Leicester East

[ricmk]

Oct 15, 2021 9:41:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 15, 2021 9:13:58 GMT right said:

Recall petitions are actually quite hard to coordinate. Ian Paisley Jr missed one (by a narrow margin) when I think most expected it to succeed.

As with others, my recollection is a bit different regarding that one. It was also the first attempt at one (I think?) and lessons may have been taken from its narrow failure.

In this instance, if its needed I can't see a recall having many problems at all.

My recollection was that there was a significant issue about having 3 signing centres across a large rural constituency, which was seen as being very helpful to Paisley.  The distances involved for many constituents to sign would have been significant, and given the closeness of the result, may well have tipped the balance.  Paisley owed the returning officer there.

There was a lot of uncertainty as the first test of the recall process, but also a sense that the 'crime' was at the lower end of the scale, it certainly feels that way in hindsight having seen successful petitions since.   

[timmullen1]

Oct 15, 2021 9:57:24 GMT ricmk said:

Oct 15, 2021 9:41:22 GMT The Bishop said:

As with others, my recollection is a bit different regarding that one. It was also the first attempt at one (I think?) and lessons may have been taken from its narrow failure.

In this instance, if its needed I can't see a recall having many problems at all.

My recollection was that there was a significant issue about having 3 signing centres across a large rural constituency, which was seen as being very helpful to Paisley.  The distances involved for many constituents to sign would have been significant, and given the closeness of the result, may well have tipped the balance.  Paisley owed the returning officer there.

There was a lot of uncertainty as the first test of the recall process, but also a sense that the 'crime' was at the lower end of the scale, it certainly feels that way in hindsight having seen successful petitions since.   

I think Sinn Fèin and others actually went to court to try and get more signing centres, but were unsuccessful. Given, as you say, that the offence was at the lower end of the scale, and the Paisley/DUP dominance in the constituency, he’d have easily won any by-election anyway.

[The Bishop]

I recall talk of trying to get a "unity" opposition candidate if the recall succeeded, but yes you are correct he would have been strongly favoured for re-election.

[right]

Oct 15, 2021 9:21:31 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 15, 2021 9:13:58 GMT right said:

Recall petitions are actually quite hard to coordinate. Ian Paisley Jr missed one (by a narrow margin) when I think most expected it to succeed.

I don’t think anyone seriously thought the Antrim recall petition would succeed; not only is the Paisley name so ingrained in the constituency, but it would have required some significant defection in the Unionist community, which never seemed to be present. IIRC people felt Brecon and Radnorshire could go either way, but Peterborough was a slam dunk as all the parties were working for Onasanya’s removal.

You needed 10% and the Catholic population and in Northern Ireland is far more easily identifiable than the Conservative and Liberal populations in Leicester

Brecon and Peterborough were marginals with a strong opposition activist base and recent voter data

Of course if Vaz or Galloway get involved in organising a recall things may get a lot easier, but the relative lack of voter data and no currently obvious communal animus against Webbe should make recall harder to organise

[right]

Oct 15, 2021 9:41:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 15, 2021 9:13:58 GMT right said:

Recall petitions are actually quite hard to coordinate. Ian Paisley Jr missed one (by a narrow margin) when I think most expected it to succeed.

As with others, my recollection is a bit different regarding that one. It was also the first attempt at one (I think?) and lessons may have been taken from its narrow failure.

In this instance, if its needed I can't see a recall having many problems at all.

I remember being surprised when it was announced that it had failed and I remember others being so as well, or predicting a by-election beforehand (usually with a DUP victory).

Admittedly that may not have been as general as I remember it.

[timmullen1]

Oct 15, 2021 11:27:38 GMT right said:

Oct 15, 2021 9:21:31 GMT timmullen1 said:

I don’t think anyone seriously thought the Antrim recall petition would succeed; not only is the Paisley name so ingrained in the constituency, but it would have required some significant defection in the Unionist community, which never seemed to be present. IIRC people felt Brecon and Radnorshire could go either way, but Peterborough was a slam dunk as all the parties were working for Onasanya’s removal.

You needed 10% and the Catholic population and in Northern Ireland is far more easily identifiable than the Conservative and Liberal populations in Leicester

Brecon and Peterborough were marginals with a strong opposition activist base and recent voter data

Of course if Vaz or Galloway get involved in organising a recall things may get a lot easier, but the relative lack of voter data and no currently obvious communal animus against Webbe should make recall harder to organise

Oh I think it would be easy in Leicester - Labour have already called on her to resign so would likely try and organise their supporters to sign so they’re not tainted by association, and with a less than 7000 majority to overturn, the Tories likely smell blood in the water, and linking Webbe and Keith Vaz together as “Labour sleaze” will fancy their chances in a by-election, so will also be motivating their supporters to go out and sign.

[andrew111]

Oct 15, 2021 11:38:32 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 15, 2021 11:27:38 GMT right said:

You needed 10% and the Catholic population and in Northern Ireland is far more easily identifiable than the Conservative and Liberal populations in Leicester

Brecon and Peterborough were marginals with a strong opposition activist base and recent voter data

Of course if Vaz or Galloway get involved in organising a recall things may get a lot easier, but the relative lack of voter data and no currently obvious communal animus against Webbe should make recall harder to organise

Oh I think it would be easy in Leicester - Labour have already called on her to resign so would likely try and organise their supporters to sign so they’re not tainted by association, and with a less than 7000 majority to overturn, the Tories likely smell blood in the water, and linking Webbe and Keith Vaz together as “Labour sleaze” will fancy their chances in a by-election, so will also be motivating their supporters to go out and sign.

Not to mention Gorgeous George...

[right]

Oct 15, 2021 11:38:32 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 15, 2021 11:27:38 GMT right said:

You needed 10% and the Catholic population and in Northern Ireland is far more easily identifiable than the Conservative and Liberal populations in Leicester

Brecon and Peterborough were marginals with a strong opposition activist base and recent voter data

Of course if Vaz or Galloway get involved in organising a recall things may get a lot easier, but the relative lack of voter data and no currently obvious communal animus against Webbe should make recall harder to organise

Oh I think it would be easy in Leicester - Labour have already called on her to resign so would likely try and organise their supporters to sign so they’re not tainted by association, and with a less than 7000 majority to overturn, the Tories likely smell blood in the water, and linking Webbe and Keith Vaz together as “Labour sleaze” will fancy their chances in a by-election, so will also be motivating their supporters to go out and sign.

Labour could well call on her to resign and not lift a finger in the petition

Even if they (reasonably) don't see this as a red wall type seat, it will cost them money they don't have and a call to go will have 80% of the effect that an active petition campaign would

Of course if Labour did get involved the chances move from unlikely to very likely

[justin124]

The seat has not always been safe for Labour . The Tory , Peter Bruinvels, won in 1983 and the Tories ran Labour close here in February 1974.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I'm not sure a 38 year old precedent is a very strong base on which to deem it marginal now.

[iainbhx]

There are people in Leicester East who would love to replace Webbe and who will organise to get the recall petition sorted.

[John Chanin]

Webbe has made unpleasant threats in a jealous rage, and been called to account for it. But to be fair she hasn’t actually done any of the things she threatened. Nonetheless this isn’t what we want from our elected representatives, and it would be best if she stood down voluntarily.

I don’t think Leicester East would be under any significant threat were a by-election to take place. The circumstances of a by-election normally have little effect.

[rcronald]

Oct 15, 2021 13:07:57 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'm not sure a 38 year old precedent is a very strong base on which to deem it marginal now.

The seat is not marginal but it is clearly moving against Labour. (probably due to high Hindu population)

[rcronald]

Oct 15, 2021 13:28:42 GMT John Chanin said:

Webbe has made unpleasant threats in a jealous rage, and been called to account for it. But to be fair she hasn’t actually done any of the things she threatened. Nonetheless this isn’t what we want from our elected representatives, and it would be best if she stood down voluntarily.

I don’t think Leicester East would be under any significant threat were a by-election to take place. The circumstances of a by-election normally have little effect.

The only way the seat would be under significant threat is if Galloway takes the 20% of Muslims in the constituency and/or Labour selects a non Hindu (especially a Muslim or Keith Vaz).

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 15, 2021 13:53:42 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 15, 2021 13:07:57 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'm not sure a 38 year old precedent is a very strong base on which to deem it marginal now.

The seat is not marginal, it is clearly moving against Labour. (probably due to high Hindu population)

The selection of Claudia Webbe was very unpopukar in the constituency, I would not rush to read anything as a signiciant long-term movement from Labour to Conaervative from the last General Election. 2015 and 2017 saw swings to Labour, and the turnout was down over 4% in 2019.

[rcronald]

Oct 15, 2021 13:59:03 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Oct 15, 2021 13:53:42 GMT rcronald said:

The seat is not marginal, it is clearly moving against Labour. (probably due to high Hindu population)

The selection of Claudia Webbe was very unpopukar in the constituency, I would not rush to read anything as a signiciant long-term movement from Labour to Conaervative from the last General Election. 2015 and 2017 saw swings to Labour, and the turnout was down over 4% in 2019.

There was a by election in a ward in the constituency and it also had a massive swing towards the Tories.

[maxque]

Oct 15, 2021 14:01:13 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 15, 2021 13:59:03 GMT CatholicLeft said:

The selection of Claudia Webbe was very unpopukar in the constituency, I would not rush to read anything as a signiciant long-term movement from Labour to Conaervative from the last General Election. 2015 and 2017 saw swings to Labour, and the turnout was down over 4% in 2019.

There was a by election in a ward in the constituency and it also had a massive swing towards the Tories.

And, as it was pointed then, that ward has different demographics than most of the constituency.

[justin124]

Oct 15, 2021 13:07:57 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'm not sure a 38 year old precedent is a very strong base on which to deem it marginal now.

The February 1974 result was more striking really. Labour's majority that year was barely 1,400 despite the parties being neck and neck nationally. Bruinvels won by 933 in 1983 when the Tories led nationally by over 15%.

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 15, 2021 14:01:13 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 15, 2021 13:59:03 GMT CatholicLeft said:

The selection of Claudia Webbe was very unpopukar in the constituency, I would not rush to read anything as a signiciant long-term movement from Labour to Conaervative from the last General Election. 2015 and 2017 saw swings to Labour, and the turnout was down over 4% in 2019.

There was a by election in a ward in the constituency and it also had a massive swing towards the Tories.

I refer the honorable gentleman to the post I made on that subject some posts ago.

[rcronald]

Oct 15, 2021 15:22:37 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Oct 15, 2021 14:01:13 GMT rcronald said:

There was a by election in a ward in the constituency and it also had a massive swing towards the Tories.

I refer the honorable gentleman to the post I made on that subject some posts ago.

Yes, I noticed it a couple of minutes ago.