The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 31, 2024 11:35:47 GMT
This is interesting - All of 2013's polls averaged by pollster. It shows the house effect of each. Actually a look back on 2013 polling would be quite interesting as well.... |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 14, 2024 14:49:06 GMT
Wasnt sure where to post this, as I dont think it merits a thread of its own. However, interesting reading - albeit the sample size is only 800
A tangible Brexit "benefit" at last  |
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Post by matureleft on Feb 14, 2024 14:58:00 GMT
Wasnt sure where to post this, as I dont think it merits a thread of its own. However, interesting reading - albeit the sample size is only 800
A tangible Brexit "benefit" at last Hmm. I’d be sceptical. But the failure to impose controls on EU imports equivalent to those the EU imposes on our produce is certainly an irritant and the Australian/NZ deal would hurt some. Plus the new agricultural financial support system will have losers. Here’s an example of concrete disaffection. www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/farmer-tractor-protest-port-dover-video-b2493954.html |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 14, 2024 16:42:02 GMT
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Post by batman on Feb 14, 2024 17:00:51 GMT
There is of course no way that UK farmers will vote in that way in a general election. It is interesting however that farmers' anger towards the Tories appears to be higher than it has been in my memory.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 14, 2024 17:44:25 GMT
Wasnt sure where to post this, as I dont think it merits a thread of its own. However, interesting reading - albeit the sample size is only 800
A tangible Brexit "benefit" at last Hmm. I’d be sceptical. But the failure to impose controls on EU imports equivalent to those the EU imposes on our produce is certainly an irritant and the Australian/NZ deal would hurt some. Plus the new agricultural financial support system will have losers. Here’s an example of concrete disaffection. www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/farmer-tractor-protest-port-dover-video-b2493954.htmlIt shows the problem with treated "Brexits" an a homogenous bloc. I voted Bexit patially in order to abolish absolutely all and any non-consumer-safety controls on imports regardless of where they came from. Other voted Brexit wanting to restrict imports. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 20, 2024 17:40:57 GMT
Turns out Yes, Minister got it right.
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Post by johnloony on Feb 20, 2024 19:47:19 GMT
Turns out Yes, Minister got it right. It is remarkable that the numbers are not much more wildly different. |
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Post by afleitch on Mar 1, 2024 12:51:51 GMT
Some interesting 'flow of the vote' analysis.
Nearly 1 in 10 (9%) 2019 Tory voters are now dead. If Sunak waits to the end of the year, that could be closer to 11%.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 13, 2024 14:05:16 GMT
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Post by tonyhil on Apr 15, 2024 15:55:18 GMT
Just seen a poll in Print Week's Daily Bulletin about General Election voting intention: Reform - 35%; Labour - 24%; Conservative - 22%; LibDem - 7%; Green - 3%. A reasonable estimate of the poll size is 73. I am not impressed with my fellow workers!
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2024 18:05:59 GMT
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Post by afleitch on Apr 18, 2024 14:27:36 GMT
Crossover age now 70
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Post by andrewp on May 9, 2024 10:34:40 GMT
Yougov are certainly getting different results.
The 4 polls reported here in the last 24 hours have the Labour lead going from:
18 to 15
18 to 16
20 to 17
26 to 30
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Post by batman on May 9, 2024 12:25:39 GMT
Yes and the pollsters showing a reduced Labour lead are the ones with the strongest anti-Labour house effect too. I'm not sure why the Tories would have improved in the wake of their disastrous results last week, but I don't think Labour is 30% ahead either.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2024 12:51:51 GMT
Some of those other polls were at least partly before last week's election results were known?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on May 27, 2024 10:34:50 GMT
On Reform UK voters being oversampled:
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on May 27, 2024 10:47:31 GMT
On Reform UK voters being oversampled:
You have to wonder.
There's just no evidence from by elections or local elections that Reform are on up to 14 points.
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Post by greenrichard on May 27, 2024 12:33:15 GMT
On Reform UK voters being oversampled:
You have to wonder.
There's just no evidence from by elections or local elections that Reform are on up to 14 points.
Local elections aren’t a good predictor of national votes for minor parties. I think this is especially true of Reform UK as they don’t seem to value local elections in the same way as Greens and Lib Dem’s do. They don’t stand that many candidates and I don’t think they have a local organisation in place. By-elections in Wellingborough, Kingswood and Blackpool are probably more meaningful and put Reform UK 10%+. Usually one might expect a big squeeze and some of their voters to revert back to the Conservatives. But I think a squeeze only really works if the Conservatives can credibly say they can win. I don’t think many Reform UK voters will believe that at the moment, so their vote could harden. We will see. |
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Post by batman on May 27, 2024 12:34:22 GMT
They aren't in their element in local elections though. The Lib Dems are a by-election party par excellence & not keen on elections where they have to spread their resources much more thinly. The opposite is the case for Reform UK & their linear predecessors.
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