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Post by Lord Twaddleford on May 9, 2024 20:09:52 GMT
The proposals passed yesterday and will come into force for the 2026 Elections. Increase from 60 to 96 Members. 16 Constituencies each electing 6 members. Parings of the 32 Westminster seats to make 16 larger seats still tbc. www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw07kprpg74oAnd of course they choose possibly the worst way of going about it, naturally...
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 9, 2024 21:20:13 GMT
Senedd constituencies and the 2026 boundary review 2 (1) The area of each Senedd constituency must consist of the combined areas of two contiguous UK parliamentary constituencies in Wales. (2) The Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru (“the Commission”) must conduct a review (“the 2026 boundary review”) in accordance with this Schedule to determine— (a) which contiguous UK parliamentary constituencies in Wales are to be combined to create the areas of the 16 Senedd constituencies, (b) the names of the Senedd constituencies, and (c) whether each Senedd constituency is a county constituency or a borough constituency. That does raise the question of whether Ynys Mon is actually contiguous with any other constituency? There is a general feeling they will rule that it is to be paired with Bangor Aberconwy because of the Menai Bridge
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on May 9, 2024 22:24:43 GMT
I don’t know how authoritative it is, but Open Street Map appears to show that the council boundaries on either side of the Menai Straight cling close to the coast. This results in the cartographic impression that the middle sections of both the Menai Bridge and Britannia Bridge belong to neither council area and are a kind of no man’s land outside of local authority control.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 9, 2024 22:58:34 GMT
I don’t know how authoritative it is, but Open Street Map appears to show that the council boundaries on either side of the Menai Straight cling close to the coast. This results in the cartographic impression that the middle sections of both the Menai Bridge and Britannia Bridge belong to neither council area and are a kind of no man’s land outside of local authority control. That's wrong, but only slightly. The boundaries are the normal case of the low water mark - as can be seen on maps where a boundary crosses the mouth of a river, such as the mouth of the Ogwan - but peculiar here as you'd sort-of expect the straits to sort-of be treated as a river for boundary purposes. It does seem to suggest that areas like the Traeth Gwyllt sandbanks are not in any local authority. Doubly odd as the Holyhead strait *does* have a boundary down the middle, but it is also not a river but a sea channel.
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Post by edgbaston on May 9, 2024 22:58:38 GMT
6 seat D’hont is a bit painful for all but the 3 major parties, as it produces a quota of just over 14%. A figure probably just out of reach of the Lib Dems or Reform nationally even in a really good year. The Lib Dems will probably get one seat in whichever area Brecon is combined with due to a concentration in support there however. The other 15 constituencies are surely then bound to return at least 2 Labour members, 1 Tory and 1 Plaid. And two of those are bound to return at least 2 Plaid. So that’s a thrilling 30 seats in contention in a parliament of 96. And a guaranteed outcome of Labour largest party, with Plaid confidence and supply. Thrilling stuff.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 10, 2024 0:02:25 GMT
Well, it's not a game show format. They don't design electoral systems to be as exciting as possible for observers, though it'd be great if a jurisdiction somewhere in the world could arrange that for us!
I support additional representation in the Senedd given population growth (slower than in the rest of the UK but that's irrelevant to an internal Welsh matter) and extra powers since 1999, but I wish it hadn't been such a leap all at once and even more than that, I think they should've gone for an odd number of MSs. "More professional politicians" never goes down well, and populist appeals to false equivalence make the increase tougher to swallow again.
If they had to keep a link to the Westminster boundaries because there isn't time for a full review before 2026, then I'd say 31 on the mainland should be split in two with Môn left to stand alone so 63 constituency members + 20 top-up = a more reasonable 83 seats.
Trouble is, Plaid would then say that doesn't meet the criterion of "at least as proportional as the current system" so they'd have voted it down and then we'd be back to square one.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 10, 2024 8:24:47 GMT
6 seat D’hont is a bit painful for all but the 3 major parties, as it produces a quota of just over 14%. A figure probably just out of reach of the Lib Dems or Reform nationally even in a really good year. The Lib Dems will probably get one seat in whichever area Brecon is combined with due to a concentration in support there however. The other 15 constituencies are surely then bound to return at least 2 Labour members, 1 Tory and 1 Plaid. And two of those are bound to return at least 2 Plaid. So that’s a thrilling 30 seats in contention in a parliament of 96. And a guaranteed outcome of Labour largest party, with Plaid confidence and supply. Thrilling stuff. There are plenty of areas of Wales where the Lib Dems are stronger than Plaid. Cardiff for sure, with the distinct possibility also existing in several other seats such as the likely Monmouthshire and Torfaen. I wouldn't be at all confident in Plaid getting seats in all of the constituencies. And in the current political circumstances Reform should have a shot at a few.
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Post by stb12 on May 10, 2024 8:39:53 GMT
Would an expansion and using multi member STV have been viable at all?
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Post by edgbaston on May 10, 2024 11:12:35 GMT
Is there any other county on this green earth that uses so many electoral systems to elect its national governments
Westminster FPTP Scotland AMS Wales List D’hondt Northern Ireland STV
Bonus! Local government using a mixture of STV, FPTP, FPTP by thirds/halves, and plurality block voting
And until very recently SV
I think we must be #1 for electoral system diversity .
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2024 11:14:15 GMT
And local byelections in Scotland are de facto conducted by AV.
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Post by stb12 on May 10, 2024 11:21:11 GMT
If the Lords become elected need to think up another new system
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 10, 2024 12:34:19 GMT
6 seat D’hont is a bit painful for all but the 3 major parties, as it produces a quota of just over 14%. A figure probably just out of reach of the Lib Dems or Reform nationally even in a really good year. The Lib Dems will probably get one seat in whichever area Brecon is combined with due to a concentration in support there however. The other 15 constituencies are surely then bound to return at least 2 Labour members, 1 Tory and 1 Plaid. And two of those are bound to return at least 2 Plaid. So that’s a thrilling 30 seats in contention in a parliament of 96. And a guaranteed outcome of Labour largest party, with Plaid confidence and supply. Thrilling stuff.Why do you think Labour created this system in the first place and why Plaid have not argued against it?
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Post by edgbaston on May 10, 2024 13:00:59 GMT
6 seat D’hont is a bit painful for all but the 3 major parties, as it produces a quota of just over 14%. A figure probably just out of reach of the Lib Dems or Reform nationally even in a really good year. The Lib Dems will probably get one seat in whichever area Brecon is combined with due to a concentration in support there however. The other 15 constituencies are surely then bound to return at least 2 Labour members, 1 Tory and 1 Plaid. And two of those are bound to return at least 2 Plaid. So that’s a thrilling 30 seats in contention in a parliament of 96. And a guaranteed outcome of Labour largest party, with Plaid confidence and supply. Thrilling stuff.Why do you think Labour created this system in the first place and why Plaid have not argued against it? Sadly it means we will probably never see Harry Hayfield AM
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Post by stb12 on May 10, 2024 13:06:01 GMT
Why do you think Labour created this system in the first place and why Plaid have not argued against it? Sadly it means we will probably never see Harry Hayfield AM Its interesting how under AMS the Greens in Scotland (separate party I know) have had at least one MSP since the first parliament but never been a breakthrough at all in Wales
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 10, 2024 13:09:44 GMT
Sadly it means we will probably never see Harry Hayfield AM Its interesting how under AMS the Greens in Scotland (separate party I know) have had at least one MSP since the first parliament but never been a breakthrough at all in Wales Not especially surprising - the Welsh reasons have fewer top-up members. Would the Greens have broken through with only four top-up seats per region?
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Post by stb12 on May 10, 2024 13:14:22 GMT
Its interesting how under AMS the Greens in Scotland (separate party I know) have had at least one MSP since the first parliament but never been a breakthrough at all in Wales Not especially surprising - the Welsh reasons have fewer top-up members. Would the Greens have broken through with only four top-up seats per region? For someone with better skills than me to work that out! The 2003 Scottish Parliament had a real variety of smaller parties and independents but since then no-one new has made any breakthrough and only the Greens remain from outside the traditional main four
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 10, 2024 16:05:10 GMT
Its interesting how under AMS the Greens in Scotland (separate party I know) have had at least one MSP since the first parliament but never been a breakthrough at all in Wales Not especially surprising - the Welsh reasons have fewer top-up members. Would the Greens have broken through with only four top-up seats per region? 1999: No Greens elected 2003: Lothian (1), Highlands and Islands (1), Scotland Mid and Fife (1) 2007: Lothian (1) 2011: Lothian (1), Glasgow (1) 2016: Lothian (1), Glasgow (1) 2021: Lothian (1), Glasgow (1), Scotland Mid and Fife (1)
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 12, 2024 14:16:06 GMT
Senedd constituencies and the 2026 boundary review 2 (1) The area of each Senedd constituency must consist of the combined areas of two contiguous UK parliamentary constituencies in Wales. (2) The Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru (“the Commission”) must conduct a review (“the 2026 boundary review”) in accordance with this Schedule to determine— (a) which contiguous UK parliamentary constituencies in Wales are to be combined to create the areas of the 16 Senedd constituencies, (b) the names of the Senedd constituencies, and (c) whether each Senedd constituency is a county constituency or a borough constituency. That does raise the question of whether Ynys Mon is actually contiguous with any other constituency? So, if the Welsh government were to collapse leading to an election before 2026, under what system would the election be held?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 12, 2024 14:38:44 GMT
Senedd constituencies and the 2026 boundary review 2 (1) The area of each Senedd constituency must consist of the combined areas of two contiguous UK parliamentary constituencies in Wales. (2) The Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru (“the Commission”) must conduct a review (“the 2026 boundary review”) in accordance with this Schedule to determine— (a) which contiguous UK parliamentary constituencies in Wales are to be combined to create the areas of the 16 Senedd constituencies, (b) the names of the Senedd constituencies, and (c) whether each Senedd constituency is a county constituency or a borough constituency. That does raise the question of whether Ynys Mon is actually contiguous with any other constituency? So, if the Welsh government were to collapse leading to an election before 2026, under what system would the election be held? The current system, constituencies and regional lists (but as Labour FELL in Wales compared to 2019, the government is not going to collapse no matter how angry those two Senedd members feel) as they would lose seats to Reform and Plaid
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 12, 2024 14:42:22 GMT
So, if the Welsh government were to collapse leading to an election before 2026, under what system would the election be held? The current system, here's the relevant part of the explanatory note: On a separate note I'd imagine now the GE is out of the way we will see an announcement (unlikely to be any public consultation) on the parings this side of Christmas.
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