cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Sept 23, 2023 7:20:21 GMT
The next election with paired seats is for one election only, from 2030 they will be on new boundaries that will I suspect be more "natural". Probably based more on local government boundaries - the bill is a little ambiguous on this but not unreasonably so. The top up regions mentioned above were originally the EU constituencies (before we had pr for the EU elections.
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 24, 2023 20:45:53 GMT
The next election with paired seats is for one election only, from 2030 they will be on new boundaries that will I suspect be more "natural". Probably based more on local government boundaries - the bill is a little ambiguous on this but not unreasonably so. The top up regions mentioned above were originally the EU constituencies (before we had pr for the EU elections. If that’s going to happen eventually anyway why not just allocate the seats to the local authorities now and use these as the STV constituencies (probably with the exception of Cardiff that would have to be split in 2.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 25, 2023 4:13:39 GMT
The next election with paired seats is for one election only, from 2030 they will be on new boundaries that will I suspect be more "natural". Probably based more on local government boundaries - the bill is a little ambiguous on this but not unreasonably so. The top up regions mentioned above were originally the EU constituencies (before we had pr for the EU elections. If that’s going to happen eventually anyway why not just allocate the seats to the local authorities now and use these as the STV constituencies (probably with the exception of Cardiff that would have to be split in 2. Because STV isn't the system being used
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 25, 2023 4:35:47 GMT
If that’s going to happen eventually anyway why not just allocate the seats to the local authorities now and use these as the STV constituencies (probably with the exception of Cardiff that would have to be split in 2. Because STV isn't the system being used My mistake, which makes the argument for using local authorities even stronger. Really, the whole constituency pairing exercise is just completely pointless then. As well as fuckwitted.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Sept 25, 2023 8:31:30 GMT
part of the constraints is that each constituency will return 6 members - so it will be a combination of local authorities and some split... using pairs of Westminster constituencies is a temp measure to speedily create the constituencies
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Post by johnloony on Sept 25, 2023 12:26:58 GMT
If that’s going to happen eventually anyway why not just allocate the seats to the local authorities now and use these as the STV constituencies (probably with the exception of Cardiff that would have to be split in 2. Because STV isn't the system being used One of the points about PR (whether it's by list PR or STV) is that ideally the number of seats per constituency should vary according to the identities and circumstances of the local communities. Overall proportionality can be better when the district magnitude varies rather than is rigid. If the number of seats in each constituency varied between (say) 4 and 7, it would be reasonable. I don't really know why they feel the need to have an interim arrangement (pairing HoC constituencies) for one election only.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Sept 25, 2023 13:06:27 GMT
the interim arrangements are because they want to get this don before the next election, a full blown boundary review will take longer. Interestingly the original system for the then Assembly was also a temporary quick fix solution - though very shortly after the Richards commission recommended a 80 member body elected by STV. This was shelved largely because the Labour Party objected to STV and most of the other recommendations gathered dust too.
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 25, 2023 13:48:44 GMT
Next election isn't until 2026, I find it hard to believe it is impossible to produce a set of boundaries by then.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Sept 25, 2023 16:11:55 GMT
We expect there to be a challenge to some of the legislation - which is why the gender quotas are a separate bill.... and its a quick fix in case of issues.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 25, 2023 17:58:18 GMT
The next election with paired seats is for one election only, from 2030 they will be on new boundaries that will I suspect be more "natural". Probably based more on local government boundaries - the bill is a little ambiguous on this but not unreasonably so. The top up regions mentioned above were originally the EU constituencies (before we had pr for the EU elections. If that’s going to happen eventually anyway why not just allocate the seats to the local authorities now and use these as the STV constituencies (probably with the exception of Cardiff that would have to be split in 2. They could even write the split into the legislation: Butetown, Grangetown, Canton, Riverside, Gabalfa, Cathays, Plasnewydd, Penylan, Adamsdown, and Splott in Cardiff Constituency; everything else in Cardiff Rural.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 25, 2023 19:07:34 GMT
They could put Cardiff Wards into legislation but that would not future proof it as the legislation would need to be altered if the population in those areas shifts, they would also be accused of political gerrymandering. Far better to leave it to an independent boundary review.
Those of us contributing and reading this thread should also steer clear of assuming that the post 2030 boundaries will have anything to do with local authority boundaries - that’s purely speculation on here at the moment.
The reason there will be temporary pairing for 2026 then a full review for 2030 is simply to get the extra members now while the political arithmetic works (Labour plus Plaid), it’s delicate and there’s no guarantee that the numbers would work after a hypothetical 60 seat 2026 election.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,819
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 25, 2023 19:33:36 GMT
The reason there will be temporary pairing for 2026 then a full review for 2030 is simply to get the extra members now while the political arithmetic works (Labour plus Plaid), it’s delicate and there’s no guarantee that the numbers would work after a hypothetical 60 seat 2026 election. The 2026 election will be for a 96 seat Senedd from 16 constituencies electing 6 members each by d'Hondt PR. The last 60 seat election was in 2021.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 25, 2023 19:35:24 GMT
The reason there will be temporary pairing for 2026 then a full review for 2030 is simply to get the extra members now while the political arithmetic works (Labour plus Plaid), it’s delicate and there’s no guarantee that the numbers would work after a hypothetical 60 seat 2026 election. The 2026 election will be for a 96 seat Senedd from 16 constituencies electing 6 members each by d'Hondt PR. The last 60 seat election was in 2021. So you’re agreeing with LDCaerdydd then.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 7, 2023 5:15:47 GMT
Having one single election using the paired constituencies and a closed party list must be a one-time event and should never be repeated. There must be an electoral commission established at the first opportunity to agree a better fairer system. The link to Westminster constiuencies is unneccesary and should be dropped - 16x6 seat constituencies sounds reasonable but expect some bizarre alternatives proposed for narrow party gain.
I like the concept of STV being used for Council areas but in which case we need to drastically restructure the Councils first - to 8-12 councils say - but this will never happen in time.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 7, 2023 5:51:46 GMT
So if Wales (pop 3.1 mill) was to have 96 Senedd members, then each member would represent around 33,000 people. (I have used population not electorate but it should give the same broad result).
The seats (electoral district) should be based on Council areas (or multiples of) with seats ideally returning 6-8 members
The smallest seat returning 6 members for a population of 198,000 +/- 7% (14k people) The largest ideal seat should return 8 members for a population of 264,000 +/-7% (18k people).
Smaller and larger seats could be possible but avoided - The largest Council area of Cardiff would return 11-12 members but this could probably be better divided into two smaller seats of 6 members each.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Dec 18, 2023 15:15:04 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 18, 2023 15:18:57 GMT
Good for him, but anyway…
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 18, 2023 15:25:00 GMT
He went out of his way to ensure there was no referendum on the future of Rob Roberts.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 22, 2023 14:18:45 GMT
Wouldnt it be fun if his referendum went ahead and abolish narrowly lost by say 5,000 votes*. And the bill then prevented the referendum from being repeated for 25 years.... * Unlikely seeing as how all opinion polls point to 65-75% support for devolution. He is just desperate for attention.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,531
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Post by johng on Dec 22, 2023 15:01:16 GMT
Getting rid of him will be one of the (many) great positives of the coming election.
Plus we had a referendum on 2011 so just 12.5 years ago. I imagine any referendum held tomorrow would have a similar result. About 65% for devolution and 35% against.
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