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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 19, 2023 17:54:29 GMT
Playing around with a 10% tolerance, the best option looks something like this: Wrexham/Denbighshire/Flintshire - two seats (probably an east/west split) Conwy/Gwynedd/Ynys Mon/Montgomeryshire - two seats (probably a north/south split, with Llanwrst having to go into the southern split to make the numbers work) Ceredigion/Pembrokeshire - one seat Carmarthenshire - one seat Swansea/NPT - two seats (probably with a boundary in Swansea matching the proposed Westminster ones) Brecon/Radnor/Merthyr/RCT/Bridgend/Vale - three seats (one covering Barry and Bridgend; one merging Pontypridd, Rhondda and most of the present Ogmore; one covering the Cynon Valley and points northwards) Cardiff and Penarth - two seats (plenty of options for where to draw the boundary Caerphilly - one seat Rest of Gwent - two seats (several ways to split this) Some of those are less than lovely (particularly putting Rhayader and Mountain Ash in the same seat) but overall it's considerably more functional than a simple combination of Westminster seats would be. EDIT: Putting Brecon and Radnor in a group of 3 seats with Swansea, Bridgend and NPT; then putting Merthyr in a group of 2 with RCT and the Vale also works. It's only really a link with Monmouthshire that causes problems. I still think pairing Monmouth and Brecon & Radnor makes more sense That only comes to 0.88 seats though, so you would have to add a few Montgomeryshire wards as well.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 19, 2023 18:01:11 GMT
Yea, Indeed, Verily, It Is So At school we went through a phase of saying that instead of “yes” and it seems to have stuck. I sometimes forget that not everyone went to the same school as me. No one went to the same 'school' as you John! Gavin Barwell did and Andrew Pelling
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 19, 2023 18:44:58 GMT
No one went to the same 'school' as you John! Gavin Barwell did and Andrew Pelling That's not a very good recommendation is it!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 20, 2023 8:12:12 GMT
I still think pairing Monmouth and Brecon & Radnor makes more sense That only comes to 0.88 seats though, so you would have to add a few Montgomeryshire wards as well. More significantly, assuming you're letting Caerphilly stand alone, it means you're likely to end up carving up Newport.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Sept 20, 2023 12:22:59 GMT
I've done the maths on the final set of parliamentary boundaries: I reckon there are 1,222 permutations of 16 pairs of connected constituencies that the BCW can choose from for the next set of Senedd boundaries.
Notes: 1 - I'm assuming that Ynys Mon can be paired with either Bangor Aberconwy or Dwyfor Merironnedd. 2 - Neath and Swansea East, Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Rhondda and Ogmore, Aberafan Maesteg meet at a point X - I am assuming that you cannot allow a pairing across this (i.e. NSE can go with MTA or AM but not RO) 3 - There are a few pairings (e.g. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr and Ceredigion Preseli) which aren't allowable as they would leave an odd number of constituencies stuck on either side.
A lot of the map is driven by what you do with Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe. If it goes with: Blaneau Gwent & Rhymney - there are 96 options Carmarthen - 192 options Ceredigion Preseli - also 192 options (this isn't a coincidence, they only differ here on each option) Gower - 192 options (again it's the same options tweaked slightly here) Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - 108 options Monmouthshire - 186 options Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - 64 options Neath and Swansea East - 192 options (again a variant of the same ones)
If we put some quick common sense in (don't laugh at the back) and insist that Swansea West and East form a pair, and that the Cardiff seats form 2 pairs between them, I reckon there are only 200 possible maps to choose from. How much public money will go into picking one from 200???
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Post by mattb on Sept 21, 2023 8:17:11 GMT
I've done the maths on the final set of parliamentary boundaries: I reckon there are 1,222 permutations of 16 pairs of connected constituencies that the BCW can choose from for the next set of Senedd boundaries. Notes: 1 - I'm assuming that Ynys Mon can be paired with either Bangor Aberconwy or Dwyfor Merironnedd. 2 - Neath and Swansea East, Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Rhondda and Ogmore, Aberafan Maesteg meet at a point X - I am assuming that you cannot allow a pairing across this (i.e. NSE can go with MTA or AM but not RO) 3 - There are a few pairings (e.g. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr and Ceredigion Preseli) which aren't allowable as they would leave an odd number of constituencies stuck on either side. A lot of the map is driven by what you do with Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe. If it goes with: Blaneau Gwent & Rhymney - there are 96 options Carmarthen - 192 options Ceredigion Preseli - also 192 options (this isn't a coincidence, they only differ here on each option) Gower - 192 options (again it's the same options tweaked slightly here) Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - 108 options Monmouthshire - 186 options Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - 64 options Neath and Swansea East - 192 options (again a variant of the same ones) If we put some quick common sense in (don't laugh at the back) and insist that Swansea West and East form a pair, and that the Cardiff seats form 2 pairs between them, I reckon there are only 200 possible maps to choose from. How much public money will go into picking one from 200??? If you insist on the seats with Swansea in the name going together, you're pretty-much forced into pairing Brecon with Carmarthen. If you then keep Cardiff together in 2 seats and Newport together, the rest of the map in the south draws itself. Your only remaining choice is Montgomery with Wrexham or Caernarfon ...
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Sept 21, 2023 8:56:20 GMT
As a non-local, I'd assumed it would be a near certainty that the Swansea seats would go together. And yes I missed the same with the Newport seats.
Is it not that simple? Are there good reasons why Swansea might be split?
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 21, 2023 9:05:25 GMT
As a non-local, I'd assumed it would be a near certainty that the Swansea seats would go together. And yes I missed the same with the Newport seats. Is it not that simple? Are there good reasons why Swansea might be split? It is too big for just the one seat seems a starter!
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 21, 2023 9:09:14 GMT
As a non-local, I'd assumed it would be a near certainty that the Swansea seats would go together. And yes I missed the same with the Newport seats. Is it not that simple? Are there good reasons why Swansea might be split? Gower is also sort of a Swansea seat: entirely within the council area and containing some of the western parts of the urban area. So I thought it was OK to put it with Swansea West, which allows Carmarthenshire to be treated as a unit.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 21, 2023 10:24:36 GMT
If you insist on the seats with Swansea in the name going together, you're pretty-much forced into pairing Brecon with Carmarthen. That's not the worst idea ever- at least they're both broadly rural seats with a large shared border. Brecon doesn't have any great options for pairing really.
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Post by aberdarian on Sept 21, 2023 13:04:31 GMT
I've done the maths on the final set of parliamentary boundaries: I reckon there are 1,222 permutations of 16 pairs of connected constituencies that the BCW can choose from for the next set of Senedd boundaries. Notes: 1 - I'm assuming that Ynys Mon can be paired with either Bangor Aberconwy or Dwyfor Merironnedd. 2 - Neath and Swansea East, Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Rhondda and Ogmore, Aberafan Maesteg meet at a point X - I am assuming that you cannot allow a pairing across this (i.e. NSE can go with MTA or AM but not RO) 3 - There are a few pairings (e.g. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr and Ceredigion Preseli) which aren't allowable as they would leave an odd number of constituencies stuck on either side. A lot of the map is driven by what you do with Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe. If it goes with: Blaneau Gwent & Rhymney - there are 96 options Carmarthen - 192 options Ceredigion Preseli - also 192 options (this isn't a coincidence, they only differ here on each option) Gower - 192 options (again it's the same options tweaked slightly here) Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - 108 options Monmouthshire - 186 options Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr - 64 options Neath and Swansea East - 192 options (again a variant of the same ones) If we put some quick common sense in (don't laugh at the back) and insist that Swansea West and East form a pair, and that the Cardiff seats form 2 pairs between them, I reckon there are only 200 possible maps to choose from. How much public money will go into picking one from 200??? Can Ynys Môn be paired with Dwyfor Meirionydd? I might be wrong but I thought the mainland ends of both the Menai and Britannia Bridges were in the Bangor Aberconwy constituency. Therefore you'd need to go through another constituency to get between the two parts of an Ynys Môn/Dwyfor Meirionydd combined constituency. Would they allow that?
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Post by aberdarian on Sept 21, 2023 13:17:25 GMT
If you insist on the seats with Swansea in the name going together, you're pretty-much forced into pairing Brecon with Carmarthen. That's not the worst idea ever- at least they're both broadly rural seats with a large shared border. Brecon doesn't have any great options for pairing really. It might be the best idea. As well as being both broadly rural they do have reasonable transport links (A40, A483, even a railway - ok not very frequent, quick or reliable). Also the Cwmtawe part of the new Brecon, Radnor & Cwmtawe constituency, which probably feels a bit out on a limb, is close to the Amman Valley part of the Carmarthen constituency and shares much in common. I imagine there might be a stronger argument for keeping the whole of Carmarthenshire together though.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 21, 2023 13:48:28 GMT
What are the chances that when the public/ politicians / media see the true horror of these new combined seats, it leads to a complete re-think.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 21, 2023 13:50:04 GMT
How can the devolved administration have less local representation than the national government covering an area many times the former's size. Its counter intuitive
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 21, 2023 13:50:30 GMT
What are the chances that when the public/ politicians / media see the true horror of these new combined seats, it leads to a complete re-think. They are no worse than the existing top-up regions.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 21, 2023 16:19:06 GMT
Out of interest, what was the rationale for calling Dwyfor Meirionydd that? Caernarfon will be the largest town in the new constituency and has a notable political history, and I do not think that a small river on the Llŷn (though historically in the Eifionydd, of course) really covers it, even if the name of that river was incorporated into David Lloyd George's title. But then the entire Welsh map was drawn and named with monumental ignorance.
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 21, 2023 17:07:47 GMT
Out of interest, what was the rationale for calling Dwyfor Meirionydd that? Caernarfon will be the largest town in the new constituency and has a notable political history, and I do not think that a small river on the Llŷn (though historically in the Eifionydd, of course) really covers it, even if the name of that river was incorporated into David Lloyd George's title. But then the entire Welsh map was drawn and named with monumental ignorance. The BCW has a liking for using the names of long abolished districts (see also Glyndŵr) and the existing constituency is a reasonable fit for Meirionnydd plus the former district of Dwyfor. I think the addition of Caernarfon should have prompted a name change to Caernarfon Meirionnydd or the like, but they chose to stick with the existing name for some reason.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 21, 2023 17:16:45 GMT
Out of interest, what was the rationale for calling Dwyfor Meirionydd that? Caernarfon will be the largest town in the new constituency and has a notable political history, and I do not think that a small river on the Llŷn (though historically in the Eifionydd, of course) really covers it, even if the name of that river was incorporated into David Lloyd George's title. But then the entire Welsh map was drawn and named with monumental ignorance. The BCW has a liking for using the names of long abolished districts (see also Glyndŵr) and the existing constituency is a reasonable fit for Meirionnydd plus the former district of Dwyfor. I think the addition of Caernarfon should have prompted a name change to Caernarfon Meirionnydd or the like, but they chose to stick with the existing name for some reason. It's baffling. Genuinely no one identifies with 'Dwyfor' (well, perhaps some people in Llanystumdwy do, but that would be about it) and it is definitely a name that people from outside the area would struggle to find on a map.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 21, 2023 17:29:52 GMT
How can the devolved administration have less local representation than the national government covering an area many times the former's size. Its counter intuitive Of course the way to achieve the most local possible representation would be single-member constituencies elected by FPTP or AV. Which would actually work quite well for a 96-member Welsh Parliament if you allow 10% deviation or so.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 21, 2023 21:20:57 GMT
What are the chances that when the public/ politicians / media see the true horror of these new combined seats, it leads to a complete re-think. They are no worse than the existing top-up regions. They are as the top up regions are just that ‘regions’ and never pretended at local representation. These mega seats will be the only form of representation. It is really rather unappreciated that Wales will go from 40 neat rather sensible and long-standing seats used for both Parliaments, to 32 (-8) rather awkwardly drawn Westminster seats, and 16 monster even more awkwardly drawn assembly constituencies.
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