Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 22, 2021 10:51:59 GMT
Labour and Plaid Cymru's executives have agreed a three year confidence and supply arrangement which will see:
Therefore, what do members make of that? Are we going to have an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies, 40 regionals), a 90 member Senedd (15 constituencies electing six members or 18 constituencies electing five members by STV) or a 100 member Senedd (50 men, 50 women) elected en masse with the whole of Wales being a single constituency?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Nov 22, 2021 11:14:17 GMT
Labour and Plaid Cymru's executives have agreed a three year confidence and supply arrangement which will see: Therefore, what do members make of that? Are we going to have an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies, 40 regionals), a 90 member Senedd (15 constituencies electing six members or 18 constituencies electing five members by STV) or a 100 member Senedd (50 men, 50 women) elected en masse with the whole of Wales being a single constituency? All three options are very unlikely to pass muster as all three with be very disadvantageous for Labour and would relight the fire of devosceptic/ oddball parties allowing them to get members elected on tiny vote shares. It would also likely mean we'd have eternal Labour - Plaid coalitions.
There's going to have to be a compromise. Look at what Adam Price said - the system will have to be at least as proportional as it is now. The compromise is already there.
The previous review led by Dawn Bowden was very supportive of STV and I imagine the next one will be too. The summary is here.
I still think the most viable solution with STV is with the 32 new Westminster seats each electing three members and Ynys Mon electing 2 as it is 2/3 the size of the others.
It's also very likely Drakeford will want to see this pushed through during his term as FM so that's within the next two years or so.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2021 11:26:05 GMT
Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably?
I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 22, 2021 11:35:41 GMT
Any idea how a gender balanced chamber could be legally enforced?
Volunterally large parties could of course agree to stand 40 men and 40 women, but what about small parties and independents? Will voters be given a male ballot paper and a female ballot paper?
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 22, 2021 12:01:00 GMT
Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably? I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind. Instead of a number of odd members?
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,111
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Post by ilerda on Nov 22, 2021 12:10:28 GMT
Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably? I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind. If you start with an even number of members and then elect one as a non-voting presiding officer, if every other member votes you'll avoid tied results.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 22, 2021 12:55:46 GMT
Except that the Senedd has a Presiding Officer and a Deputy Presiding Officer.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,463
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 22, 2021 13:03:15 GMT
I used to be pro devolution far less sure now
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Nov 22, 2021 13:03:29 GMT
Which would make it a 98 seat chamber, presumably? I personally believe all elected bodies should have an odd number of members, mind. Three members per seat and 2 for Ynys Mon would make a 95 seat chamber.
I'd personally rather divide Westminster seats into 3 (2 for YM) FPTP seats, but that's a bit of a non-starter even though it would allow genuine local representation.
I am not sure an odd number is really required. How often do 100% of members vote on something? You also have to consider the presiding officer and her deputy (or potential -ies).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 22, 2021 13:03:32 GMT
Labour and Plaid Cymru's executives have agreed a three year confidence and supply arrangement which will see: Therefore, what do members make of that? Are we going to have an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies, 40 regionals), a 90 member Senedd (15 constituencies electing six members or 18 constituencies electing five members by STV) or a 100 member Senedd (50 men, 50 women) elected en masse with the whole of Wales being a single constituency? All three options are very unlikely to pass muster as all three with be very disadvantageous for Labour and would relight the fire of devosceptic/ oddball parties allowing them to get members elected on tiny vote shares. It would also likely mean we'd have eternal Labour - Plaid coalitions.
There's going to have to be a compromise. Look at what Adam Price said - the system will have to be at least as proportional as it is now. The compromise is already there. The previous review led by Dawn Bowden was very supportive of STV and I imagine the next one will be too. The summary is here.I still think the most viable solution with STV is with the 32 new Westminster seats each electing three members and Ynys Mon electing 2 as it is 2/3 the size of the others.
It's also very likely Drakeford will want to see this pushed through during his term as FM so that's within the next two years or so.
3-member STV is not especially proportional. Though given that Labour can be reasonably confident of getting more than 1.5 quotas in just about every seat in South Wales, that might mean it's a change that could be sold.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 22, 2021 13:10:48 GMT
My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Nov 22, 2021 13:15:53 GMT
3-member STV is not especially proportional. Though given that Labour can be reasonably confident of getting more than 1.5 quotas in just about every seat in South Wales, that might mean it's a change that could be sold. Exactly. It's a viable and workable solution despite perceived drawbacks. Plaid's baseline is a system at least as proportional as the current one and it meets that.
It's just a fantasy to say there should be six-member STV seats just as it is to say we should have a national PR list *shudders*. Those ideas would never get through.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Nov 22, 2021 13:57:12 GMT
My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber. If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size. I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 22, 2021 15:43:36 GMT
My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber. If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size. I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall. One additional benefit to that is that having 44 mainland seats means that Powys is entitled to exactly two seats, which prevents some of the obviously more terrible seat combinations.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 22, 2021 16:11:25 GMT
My personal preference would be an 80 member Senedd (40 constituencies / 40 regional) as people can just about understand that or a 90 member Senedd (15 x 6 members, 18 x 5 members) as that would be one way to get a more diverse group of parties into the Senedd chamber. If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size. I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall. You are aware that Wales has it's own rules over elections and as a result there is no need or indeed desire for every constituency to be changed in order to fit a 1/40th share of the electorate +/- 5%. Indeed having the existing 40 constituencies would be seen as a greater devolution of power (as Wales is about to go down to 32 MP's, a number equal to that of the Great Reform Act of 1832)
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Nov 22, 2021 16:56:29 GMT
If you stick with AMS, how about a formula where the number of constituencies is set by dividing the mainland electorate by that of Ynys Mon? That way Ynys Mon can be protected while ensuring all constituencies are roughly the same size. I don't have the numbers immediately to hand but I believe that applying it to the current figures would create 44 mainland constituencies, so 44 + Ynys Mon + 40 list seats would equal 85 seats overall. You are aware that Wales has it's own rules over elections and as a result there is no need or indeed desire for every constituency to be changed in order to fit a 1/40th share of the electorate +/- 5%. Indeed having the existing 40 constituencies would be seen as a greater devolution of power (as Wales is about to go down to 32 MP's, a number equal to that of the Great Reform Act of 1832) That doesn't contradict what I said, either way the boundaries will be different from Westminster, but the model I proposed accounts for the fact the current boundaries were first used in 2007 so probably need refreshing anyway and provides enough flexibility for the size of the Senedd to grow organically.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Nov 22, 2021 17:12:38 GMT
You are aware that Wales has it's own rules over elections and as a result there is no need or indeed desire for every constituency to be changed in order to fit a 1/40th share of the electorate +/- 5%. Indeed having the existing 40 constituencies would be seen as a greater devolution of power (as Wales is about to go down to 32 MP's, a number equal to that of the Great Reform Act of 1832) Are you sure there is no desire? I think there is actually a lot of desire for that to happen.
Don't forget any reforms not only have to be acceptable to Plaid Cymru, but also to various factions within the Labour party.
As I said, the only realistic proposals are ones that can get through both the Labour party and Plaid.
Six member STV seats, 40 AMS members or an all-Wales PR list do not meet that threshold.
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cj
Socialist
These fragments I have shored against my ruins
Posts: 3,285
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Post by cj on Nov 22, 2021 19:44:55 GMT
When I saw the title was I the only one hopeful of reading about irredentism for a pre-Marcher or maybe even pre- Offaian (Offaeian? Offacian?) settlement?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 22, 2021 20:16:18 GMT
Here is the offical wording (from the Agreement) on Senedd expansion: "Support plans to reform the Senedd, based on 80 to 100 Members; a voting system, which is as proportional – or more – than the current one and have gender quotas in law. We will support the work of the Senedd Special Purpose Committee and introduce a Senedd reform Bill 12 to 18 months after it reports"
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 22, 2021 20:39:59 GMT
I honestly don't see why they don't add 4 seats to the regional list regions, quick and simple.
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