nyx
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Post by nyx on Dec 23, 2023 7:22:57 GMT
I suspect that there's at least a chance of a surprise result in a Welsh parliament abolition referendum, e.g. if the "abolish" side were to treat the campaign as a de facto referendum on the 20mph speed limit.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 23, 2023 12:10:28 GMT
There really absolutely is not. With genuine respect, don't get intoxicated by online fumes.
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Post by stb12 on Dec 23, 2023 12:14:55 GMT
Historically the Welsh have been much more devolution skeptic than in Scotland hence the differences in the '79 and '97 referendum results, but it seems established in Wales now the extent where a vote for abolition would be very unlikely to say the least
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 23, 2023 14:10:12 GMT
Historically the Welsh have been much more devolution skeptic than in Scotland hence the differences in the '79 and '99 referendum results, but it seems established in Wales now the extent where a vote for abolition would be very unlikely to say the least In the 1979 Assembly referendum in Wales, the range of YES votes was a low of 12% in Gwent to a high of 34% in Gwynedd, this compared to a low of 27% in Shetland and a high of 56% in the Western Isles. In the 1997 referendum, the range was 32% in Monmouthshire to 67% in Neath and Port Talbot and in Scotland 57% in Orkney to 85% in West Dunbartonshire.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Dec 23, 2023 20:42:27 GMT
Historically the Welsh have been much more devolution skeptic than in Scotland hence the differences in the '79 and '97 referendum results, but it seems established in Wales now the extent where a vote for abolition would be very unlikely to say the least With luck things keep moving in this direction. Obviously the idea of Welsh independence is absurd but I would certainly be welcome of being rid of the useless buggers.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 23, 2023 21:49:45 GMT
Obviously the idea of Welsh independence is absurd but I would certainly be welcome of being rid of the useless buggers. Given that (I assume?) you live in the East Midlands - has Welsh Devolution given you many sleepless nights?
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Post by Penddu on Dec 25, 2023 5:38:29 GMT
There is a hard-core of anti-devolutionists in Wales of around 15-20% and these could be bolstered by a flavour of the month campaign (eg 20mph limits) to around 25-30% maximum. These would be opposed by committed indy supporters at around 25%; softer 'nationalists' (typical Welsh Labour) at around another 25%; and the moderate centre who oppose change (small c Conservatives) at around 25%.
So an Abolish referendum would fail 25:75% or 30:70%.
An Indy referendum would also fail around 30:70% or 40%:60% if held today but it is slowly moving towards a potentially winnable 50:50%.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 30, 2024 19:01:17 GMT
During the debate on the expansion of the Senedd, it was confirmed that the pairing for the 2026 elections will be a one off operation, and that for the 2030 elections onwards the constituencies must have an electorate no greater than 10% of electoral parity (the words used by the Secretary of the Finance Committee, not me)
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 30, 2024 19:54:52 GMT
Welsh patriotism tracks Scottish Patriotism. 20 points lower.
I get why. If those sweaty socks are buoyant, it becomes intolerable for casual Welshmen to be a mere Principality, and for the secretly Indy fantasist, it becomes inspirational
But the flipside is that when the Jocks become an embarrassment (and they currently are) folk quietly slip into being Good Labour Folk.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jan 30, 2024 20:03:08 GMT
During the debate on the expansion of the Senedd, it was confirmed that the pairing for the 2026 elections will be a one off operation, and that for the 2030 elections onwards the constituencies must have an electorate no greater than 10% of electoral parity (the words used by the Secretary of the Finance Committee, not me) Didn’t we know that already?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 30, 2024 20:53:49 GMT
We did.
I don’t know who the “Secretary of the Finance Committee” is or in what context they are speaking however.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 31, 2024 14:00:34 GMT
We did. I don’t know who the “Secretary of the Finance Committee” is or in what context they are speaking however. From the Senedd Record: The words: "Finally, Llywydd, I would like to draw attention to our recommendations relating to the cost of future boundary reviews. Reviews conducted after the initial pairing exercise for the 2026 election will be drawn so that no new constituency is 10 per cent over or under electoral parity. This could potentially be a complex undertaking that may lead to considerable change and result in higher costs. I'm grateful to the Counsel General for agreeing to provide an update on costs once all the relevant boundary changes have been completed to enable the committee or a future finance committee to understand the full financial impact of the Bill" Spoken by: "Chair of the Finance Committee next—Peredur Owen Griffiths"
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 31, 2024 16:00:37 GMT
Right so the Chair of the Senedd's Finance Committee. He's not saying anything new other than his committee has published a report on the Financial Implications of the Elections and Elected Bodies (Wales) Bill. They are considering the overall cost of any new system and increase in numbers and how the Senedd would work. One recommendation they made is: That's just common sense and would probably have happened anyway, but the cost shouldn't be significantly more than the cost of the current Westminster review for the Welsh seats so I'm not entirely sure that's news, the post 2026 boundary review certainly isn't and has been mentioned on this thread before.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 31, 2024 16:04:02 GMT
An Indy referendum would also fail around 30:70% or 40%:60% if held today but it is slowly moving towards a potentially winnable 50:50%. I have seen tectonic plates move more swiftly.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 31, 2024 17:49:53 GMT
Right so the Chair of the Senedd's Finance Committee. He's not saying anything new other than his committee has published a report on the Financial Implications of the Elections and Elected Bodies (Wales) Bill. They are considering the overall cost of any new system and increase in numbers and how the Senedd would work. One recommendation they made is: That's just common sense and would probably have happened anyway, but the cost shouldn't be significantly more than the cost of the current Westminster review for the Welsh seats so I'm not entirely sure that's news, the post 2026 boundary review certainly isn't and has been mentioned on this thread before. gwynthegriff do you remember Mick Antoniw from our Cardiff days?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 31, 2024 17:55:48 GMT
Right so the Chair of the Senedd's Finance Committee. He's not saying anything new other than his committee has published a report on the Financial Implications of the Elections and Elected Bodies (Wales) Bill. They are considering the overall cost of any new system and increase in numbers and how the Senedd would work. One recommendation they made is: That's just common sense and would probably have happened anyway, but the cost shouldn't be significantly more than the cost of the current Westminster review for the Welsh seats so I'm not entirely sure that's news, the post 2026 boundary review certainly isn't and has been mentioned on this thread before. gwynthegriff do you remember Mick Antoniw from our Cardiff days? Nope, 'fraid not. Don't forget - you were there rather longer than I was!
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 31, 2024 21:52:31 GMT
Did he have to resit years?
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 31, 2024 22:17:41 GMT
Did he have to resit years? naughty! as you are well aware the medical course is longer than most 🙂
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 31, 2024 22:20:51 GMT
gwynthegriff do you remember Mick Antoniw from our Cardiff days? Nope, 'fraid not. Don't forget - you were there rather longer than I was! indeed he was president of Cardiff Area Students Association for what seems in retrospect more years than reasonable, although that may be my memory. Seemed to be responsible for booking transport for NUS conference amongst other things.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 1, 2024 0:08:06 GMT
Do people really use the word Llywydd regularly?
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