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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 18, 2023 15:14:23 GMT
The problem is the six northern councils would be entitled to 3.58 constituencies, which doesn't work on its own, so you have to split either Powys or Ceredigion.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 18, 2023 15:42:23 GMT
The problem is the six northern councils would be entitled to 3.58 constituencies, which doesn't work on its own, so you have to split either Powys or Ceredigion. Powys. Ceredigion needs to be paired with Pembrokeshire for these purposes.
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Post by Penddu on Sept 18, 2023 16:56:58 GMT
The paired Westminster arrangement is for one term only - then we will have a new Wales only set of boundaries. So I cant too excited by these new boundaries. Hopefully we will also scrap the fixed list PR system at the same time.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 18, 2023 17:01:14 GMT
The paired Westminster arrangement is for one term only - then we will have a new Wales only set of boundaries. So I cant too excited by these new boundaries. Hopefully we will also scrap the fixed list PR system at the same time. Hopefully only the 'fixed' bit! What pr system are they using? D'Hondt?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 18, 2023 17:43:51 GMT
Hopefully the pre 2030 (dear god) boundary review will start from a blank slate and be prepared if necessary to ignore Westminster Seats, Counties and Historic Counties.
Messing around with a pre 1974 map of Dyfed, Glamorgan and Clwyd etc in this day and age achieves very little in my book.
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Post by Wisconsin on Sept 18, 2023 18:02:20 GMT
Hopefully the pre 2030 (dear god) boundary review will start from a blank slate and be prepared if necessary to ignore Westminster Seats, Counties and Historic Counties. Messing around with a pre 1974 map of Dyfed, Glamorgan and Clwyd etc in this day and age achieves very little in my book. The proposed statutory criteria are on page 21 here (proposed section 46C): senedd.wales/media/iaifuxyj/pri-ld16037-e.pdfNo explicit requirement to take into account Westminster seats or archaic subdivisions (just “local ties that would be broken by changes”). It includes the requirement to seek to minimise change from existing constituencies, which as far as I can tell would include minimising change from the 2026 constituencies.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 18, 2023 18:15:50 GMT
The paired Westminster arrangement is for one term only - then we will have a new Wales only set of boundaries. So I cant too excited by these new boundaries. Hopefully we will also scrap the fixed list PR system at the same time. Hopefully only the 'fixed' bit! What pr system are they using? D'Hondt? YIVIIS
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Post by Penddu on Sept 18, 2023 18:54:31 GMT
Hopefully the pre 2030 (dear god) boundary review will start from a blank slate and be prepared if necessary to ignore Westminster Seats, Counties and Historic Counties. Messing around with a pre 1974 map of Dyfed, Glamorgan and Clwyd etc in this day and age achieves very little in my book. The proposed statutory criteria are on page 21 here (proposed section 46C): senedd.wales/media/iaifuxyj/pri-ld16037-e.pdfNo explicit requirement to take into account Westminster seats or archaic subdivisions (just “local ties that would be broken by changes”). It includes the requirement to seek to minimise change from existing constituencies, which as far as I can tell would include minimising change from the 2026 constituencies. Minimising changes does not mean slavishly avoiding change. What are the other criteria??
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Post by Penddu on Sept 18, 2023 19:02:49 GMT
Before redrawing electoral boundaries, we should start with redrawing the local authority map into say 6 (5-8) regions. Then align constituencies with regions.
Too sensible? Ok forget it....
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Post by Wisconsin on Sept 18, 2023 19:07:06 GMT
The proposed statutory criteria are on page 21 here (proposed section 46C): senedd.wales/media/iaifuxyj/pri-ld16037-e.pdfNo explicit requirement to take into account Westminster seats or archaic subdivisions (just “local ties that would be broken by changes”). It includes the requirement to seek to minimise change from existing constituencies, which as far as I can tell would include minimising change from the 2026 constituencies. Minimising changes does not mean slavishly avoiding change. What are the other criteria?? It’s proposed section 46C on page 21 of above line. I can’t copy and paste for some reason. They may have regard to existing or pending local government boundaries, special geographic considerations (size/shape/accessibility), and any local ties that may be broken by changes. Commission must seek to minimise amount of change from existing constituencies, and must have regard to inconveniences arising from changes.
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Post by Penddu on Sept 19, 2023 2:36:30 GMT
Minimising changes does not mean slavishly avoiding change. What are the other criteria?? It’s proposed section 46C on page 21 of above line. I can’t copy and paste for some reason. They may have regard to existing or pending local government boundaries, special geographic considerations (size/shape/accessibility), and any local ties that may be broken by changes. Commission must seek to minimise amount of change from existing constituencies, and must have regard to inconveniences arising from changes. I cant open file at all. 'Must have regard to...' and 'seek to minimise..' are both suitably vague.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 19, 2023 4:56:52 GMT
Hopefully only the 'fixed' bit! What pr system are they using? D'Hondt? YIVIIS Google doesn't know what that means and neither do I, sorry.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 19, 2023 6:17:10 GMT
Google doesn't know what that means and neither do I, sorry. Sometimes it’s best not to ask, just nod and smile politely.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,824
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 19, 2023 6:31:06 GMT
It's our old friend d'Hondt PR
8 Calculation of seat allocation figures
(1) This section and section 9 are about the allocation, to registered political parties or individual candidates, of the seats for a Senedd constituency at a general election.
(2) For each registered political party by which a list of candidates has been 5 submitted under section 7 (candidates at general elections) for the constituency— (a) the votes given in the constituency for the party are to be added up, and (b) the number arrived at under paragraph (a) is to be divided by 10 the seat allocation divisor.
(3) On the first calculation for a party under subsection (2)(b), the seat allocation divisor for the party is one (section 9 makes provision about recalculations under that subsection with an increased divisor).
(4) For each individual candidate to be a Member of the Senedd for the 15 constituency, the votes given in the constituency for the candidate are to be added up.
(5) The number arrived at— (a) in the case of a registered political party, under subsection (2)(b), or 20 (b) in the case of an individual candidate, under subsection (4), is referred to in section 9 as the “seat allocation figure” for that party or individual candidate.
9 Allocation of seats
(1) The first seat for a Senedd constituency is to be allocated to the 25 registered political party or individual candidate with the highest seat allocation figure.
(2) The second and subsequent seats for the constituency are to be allocated to the party or individual candidate with the highest seat allocation figure after any recalculation required by subsection (3) has 30 been carried out.
(3) This subsection requires a recalculation of the seat allocation figure for a registered political party— (a) for the first application of subsection (2), if the application of subsection (1) resulted in the allocation to the party of a seat for 35 the constituency, or (b) for any subsequent application of subsection (2), if the previous application of that subsection resulted in the allocation to the party of a seat for the constituency, and each recalculation is to be carried out under section 8(2)(b) after adding one to the previous seat allocation divisor for that party.
(4) An individual candidate already allocated a seat as a Member of the Senedd for the constituency is to be disregarded when applying subsection (2).
(5) Seats for the constituency that are allocated to a party are to be filled by the candidates on the party’s list in the order in which they appear on the list.
(6) Once a party’s list has been exhausted (by the application of subsection (1) or (2)), the party is to be disregarded when applying subsection (2).
(7) If, on the application of subsection (1) or on an application of subsection (2), the highest seat allocation figure is the seat allocation figure for two 10 or more parties or individual candidates (referred to in subsection (8) as the “tied seat allocation figure”), subsection (1) or (2) (as the case may be) applies to each of them.
(8) But if subsection (7) would mean that more than the full number of seats for the constituency were allocated, subsection (1) or (2) is not to 15 be applied until— (a) a recalculation of the seat allocation figure for any party with the tied seat allocation figure has been carried out under section 8(2)(b) after adding one to the number arrived at under section 8(2)(a), and 20 (b) one has been added to the number arrived at under section 8(4) for any individual candidate with the tied seat allocation figure.
(9) If, after that, the highest seat allocation figure is still the seat allocation figure for two or more parties or individual candidates (so it is still the case that more than the full number of seats for the constituency would 25 be allocated), the constituency returning officer must decide between them by lots
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,824
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 19, 2023 8:11:47 GMT
Here's something else of interest. This news story was not on the front page of the Western Mail today, plus when you go online it can only be found about a quarter of the way down the page, thus prompting a discussion of "If the national newspaper of Wales doesn't think it is of import, then what does that say about the Senedd in national life?"
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Post by johnloony on Sept 19, 2023 8:35:42 GMT
Google doesn't know what that means and neither do I, sorry. Yea, Indeed, Verily, It Is So At school we went through a phase of saying that instead of “yes” and it seems to have stuck. I sometimes forget that not everyone went to the same school as me.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 19, 2023 8:43:52 GMT
Here's something else of interest. This news story was not on the front page of the Western Mail today, plus when you go online it can only be found about a quarter of the way down the page, thus prompting a discussion of "If the national newspaper of Wales doesn't think it is of import, then what does that say about the Senedd in national life?" The Western Mail and WalesOnline are both jokes. For The Western Mail to self style itself (still) as the “National newspaper of Wales” when it has a print run of less than 6,200 is nothing short of comical. Especially when you consider how many are bought by the public sector, rather than ‘ordinary residents’ (https://www.abc.org.uk/product/1241-wales-the-western-mail) WalesOnline is more interested in sensationalism clickbate so constitutional reform to a parliament that doesn’t get more than 50% turnout in elections just won’t cut it in terms of clicks/advert revenue. If you’re ever at a loose end. See how many stories the paper prints and how few of them appear online and vice versa. They serve two very different markets and the print paper will shortly be sent to a Mid Wales farm and shot when no one is looking.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 19, 2023 10:16:33 GMT
Playing around with a 10% tolerance, the best option looks something like this:
Wrexham/Denbighshire/Flintshire - two seats (probably an east/west split) Conwy/Gwynedd/Ynys Mon/Montgomeryshire - two seats (probably a north/south split, with Llanwrst having to go into the southern split to make the numbers work) Ceredigion/Pembrokeshire - one seat Carmarthenshire - one seat Swansea/NPT - two seats (probably with a boundary in Swansea matching the proposed Westminster ones) Brecon/Radnor/Merthyr/RCT/Bridgend/Vale - three seats (one covering Barry and Bridgend; one merging Pontypridd, Rhondda and most of the present Ogmore; one covering the Cynon Valley and points northwards) Cardiff and Penarth - two seats (plenty of options for where to draw the boundary Caerphilly - one seat Rest of Gwent - two seats (several ways to split this)
Some of those are less than lovely (particularly putting Rhayader and Mountain Ash in the same seat) but overall it's considerably more functional than a simple combination of Westminster seats would be.
EDIT: Putting Brecon and Radnor in a group of 3 seats with Swansea, Bridgend and NPT; then putting Merthyr in a group of 2 with RCT and the Vale also works. It's only really a link with Monmouthshire that causes problems.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 19, 2023 11:27:54 GMT
Google doesn't know what that means and neither do I, sorry. Yea, Indeed, Verily, It Is So At school we went through a phase of saying that instead of “yes” and it seems to have stuck. I sometimes forget that not everyone went to the same school as me. No one went to the same 'school' as you John!
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,559
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Post by cibwr on Sept 19, 2023 17:07:50 GMT
Playing around with a 10% tolerance, the best option looks something like this: Wrexham/Denbighshire/Flintshire - two seats (probably an east/west split) Conwy/Gwynedd/Ynys Mon/Montgomeryshire - two seats (probably a north/south split, with Llanwrst having to go into the southern split to make the numbers work) Ceredigion/Pembrokeshire - one seat Carmarthenshire - one seat Swansea/NPT - two seats (probably with a boundary in Swansea matching the proposed Westminster ones) Brecon/Radnor/Merthyr/RCT/Bridgend/Vale - three seats (one covering Barry and Bridgend; one merging Pontypridd, Rhondda and most of the present Ogmore; one covering the Cynon Valley and points northwards) Cardiff and Penarth - two seats (plenty of options for where to draw the boundary Caerphilly - one seat Rest of Gwent - two seats (several ways to split this) Some of those are less than lovely (particularly putting Rhayader and Mountain Ash in the same seat) but overall it's considerably more functional than a simple combination of Westminster seats would be. EDIT: Putting Brecon and Radnor in a group of 3 seats with Swansea, Bridgend and NPT; then putting Merthyr in a group of 2 with RCT and the Vale also works. It's only really a link with Monmouthshire that causes problems. I still think pairing Monmouth and Brecon & Radnor makes more sense
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