Welsh Parliament is set to expand

[ilerda]

Sept 3, 2024 15:39:27 GMT Penddu said:

Considering that one of the criteria is good transport links I can only assume that nobody on the commission has ever driven from Port Talbot to Rhondda... The drive through Afan Valley over the Bwlch is very scenic......but not what you would call commutable!

Some of the justifications given by the Commission for certain pairings do have a strong whiff of “policy-based evidence making” about them. 

[nyx]

For what it's worth, here are the notional results using the 2024 general election results. Obviously different to what would happen in a Senedd election, as the general election result was Lab 37%, Con 18%, Rfm 17%, PC 15%, whereas the latest Senedd poll is Lab 25%, PC 24%, Con 16%, Rfm 16%.

Bangor Aberconwy Ynys Mon: 1) Lab (21,627), 2) PC (19,702), 3) Con (18,989), 4) Lab2 (10,813.5), 5) PC2 (9,851), 6) Con2 (9,494.5). Reform miss out (9,314)
Clwyd: 1) Lab (33,278), 2) Con (27,460), 3) Lab2 (16,639), 4) Rfm (14,626), 5) Con2 (13,730), 6) Lab3 (11,092.7). PC miss out (6,892)
Alyn Deeside and Wrexham: 1) Lab (34,231), 2) Con (17,780), 3) Lab2 (17,115.5), Rfm (16,516), 5) Lab3 (11,410.3), 6) Con2 (8,890). PC miss out (6,076)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: 1) PC (27,455), 2) Lab (18,621), 3) Rfm (13,751), 4) PC2 (13,727.5), 5) Con (12,487), 6) Lab2 (9,310.5). LD miss out (7,851)
Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire: 1) PC (24,700), 2) Lab (21,891), 3) Con (19,390), 4) Rfm (13,202), 5) PC2 (12,350), 6) Lab2 (10,945.5). LD miss out (9,321)
Carmarthenshire: 1) PC (25,031), 2) Lab (23,736), 3) Rfm (18,191), 4) Con (13,100), 5) PC2 (12,515.5), 6) Lab2 (11,868). Other parties not close.
Swansea West and Gower: 1) Lab (35,241), 2) Lab2 (17,620.5), 3) Rfm (14,776), 4) Con (12,449), 5) Lab3 (11,747), 6) Lab4 (8,810.3). PC (8,047), LD (6,960), Green (4,793) all miss out
Brecon Radnor Neath and Swansea East: 1) Lab (26,701), 2) Rfm (16,737), 3) LD (16,080), 4) Con (16,029), 5) Lab2 (13,350.5), 6) Lab3 (8,900.3). PC miss out (7,630)
Aberafan Maesteg Rhondda and Ogmore: 1) Lab (34,956), 2) Lab2 (17,478), 3) Rfm (16,812), 4) Lab3 (11,652), 5) PC (9,917), 6) Lab4 (8,739). Con miss out (4,953)
Merthyr Tydfil Aberdare and Pontypridd: 1) Lab (32,016), 2) Rfm (16,167), 3) Lab2 (16,008), 4) Lab3 (10,672), 5) PC (10,043), 6) Rfm2 (8,083.5). Con miss out (6,462)
Blaneau Gwent Rhymney and Caerphilly: 1) Lab (30,565), 2) Lab2 (15,282.5), 3) PC (12,003), 4) Lab3 (10,188.3), 5) Con (8,161), 6) Rfm (7,754). Other parties not close. Nb Reform did not stand in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney in the general election.
Monmouthshire and Torfaen: 1) Lab (36,186), 2) Con (23,409), 3) Lab2 (18,093), 4) Rfm (13,292), 5) Lab3 (12,062), 6) Con2 (11,704.5). Other parties not close.
Newport and Islwyn: 1) Lab (33,779), 2) Lab2 (16,889.5), 3) Rfm (15,902), 4) Con (13,197), 5) Lab3 (11,259.7), 6) Lab4 (8,444.8). PC miss out (5,768)
Cardiff East and North: 1) Lab (36,682) 2) Lab2 (18,341), 3) Con (13,558), 4) Lab3 (12,227.3), 5) Rfm (10,965), 6) LD (9,904). PC (8,219) and Green (7,076) miss out.
Cardiff West South and Penarth: 1) Lab (33,870), 2) Lab2 (16,935), 3) PC (12,650), 4) Con (12,294), 5) Lab3 (11,290), 6) Rfm (10,119). Green miss out (8,818)
Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend: 1) Lab (34,256), 2) Con (20,288), 3) Lab2 (17,128), 4) Rfm (14,894), 5) Lab3 (11,418.7), 6) Con2 (10,144). PC miss out (6,874)

Total Lab 47, Con 19, Rfm 16, PC 12, LD 2

[Penddu]

Would be interesting to factor those Westminster votes in line with Senedd voting intentions... Give a more realistic Senedd makeup

[Penddu]

Sept 3, 2024 16:12:55 GMT ilerda said:

Sept 3, 2024 15:39:27 GMT Penddu said:

Considering that one of the criteria is good transport links I can only assume that nobody on the commission has ever driven from Port Talbot to Rhondda... The drive through Afan Valley over the Bwlch is very scenic......but not what you would call commutable!

Some of the justifications given by the Commission for certain pairings do have a strong whiff of “policy-based evidence making” about them. 

If I was cynical I might think that commission has a hidden agenda to discredit the Senedd...

[minionofmidas]

Sept 3, 2024 15:39:27 GMT Penddu said:

Considering that one of the criteria is good transport links I can only assume that nobody on the commission has ever driven from Port Talbot to Rhondda

or indeed visited either place?

[YL]

Sept 3, 2024 9:29:36 GMT Yaffles said:

Probably about as good a job as could be done given the limited options. Only sore point for me is splitting Swansea. I don't see why they couldn't of used LAs as the starting point rather than the parliamentary constituencies.

If you look at the detailed boundaries, Gower actually contains quite a bit of urban Swansea, as well as being entirely within the city boundary. So I think a Gower/Swansea West link is fine.

[minionofmidas]

Sept 3, 2024 18:56:06 GMT YL said:

Sept 3, 2024 9:29:36 GMT Yaffles said:

Probably about as good a job as could be done given the limited options. Only sore point for me is splitting Swansea. I don't see why they couldn't of used LAs as the starting point rather than the parliamentary constituencies.

If you look at the detailed boundaries, Gower actually contains quite a bit of urban Swansea, as well as being entirely within the city boundary. So I think a Gower/Swansea West link is fine.

Honestly Swansea W & Gower and Swansea C would have been the obvious names for the Westminster seats.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Sept 3, 2024 15:39:27 GMT Penddu said:

Considering that one of the criteria is good transport links I can only assume that nobody on the commission has ever driven from Port Talbot to Rhondda... The drive through Afan Valley over the Bwlch is very scenic......but not what you would call commutable!

It's fine. It's not exactly the St Gotthard Pass.

[stb12]

Sept 3, 2024 16:22:24 GMT nyx said:

For what it's worth, here are the notional results using the 2024 general election results. Obviously different to what would happen in a Senedd election, as the general election result was Lab 37%, Con 18%, Rfm 17%, PC 15%, whereas the latest Senedd poll is Lab 25%, PC 24%, Con 16%, Rfm 16%.

Bangor Aberconwy Ynys Mon: 1) Lab (21,627), 2) PC (19,702), 3) Con (18,989), 4) Lab2 (10,813.5), 5) PC2 (9,851), 6) Con2 (9,494.5). Reform miss out (9,314)
Clwyd: 1) Lab (33,278), 2) Con (27,460), 3) Lab2 (16,639), 4) Rfm (14,626), 5) Con2 (13,730), 6) Lab3 (11,092.7). PC miss out (6,892)
Alyn Deeside and Wrexham: 1) Lab (34,231), 2) Con (17,780), 3) Lab2 (17,115.5), Rfm (16,516), 5) Lab3 (11,410.3), 6) Con2 (8,890). PC miss out (6,076)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: 1) PC (27,455), 2) Lab (18,621), 3) Rfm (13,751), 4) PC2 (13,727.5), 5) Con (12,487), 6) Lab2 (9,310.5). LD miss out (7,851)
Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire: 1) PC (24,700), 2) Lab (21,891), 3) Con (19,390), 4) Rfm (13,202), 5) PC2 (12,350), 6) Lab2 (10,945.5). LD miss out (9,321)
Carmarthenshire: 1) PC (25,031), 2) Lab (23,736), 3) Rfm (18,191), 4) Con (13,100), 5) PC2 (12,515.5), 6) Lab2 (11,868). Other parties not close.
Swansea West and Gower: 1) Lab (35,241), 2) Lab2 (17,620.5), 3) Rfm (14,776), 4) Con (12,449), 5) Lab3 (11,747), 6) Lab4 (8,810.3). PC (8,047), LD (6,960), Green (4,793) all miss out
Brecon Radnor Neath and Swansea East: 1) Lab (26,701), 2) Rfm (16,737), 3) LD (16,080), 4) Con (16,029), 5) Lab2 (13,350.5), 6) Lab3 (8,900.3). PC miss out (7,630)
Aberafan Maesteg Rhondda and Ogmore: 1) Lab (34,956), 2) Lab2 (17,478), 3) Rfm (16,812), 4) Lab3 (11,652), 5) PC (9,917), 6) Lab4 (8,739). Con miss out (4,953)
Merthyr Tydfil Aberdare and Pontypridd: 1) Lab (32,016), 2) Rfm (16,167), 3) Lab2 (16,008), 4) Lab3 (10,672), 5) PC (10,043), 6) Rfm2 (8,083.5). Con miss out (6,462)
Blaneau Gwent Rhymney and Caerphilly: 1) Lab (30,565), 2) Lab2 (15,282.5), 3) PC (12,003), 4) Lab3 (10,188.3), 5) Con (8,161), 6) Rfm (7,754). Other parties not close. Nb Reform did not stand in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney in the general election.
Monmouthshire and Torfaen: 1) Lab (36,186), 2) Con (23,409), 3) Lab2 (18,093), 4) Rfm (13,292), 5) Lab3 (12,062), 6) Con2 (11,704.5). Other parties not close.
Newport and Islwyn: 1) Lab (33,779), 2) Lab2 (16,889.5), 3) Rfm (15,902), 4) Con (13,197), 5) Lab3 (11,259.7), 6) Lab4 (8,444.8). PC miss out (5,768)
Cardiff East and North: 1) Lab (36,682) 2) Lab2 (18,341), 3) Con (13,558), 4) Lab3 (12,227.3), 5) Rfm (10,965), 6) LD (9,904). PC (8,219) and Green (7,076) miss out.
Cardiff West South and Penarth: 1) Lab (33,870), 2) Lab2 (16,935), 3) PC (12,650), 4) Con (12,294), 5) Lab3 (11,290), 6) Rfm (10,119). Green miss out (8,818)
Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend: 1) Lab (34,256), 2) Con (20,288), 3) Lab2 (17,128), 4) Rfm (14,894), 5) Lab3 (11,418.7), 6) Con2 (10,144). PC miss out (6,874)

Total Lab 47, Con 19, Rfm 16, PC 12, LD 2

The Tories really did suffer from FPTP in Wales didn’t they?

[Penddu]

Sept 3, 2024 22:21:31 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 3, 2024 16:22:24 GMT nyx said:

For what it's worth, here are the notional results using the 2024 general election results. Obviously different to what would happen in a Senedd election, as the general election result was Lab 37%, Con 18%, Rfm 17%, PC 15%, whereas the latest Senedd poll is Lab 25%, PC 24%, Con 16%, Rfm 16%.

Bangor Aberconwy Ynys Mon: 1) Lab (21,627), 2) PC (19,702), 3) Con (18,989), 4) Lab2 (10,813.5), 5) PC2 (9,851), 6) Con2 (9,494.5). Reform miss out (9,314)
Clwyd: 1) Lab (33,278), 2) Con (27,460), 3) Lab2 (16,639), 4) Rfm (14,626), 5) Con2 (13,730), 6) Lab3 (11,092.7). PC miss out (6,892)
Alyn Deeside and Wrexham: 1) Lab (34,231), 2) Con (17,780), 3) Lab2 (17,115.5), Rfm (16,516), 5) Lab3 (11,410.3), 6) Con2 (8,890). PC miss out (6,076)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: 1) PC (27,455), 2) Lab (18,621), 3) Rfm (13,751), 4) PC2 (13,727.5), 5) Con (12,487), 6) Lab2 (9,310.5). LD miss out (7,851)
Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire: 1) PC (24,700), 2) Lab (21,891), 3) Con (19,390), 4) Rfm (13,202), 5) PC2 (12,350), 6) Lab2 (10,945.5). LD miss out (9,321)
Carmarthenshire: 1) PC (25,031), 2) Lab (23,736), 3) Rfm (18,191), 4) Con (13,100), 5) PC2 (12,515.5), 6) Lab2 (11,868). Other parties not close.
Swansea West and Gower: 1) Lab (35,241), 2) Lab2 (17,620.5), 3) Rfm (14,776), 4) Con (12,449), 5) Lab3 (11,747), 6) Lab4 (8,810.3). PC (8,047), LD (6,960), Green (4,793) all miss out
Brecon Radnor Neath and Swansea East: 1) Lab (26,701), 2) Rfm (16,737), 3) LD (16,080), 4) Con (16,029), 5) Lab2 (13,350.5), 6) Lab3 (8,900.3). PC miss out (7,630)
Aberafan Maesteg Rhondda and Ogmore: 1) Lab (34,956), 2) Lab2 (17,478), 3) Rfm (16,812), 4) Lab3 (11,652), 5) PC (9,917), 6) Lab4 (8,739). Con miss out (4,953)
Merthyr Tydfil Aberdare and Pontypridd: 1) Lab (32,016), 2) Rfm (16,167), 3) Lab2 (16,008), 4) Lab3 (10,672), 5) PC (10,043), 6) Rfm2 (8,083.5). Con miss out (6,462)
Blaneau Gwent Rhymney and Caerphilly: 1) Lab (30,565), 2) Lab2 (15,282.5), 3) PC (12,003), 4) Lab3 (10,188.3), 5) Con (8,161), 6) Rfm (7,754). Other parties not close. Nb Reform did not stand in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney in the general election.
Monmouthshire and Torfaen: 1) Lab (36,186), 2) Con (23,409), 3) Lab2 (18,093), 4) Rfm (13,292), 5) Lab3 (12,062), 6) Con2 (11,704.5). Other parties not close.
Newport and Islwyn: 1) Lab (33,779), 2) Lab2 (16,889.5), 3) Rfm (15,902), 4) Con (13,197), 5) Lab3 (11,259.7), 6) Lab4 (8,444.8). PC miss out (5,768)
Cardiff East and North: 1) Lab (36,682) 2) Lab2 (18,341), 3) Con (13,558), 4) Lab3 (12,227.3), 5) Rfm (10,965), 6) LD (9,904). PC (8,219) and Green (7,076) miss out.
Cardiff West South and Penarth: 1) Lab (33,870), 2) Lab2 (16,935), 3) PC (12,650), 4) Con (12,294), 5) Lab3 (11,290), 6) Rfm (10,119). Green miss out (8,818)
Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend: 1) Lab (34,256), 2) Con (20,288), 3) Lab2 (17,128), 4) Rfm (14,894), 5) Lab3 (11,418.7), 6) Con2 (10,144). PC miss out (6,874)

Total Lab 47, Con 19, Rfm 16, PC 12, LD 2

The Tories really did suffer from FPTP in Wales didn’t they?

Not enough..

[stb12]

Sept 4, 2024 15:35:33 GMT Penddu said:

Sept 3, 2024 22:21:31 GMT stb12 said:

The Tories really did suffer from FPTP in Wales didn’t they?

Not enough..

Well it hardly gets much worse than no seats does it? Especially when two parties that polled below them got five seats between them

[Sibboleth]

In this case it was their own silly fault for insisting on the new boundary rules, plus their incumbent with the best chance of hanging on deciding to commit electoral seppuku.

[nyx]

Sept 4, 2024 15:46:04 GMT Sibboleth said:

In this case it was their own silly fault for insisting on the new boundary rules, plus their incumbent with the best chance of hanging on deciding to commit electoral seppuku.

Considering the margin by which he lost, I wouldn't describe Craig Williams as the incumbent with the best chance of hanging on- he'd have managed a second place without his scandal but I think winning would have been very difficult. Stephen Crabb and Virginia Crosbie probably both had a better chance (as well as the non-incumbent Darren Millar).

[finsobruce]

Sept 4, 2024 16:59:00 GMT nyx said:

Sept 4, 2024 15:46:04 GMT Sibboleth said:

In this case it was their own silly fault for insisting on the new boundary rules, plus their incumbent with the best chance of hanging on deciding to commit electoral seppuku.

Considering the margin by which he lost, I wouldn't describe Craig Williams as the incumbent with the best chance of hanging on- he'd have managed a second place without his scandal but I think winning would have been very difficult. Stephen Crabb and Virginia Crosbie probably both had a better chance (as well as the non-incumbent Darren Millar).

That's a bit ex post facto though isn't it? It's a perfectly reasonable assertion before the votes were cast , before the scandal.

[nyx]

Sept 4, 2024 17:11:01 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 4, 2024 16:59:00 GMT nyx said:

Considering the margin by which he lost, I wouldn't describe Craig Williams as the incumbent with the best chance of hanging on- he'd have managed a second place without his scandal but I think winning would have been very difficult. Stephen Crabb and Virginia Crosbie probably both had a better chance (as well as the non-incumbent Darren Millar).

That's a bit ex post facto though isn't it? It's a perfectly reasonable assertion before the votes were cast , before the scandal.

It would have been an understandable assumption prior to the election, but with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think the most likely answer to the question "how could the Tories have kept at least one Welsh MP" is "Craig Williams avoids the scandal".

[finsobruce]

Sept 4, 2024 18:43:44 GMT nyx said:

Sept 4, 2024 17:11:01 GMT finsobruce said:

That's a bit ex post facto though isn't it? It's a perfectly reasonable assertion before the votes were cast , before the scandal.

It would have been an understandable assumption prior to the election, but with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think the most likely answer to the question "how could the Tories have kept at least one Welsh MP" is "Craig Williams avoids the scandal".

If you use hindsight, it isn't a prediction.

[nyx]

Sept 4, 2024 18:47:50 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 4, 2024 18:43:44 GMT nyx said:

It would have been an understandable assumption prior to the election, but with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think the most likely answer to the question "how could the Tories have kept at least one Welsh MP" is "Craig Williams avoids the scandal".

If you use hindsight, it isn't a prediction.

Sure- I was responding specifically to Sibboleth's claim that the reason the Tories ended up with no seats in Wales was "their incumbent with the best chance of hanging on deciding to commit electoral seppuku". Which isn't really accurate.

[Foggy]

Sept 4, 2024 18:52:13 GMT nyx said:

Sept 4, 2024 18:47:50 GMT finsobruce said:

If you use hindsight, it isn't a prediction.

Sure- I was responding specifically to Sibboleth's claim that the reason the Tories ended up with no seats in Wales was "their incumbent with the best chance of hanging on deciding to commit electoral seppuku". Which isn't really accurate.

Are you saying you think it was more a case of electoral hara-kiri? 

[Penddu]

To be fair it was Conservative Kamikaze all around

[minionofmidas]

Sept 4, 2024 16:59:00 GMT nyx said:

Sept 4, 2024 15:46:04 GMT Sibboleth said:

In this case it was their own silly fault for insisting on the new boundary rules, plus their incumbent with the best chance of hanging on deciding to commit electoral seppuku.

Considering the margin by which he lost, I wouldn't describe Craig Williams as the incumbent with the best chance of hanging on- he'd have managed a second place without his scandal but I think winning would have been very difficult. Stephen Crabb and Virginia Crosbie probably both had a better chance (as well as the non-incumbent Darren Millar).

Crosbie had to break an age-old curse to lose and indeed almost didn't, the pop cultural / slightly tongue ib cheek take that she had the best chance of hanging on was utterly vindicated.