dem candidate was the retired headteacher of one of the village primary schools. Like being the retired local GP.. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2022 7:28:04 GMT
Apparently the result in Midway, South Derbyshire is : Labour 600 Conservative 540.
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Post by bungle on Jul 1, 2022 7:29:52 GMT
Midway, South Derbyshire
Lab 600 52.6%
Con 540 47.4%
Lab gain from Con
I see after Bucks that most people are rehabilitated in the prediction competition with this result
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Post by arnieg on Jul 1, 2022 7:31:11 GMT
I didn’t, until I belatedly read that the Lib Dem candidate was the retired headteacher of one of the village primary schools. Like being the retired local GP.. But with a GP as my local Councillor I wouldn't rate my chances of getting a surgery appointment. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 1, 2022 8:10:05 GMT
Result from the Western Isles. WARD 1 - BARRAIGH AGUS BHATARSAIGH TURN OUT- 39.6% TOTAL VOTES- 385 (2 REJECTED) QUOTA- 193 GERARD MACDONALD - 181 CALUM MACMILLAN - 13 IAIN A MACNEIL - 189 IAIN A (TAM) MACNEIL ELECTED AT STAGE 2 judging by Andrew's Previews tgis is quite a whopper as well. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 1, 2022 8:39:22 GMT
A stunning Lib Dem result in Bucks. I knew they were working it but it looked a tough nut to crack and I think it was a small core team. I do have a theory that moving away from the area - in this case to Canada - is about the most toxic reason for calling a by-election as you've snubbed the area. So no surprise the Tory vote cratered. But even then in true blue Bucks, and a group of pretty villages that are not easy to get around or between, to be out of the picture and the fight left to 2 challenger parties is a shocking effort - especially with the MP for MK North out on the campaign trail.
I'm not as convinced as others that retired head-teacher is all that - remember Tory candidate Helen Hurford in Tiverton was also a retired head-teacher (although since left teaching and opened a beauty parlour.) Didn't seem to do the Tories a lot of good there.
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Post by dundas on Jul 1, 2022 8:46:06 GMT
A stunning Lib Dem result in Bucks. I knew they were working it but it looked a tough nut to crack and I think it was a small core team. I do have a theory that moving away from the area - in this case to Canada - is about the most toxic reason for calling a by-election as you've snubbed the area. So no surprise the Tory vote cratered. But even then in true blue Bucks, and a group of pretty villages that are not easy to get around or between, to be out of the picture and the fight left to 2 challenger parties is a shocking effort - especially with the MP for MK North out on the campaign trail. I'm not as convinced as others that retired head-teacher is all that - remember Tory candidate Helen Hurford in Tiverton was also a retired head-teacher (although since left teaching and opened a beauty parlour.) Didn't seem to do the Tories a lot of good there. It'd make more difference in a local election, surely, as a far higher proportion of people will know who are. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Jul 1, 2022 8:54:28 GMT
Result from the Western Isles. WARD 1 - BARRAIGH AGUS BHATARSAIGH TURN OUT- 39.6% TOTAL VOTES- 385 (2 REJECTED) QUOTA- 193 GERARD MACDONALD - 181 CALUM MACMILLAN - 13 IAIN A MACNEIL - 189 IAIN A (TAM) MACNEIL ELECTED AT STAGE 2 Mildly interested in whether or not the winner reached the quota. Can't find it on council website. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,306
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 1, 2022 9:18:34 GMT
Result from the Western Isles. WARD 1 - BARRAIGH AGUS BHATARSAIGH TURN OUT- 39.6% TOTAL VOTES- 385 (2 REJECTED) QUOTA- 193 GERARD MACDONALD - 181 CALUM MACMILLAN - 13 IAIN A MACNEIL - 189 IAIN A (TAM) MACNEIL ELECTED AT STAGE 2 Mildly interested in whether or not the winner reached the quota. Can't find it on council website. It will probably be up later - would have required 3 votes to transfer out of 13, so I would guess chances are that he did... |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 1, 2022 9:28:45 GMT
Mildly interested in whether or not the winner reached the quota. Can't find it on council website. It will probably be up later - would have required 3 votes to transfer out of 13, so I would guess chances are that he did... Shouldn't that be 4, or is there somerhing I don't understand? Of course if 12 had gome to MacDonald, that would have been the interesting scenario.... |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 1, 2022 9:34:58 GMT
It will probably be up later - would have required 3 votes to transfer out of 13, so I would guess chances are that he did... Shouldn't that be 4, or is there somerhing I don't understand? two invalid votes. The quota should be 192. (No idea whether the error is the law's, the returning officer's, or just the poster'd or his source's.) |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,306
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 1, 2022 9:41:00 GMT
It will probably be up later - would have required 3 votes to transfer out of 13, so I would guess chances are that he did... Shouldn't that be 4, or is there somerhing I don't understand? Of course if 12 had gome to MacDonald, that would have been the interesting scenario.... Indeed - I hadn't noticed the quoted quota and had worked it out from the votes cast - including invalid votes in calculating the quota is an interesting quirk that makes no sense to me and not one I'd noticed before, so like minionofmidas I have no idea where it come from... |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2022 10:16:46 GMT
Shouldn't that be 4, or is there somerhing I don't understand? two invalid votes. The quota should be 192. (No idea whether the error is the law's, the returning officer's, or just the poster'd or his source's.) The total valid vote is 383. Under proper AV rules, that should mean that the quota is 50% of that, i.e. 191.5, being rounded up to make 192 as a whole number. The problem is that a lot of people who aren’t as geeky as us, and who don’t understand AV or STV properly, think that you have to add +1 to the 50% in order to calculate the quota. It is possible that the law has been written such that the quota has to be calculated as 50% (191.5), plus 1 (192.5) and then rounded up (193). What we do know is that the law on local elections in Scotland has been written such that if the winning candidate has already won but with fewer votes than the quota (due to the number of non-transferable votes), then they have to eliminate the highest-scoring losing candidate and transfer their votes to the winner, even after the last two candidates have already lost and won (respectively). Sensible Returning Officers ignore this rule and don’t bother with the redundant final round of transfers. Nonsensible R.O.s allow the computer to do it, including the final round. If the law has been written deficiently in the latter case, I guess it has probably been written deficiently in the former case as well. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 1, 2022 10:28:50 GMT
Apparently the result in Midway, South Derbyshire is : Labour 600 Conservative 540. Maybe a better result than it looks given the size of the UKIP vote even in 2019. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Jul 1, 2022 10:30:59 GMT
two invalid votes. The quota should be 192. (No idea whether the error is the law's, the returning officer's, or just the poster'd or his source's.) The total valid vote is 383. Under proper AV rules, that should mean that the quota is 50% of that, i.e. 191.5, being rounded up to make 192 as a whole number. The problem is that a lot of people who aren’t as geeky as us, and who don’t understand AV or STV properly, think that you have to add +1 to the 50% in order to calculate the quota. It is possible that the law has been written such that the quota has to be calculated as 50% (191.5), plus 1 (192.5) and then rounded up (193). What we do know is that the law on local elections in Scotland has been written such that if the winning candidate has already won but with fewer votes than the quota (due to the number of non-transferable votes), then they have to eliminate the highest-scoring losing candidate and transfer their votes to the winner, even after the last two candidates have already lost and won (respectively). Sensible Returning Officers ignore this rule and don’t bother with the redundant final round of transfers. Nonsensible R.O.s allow the computer to do it, including the final round. If the law has been written deficiently in the latter case, I guess it has probably been written deficiently in the former case as well. It's not the law, it's a software fault in eCounting. This is well-known, but the Scottish government is in denial. Some ROs, as you say, are sensible and don't use eCounting in by-elections |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2022 10:44:12 GMT
Apparently the result in Midway, South Derbyshire is : Labour 600 Conservative 540. Maybe a better result than it looks given the size of the UKIP vote even in 2019. Also, Labour has done particularly badly in the old Leicestershire & South Derbyshire coalfields in the last 2-3 years, even compared with some other areas. This will be quite reassuring that the support has not permanently disappeared, that there still is an electoral future for the party in that part of the world. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 1, 2022 10:50:20 GMT
Apparently the result in Midway, South Derbyshire is : Labour 600 Conservative 540. Maybe a better result than it looks given the size of the UKIP vote even in 2019. there was only one UKIP candidate though. Did their voters all waste their other two votes or did they just split their other votes fairly equally (no single Tory or Labour candidate had a marked personal vote)? Edit, looks up the numbers: eh, not that marked. |
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