Welsh Parliament is set to expand

[Harry Hayfield]

Labour and Plaid Cymru's executives have agreed a three year confidence and supply arrangement which will see:

an expansion from 60 to "80 to 100 members", a voting system "which is as proportional - or more - than the current one" and to introduce gender quotas in law.

Therefore, what do members make of that? Are we going to have an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies, 40 regionals), a 90 member Senedd (15 constituencies electing six members or 18 constituencies electing five members by STV) or a 100 member Senedd (50 men, 50 women) elected en masse with the whole of Wales being a single constituency?

[johng]

Nov 22, 2021 10:51:59 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Labour and Plaid Cymru's executives have agreed a three year confidence and supply arrangement which will see:

an expansion from 60 to "80 to 100 members", a voting system "which is as proportional - or more - than the current one" and to introduce gender quotas in law.

Therefore, what do members make of that? Are we going to have an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies, 40 regionals), a 90 member Senedd (15 constituencies electing six members or 18 constituencies electing five members by STV) or a 100 member Senedd (50 men, 50 women) elected en masse with the whole of Wales being a single constituency?

All three options are very unlikely to pass muster as all three with be very disadvantageous for Labour and would relight the fire of devosceptic/ oddball parties allowing them to get members elected on tiny vote shares. It would also likely mean we'd have eternal Labour - Plaid coalitions.

There's going to have to be a compromise. Look at what Adam Price said - the system will have to be at least as proportional as it is now. The compromise is already there.

The previous review led by Dawn Bowden was very supportive of STV and I imagine the next one will be too. The summary is here.

I still think the most viable solution with STV is with the 32 new Westminster seats each electing three members and Ynys Mon electing 2 as it is 2/3 the size of the others.

It's also very likely Drakeford will want to see this pushed through during his term as FM so that's within the next two years or so.

[The Bishop]

Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably?

I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind.

[LDCaerdydd]

Any idea how a gender balanced chamber could be legally enforced?

Volunterally large parties could of course agree to stand 40 men and 40 women, but what about small parties and independents? Will voters be given a male ballot paper and a female ballot paper?

[finsobruce]

Nov 22, 2021 11:26:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably?

I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind.

Instead of a number of odd members?

[ilerda]

Nov 22, 2021 11:26:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably?

I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind.

If you start with an even number of members and then elect one as a non-voting presiding officer, if every other member votes you'll avoid tied results.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Except that the Senedd has a Presiding Officer and a Deputy Presiding Officer.

[nodealbrexiteer]

I used to be pro devolution far less sure now

[johng]

Nov 22, 2021 11:26:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably?

I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind.

Three members per seat and 2 for Ynys Mon would make a 95 seat chamber.

I'd personally rather divide Westminster seats into 3 (2 for YM) FPTP seats, but that's a bit of a non-starter even though it would allow genuine local representation.

I am not sure an odd number is really required. How often do 100% of members vote on something? You also have to consider the presiding officer and her deputy (or potential -ies).

[East Anglian Lefty]

Nov 22, 2021 11:14:17 GMT johng said:

Nov 22, 2021 10:51:59 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Labour and Plaid Cymru's executives have agreed a three year confidence and supply arrangement which will see:

Therefore, what do members make of that? Are we going to have an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies, 40 regionals), a 90 member Senedd (15 constituencies electing six members or 18 constituencies electing five members by STV) or a 100 member Senedd (50 men, 50 women) elected en masse with the whole of Wales being a single constituency?

All three options are very unlikely to pass muster as all three with be very disadvantageous for Labour and would relight the fire of devosceptic/ oddball parties allowing them to get members elected on tiny vote shares. It would also likely mean we'd have eternal Labour - Plaid coalitions.

There's going to have to be a compromise. Look at what Adam Price said - the system will have to be at least as proportional as it is now. The compromise is already there.

The previous review led by Dawn Bowden was very supportive of STV and I imagine the next one will be too. The summary is here.

I still think the most viable solution with STV is with the 32 new Westminster seats each electing three members and Ynys Mon electing 2 as it is 2/3 the size of the others.

It's also very likely Drakeford will want to see this pushed through during his term as FM so that's within the next two years or so.

3-member STV is not especially proportional. Though given that Labour can be reasonably confident of getting more than 1.5 quotas in just about every seat in South Wales, that might mean it's a change that could be sold.

[Harry Hayfield]

My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber.

[johng]

Nov 22, 2021 13:03:32 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

3-member STV is not especially proportional. Though given that Labour can be reasonably confident of getting more than 1.5 quotas in just about every seat in South Wales, that might mean it's a change that could be sold.

Exactly.

It's a viable and workable solution despite perceived drawbacks. Plaid's baseline is a system at least as proportional as the current one and it meets that.

It's just a fantasy to say there should be six-member STV seats just as it is to say we should have a national PR list *shudders*. Those ideas would never get through.

[mondialito]

Nov 22, 2021 13:10:48 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber.

If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size.

I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Nov 22, 2021 13:57:12 GMT mondialito said:

Nov 22, 2021 13:10:48 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber.

If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size.

I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall.

One additional benefit to that is that having 44 mainland seats means that Powys is entitled to exactly two seats, which prevents some of the obviously more terrible seat combinations.

[Harry Hayfield]

Nov 22, 2021 13:57:12 GMT mondialito said:

Nov 22, 2021 13:10:48 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber.

If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size.

I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall.

You are aware that Wales has it's own rules over elections and as a result there is no need or indeed desire for every constituency to be changed in order to fit a 1/40th share of the electorate +/- 5%. Indeed having the existing 40 constituencies would be seen as a greater devolution of power (as Wales is about to go down to 32 MP's, a number equal to that of the Great Reform Act of 1832)

[mondialito]

Nov 22, 2021 16:11:25 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Nov 22, 2021 13:57:12 GMT mondialito said:

If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size.

I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall.

You are aware that Wales has it's own rules over elections and as a result there is no need or indeed desire for every constituency to be changed in order to fit a 1/40th share of the electorate +/- 5%. Indeed having the existing 40 constituencies would be seen as a greater devolution of power (as Wales is about to go down to 32 MP's, a number equal to that of the Great Reform Act of 1832)

That doesn't contradict what I said, either way the boundaries will be different from Westminster, but the model I proposed accounts for the fact the current boundaries were first used in 2007 so probably need refreshing anyway and provides enough flexibility for the size of the Senedd to grow organically.

[johng]

Nov 22, 2021 16:11:25 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

You are aware that Wales has it's own rules over elections and as a result there is no need or indeed desire for every constituency to be changed in order to fit a 1/40th share of the electorate +/- 5%. Indeed having the existing 40 constituencies would be seen as a greater devolution of power (as Wales is about to go down to 32 MP's, a number equal to that of the Great Reform Act of 1832)

Are you sure there is no desire?

I think there is actually a lot of desire for that to happen.

Don't forget any reforms not only have to be acceptable to Plaid Cymru, but also to various factions within the Labour party.

As I said, the only realistic proposals are ones that can get through both the Labour party and Plaid.

Six member STV seats, 40 AMS members or an all-Wales PR list do not meet that threshold.

[cj]

When I saw the title was I the only one hopeful of reading about irredentism for a pre-Marcher or maybe even pre- Offaian (Offaeian? Offacian?) settlement?

[Harry Hayfield]

Here is the offical wording (from the Agreement) on Senedd expansion: "Support plans to reform the Senedd, based on 80 to 100 Members; a voting system, which is as proportional – or more – than the current one and have gender quotas in law. We will support the work of the Senedd Special Purpose Committee and introduce a Senedd reform Bill 12 to 18 months after it reports"

[jollyroger93]

I honestly don't see why they don't add 4 seats to the regional list regions, quick and simple.