Welsh Parliament is set to expand

[Penddu]

I have submitted three proposed alternatives to boundary commission -
1. Combining Ynys Môn with Dwyfor Meirionydd instead of Bangor Aberconwy, and shuffling the north Wales seats around
2. Combining Brecon with Caerfyrddin instead of Swansea East & Neath, with limited reshuffle around Llanelli & Swansea
3. Combining Brecon with Monmouthshire instead of Swansea East & Neath, but with a major reshuffle across south Wales.

Alternative regional names proposed including West Glamorgan, Central Glamorgan, North Glamorgan etc.

Anybody else??

[swanseaoptimist]

Brecon with Swansea East & Neath is by far the most sensible of the options on offer. It integrates in the Swansea valley (brings Neath back together) and avoids other weird combinations (like Gower & Llanelli). Yes it's a stupidly large and disparate seat but that is a problem with the system.

Agree with you on the N Wales 'shuffle'.

[srijan]

Combining Ynys Môn with Bangor Aberconwy is largely a decision related to the fact that's the only direct road connection (not that it stopped the drawing of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr in the constitiuencies), I wouldn't want to mess with them. I don't personally HATE what's been done in North Wales, though of course it could be better.
Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe going with Swansea is, as pointed out above, a measure which keeps the Swansea Valley together, which is generally a good thing. Combining Caerfyrddin and Llanelli effectively establishes a single constituency for the principal area of Carmarthenshire, which is also something I quite like.
I do agree that some of the South Wales combinations are quite poor - but they largely stem from the poor shapes of the current boundaries, which is something beyond the scope of the commission. If I wee to pinpoint changes, I'd potentially suggest changing the Cardiff seats to be East+South and West+North - combining the city centre (currently split across East and South) and creating a more suburban character seat. Monmouthshire with Torfaen is a perfect historical and cultural fit, and merging the Newport seats is nice too (though I don't care for the shape of the new West). Maybe you could make Pontypridd go with Caerphilly and merge Merthyr with Blaenau Gwent? But that's also not a great combo even if it looks better on a map.

[trickyreturns]

Sept 25, 2024 18:43:09 GMT Penddu said:

I have submitted three proposed alternatives to boundary commission -
1. Combining Ynys Môn with Dwyfor Meirionydd instead of Bangor Aberconwy, and shuffling the north Wales seats around
2. Combining Brecon with Caerfyrddin instead of Swansea East & Neath, with limited reshuffle around Llanelli & Swansea
3. Combining Brecon with Monmouthshire instead of Swansea East & Neath, but with a major reshuffle across south Wales.

Alternative regional names proposed including West Glamorgan, Central Glamorgan, North Glamorgan etc.

Anybody else??

I actually agree with the reasoning of the Boundary Commission on their proposal for N Wales.  Contiguous for an island is difficult but you need some form of order so combining the two where you have actual roads is a good place to start.  Insisting Ynys Môn goes with Dwyfor Meirionydd feels a bit culturally lazy.  And if you started in the east then Alyn, Deeside and Wrexham is more logical than anything else on that side so I'm not sure what problem you are solving there that wouldn't make things worse for that area.

[LDCaerdydd]

BBC Story covering selection process for Lab and Con:

Sitting Labour MSs might not be guaranteed reselection for the 2026 Senedd election.

They look set to face a confirmation vote by their local constituency party, which they would need to pass to be top of the list in one of the "paired" constituencies in the Senedd’s new voting system.

The Welsh Conservatives have also agreed their rules, and Members of the Senedd (MSs) would be granted the right to be at the top of their list if it is agreed by local party executives.

A grassroots official in the party told the BBC he would like to see the party go further and give members more of a say.

In previous Labour selection contests, incumbents have needed to pass a 50% threshold of Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) and affiliated bodies in order to avoid a trigger ballot.

In 2026 the 32 seats used for the recent general election will be paired to form 16 new constituencies, each returning six Senedd members, to make up an expanded 96-seat parliament.

Parties will rank up to eight candidates per seat, with places one and two the most sought after for Labour on that list as they are most likely to become MSs.

In all bar the very worst of some forecast scenarios, Labour looks set to return two members in the vast majority of constituencies.

Should a situation arise that more than one incumbent Labour MS passes the confirmation vote to sit at the top of a merged constituency list, then local party members would vote again to decide who ends up top, before filling the other vacancies.

It means that a lot could be at stake in places such as the proposed new Merthyr Tydfil, Aberdare and Pontypridd seat where current MSs Dawn Bowden, Vikki Howells and Mick Antoniw would all be expected to stand for selection.

Three MSs – Jane Bryant, John Griffiths and Rhianon Passmore - could also be chasing the coveted top two slots in the new Newport and Islwyn constituency.

A Welsh Labour spokesperson said: "We don't offer comment on internal processes such as selections."

Conservatives
For the Welsh Conservatives, sitting MSs could in theory be rejected by local party executives, forcing them to face a vote of party members.

If more than one existing MS got incumbency in one of the new larger seats, members would have to vote on how they rank at the top of the list. Regional Tory MSs can choose which seat to exercise their right in.

That has not been enough for some grassroots Tories, who think all candidates should be subject to a ballot of members to give them more of a say.

It means it could be harder for Senedd members to be uprooted ahead of an election, as Suzy Davies was at the last election when members in her area backed Tom Giffard in a ballot.

Huw Davies, Deputy Chairman of the Conservatives in South Wales East, has called for a party consultation.

He said: “Members from all corners of the party in Wales have contacted me in overwhelming support of my call to replace the new incumbency rules.

“The idea that MSs can claim incumbency rights in completely new seats under a new electoral system is universally seen as extraordinary, audacious, and indefensible.

“At the last Senedd election, members had greater choice in candidates, but these new rules have been imposed without any consultation, disregarding the views of rank-and-file members.”

BBC Wales was told that the rules were in line with previous rules drawn up by the UK party, and were agreed by the Welsh board.

One source the BBC spoke to said that the bodies that would take the decision “end up being quite large” and a “lot of people you have to win around”. In one Westminster constituency in south Wales they said twenty people are involved.

Another source, though, argued that the executives are not well staffed and that few of the membership are on them. Incumbent MSs could manoeuvre them to suit, they argued.

A separate plan to make gender quotas law was scrapped last month after it ran into repeated potential legal difficulties.

Welsh Labour are understood to be considering whether the list for any given seat will be "zipped" – in other words it would start with a woman, followed by a man, followed by another woman; or whether gender parity would be applied across the 16 seats as a whole, to allow for greater flexibility in certain seats.

Labour’s Welsh executive committee is currently deciding on the rules for 2026, with a final decision likely once the new constituency map is finalised in March 2025.

Initial plans for the 16 new constituencies were put out to consultation in September, with a review due to be published in December.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79ng71e9gwo 

In terms of Labour, I could see Mick Antoniw (born 1954) and John Griffiths (born 1956) both potentially standing down in 2026, that would avoid a potentially embarrassing selection battle where there are potentially three sitting members going for the same new six member seat. Although for Labour to comfortably remain the largest group they'll need to win the 3rd seat in several seats, so being placed 3rd is not the death nail this article makes it out to be.

For the Conservatives, they have 16 members and there are sixteen new seats so if they play sensibly they could all get a top slot and all be guaranteed election come 2026 should they wish. (Ditto with Plaid's 12, although again in most of Wales Plaid will want to win two seats and at a push a third so it really wont be a problem for them)

[Penddu]

If you are relying on Welsh Conservatives to 'play sensibly' you may be disappointed....

[srijan]

Shan't say which member, but there is one Labour MS somewhere in South Wales who is unpopular enough among their own party that they may not survive a trigger ballot...

[LDCaerdydd]

Oct 25, 2024 1:35:07 GMT srijan said:

Shan't say which member, but there is one Labour MS somewhere in South Wales who is unpopular enough among their own party that they may not survive a trigger ballot...

Oh go on...

[The Bishop]

I can make an educated guess or two, does it include a couple of driving related convictions perchance?

[srijan]

I was thinking more thanks to their general attitude towards most people in the party, maybe sprinkled with a tiny touch of antisemitism? If the driving convictions are indeed who I think that's in reference to, I don't think that member is at risk, probably will get a cardiff west/north list place or a place anywhere else in wales

[Sibboleth]

Apparently Lee Waters is standing down. Quite early to make that announcement of course. I'm sure that this news will be greeted with much considered and deep sadness.

[cibwr]

He isn't my party but I will miss Lee Waters - he is something rare, an honest politician who says it as it is.

[Penddu]

On the Senedd Constituency review timetable:

The first consultation period finished on 30 September24.
A second consulation period will take 30 days.
The final report must be published by 30 April 25.

There are no other dates published but it seems that they will need to publish updated proposals soon (by end November?) if they are going to meet their final deadline...anybody know more?

[trickyreturns]

Nov 11, 2024 1:52:07 GMT Penddu said:

On the Senedd Constituency review timetable:

The first consultation period finished on 30 September24.
A second consulation period will take 30 days.
The final report must be published by 30 April 25.

There are no other dates published but it seems that they will need to publish updated proposals soon (by end November?) if they are going to meet their final deadline...anybody know more?

DBCC website says revised proposals will be published "in December".

www.dbcc.gov.wales/?lang=en

The review timeline says the second four week consultation will run into "mid January".  Overall that suggests mid December for publication of the revised proposals.