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Post by batman on Aug 2, 2023 17:10:37 GMT
No real net change, no. It is clear that the Tories did make some progress in March - May but that since then Labour has regained almost all of its lead of the beginning of the year. Indeed today's YouGov poll shows the same Labour lead as this average. There is no question which of the two major parties will be the happier about current trends.
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2023 19:47:22 GMT
Polling could become problematic and costly in the near future.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 3, 2023 21:39:47 GMT
Polling could become problematic and costly in the near future. Good. We would be a lot better off if the polling industry is destroyed by any means at all. Look forward to it. |
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Post by batman on Nov 4, 2023 5:41:57 GMT
Polling could become problematic and costly in the near future. Good. We would be a lot better off if the polling industry is destroyed by any means at all. Look forward to it. . Well I wouldn’t be as I work in that industry and I’m a bit old to be looking for new employment |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Nov 4, 2023 7:23:27 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2023 8:17:07 GMT
Generally fair, but I'd take issue with the notion that local council seats were 'selected for their favourable demographics'. It would require deeper and wider study than I've done, but I get the imprssion that Reform stood candidates where they had candidates willing to stand, regardless of demographics. I stood in the ward I live in (because I wanted a candidate I could vote for) which would be dempgraphically one of the weakest wards in the borough. Looking at where they stood in Watford (Central, Nascot, Oxhey, Park, Stanborough) they might almost (ecxepting Stanborough to an extent) have been selected for their unfavourable demographics and the wards which offer the best potential there for Reform (and which had been the strongest wards for UKIP) were ignored (Meriden, Woodside, Tudor). Like I say I'd have to look at more places than a couple of boroughs in Hertfordshire to divine a pattern but I just don't think they're anywhere near to targetting in a smart way (just as UKIP weren't initially either) |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Nov 4, 2023 8:47:39 GMT
Generally fair, but I'd take issue with the notion that local council seats were 'selected for their favourable demographics'. It would require deeper and wider study than I've done, but I get the imprssion that Reform stood candidates where they had candidates willing to stand, regardless of demographics. I stood in the ward I live in (because I wanted a candidate I could vote for) which would be dempgraphically one of the weakest wards in the borough. Looking at where they stood in Watford (Central, Nascot, Oxhey, Park, Stanborough) they might almost (ecxepting Stanborough to an extent) have been selected for their unfavourable demographics and the wards which offer the best potential there for Reform (and which had been the strongest wards for UKIP) were ignored (Meriden, Woodside, Tudor). Like I say I'd have to look at more places than a couple of boroughs in Hertfordshire to divine a pattern but I just don't think they're anywhere near to targetting in a smart way (just as UKIP weren't initially either) I would agree that the pattern of candidacy looks more like where they have candidates who want to stand than any very sophisticated targeting. In Sheffield in 2023 they stood four candidates; two wards were good choices (Richmond and West Ecclesfield; the latter had had UKIP councillors, one of whom was the candidate), one was middling (Beauchief & Greenhill) and one was the sort of ward where they are likely to be beaten by TUSC (Burngreave). In Bristol in 2021 they stood one candidate, in Cotham of all places. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 4, 2023 9:36:18 GMT
Good. We would be a lot better off if the polling industry is destroyed by any means at all. Look forward to it. When I saw you had posted in this thread, I predicted what you would say almost word for word  |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 4, 2023 10:20:10 GMT
Good. We would be a lot better off if the polling industry is destroyed by any means at all. Look forward to it. . Well I wouldn’t be as I work in that industry and I’m a bit old to be looking for new employment Ahh! I didn't know that? I did not wish to cause offence. I suppose there are many things to do with commerce that still require polling? But I am now rather casting about a bit. I had not realized that there would be a wider issue of jobs other than a few at the centre. I thought it was mainly online and on the phone : But perhaps that is indeed what you do from home? |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 4, 2023 10:24:57 GMT
Good. We would be a lot better off if the polling industry is destroyed by any means at all. Look forward to it. When I saw you had posted in this thread, I predicted what you would say almost word for word Oh dear. I am known so well that I have become predictable. In more stable and boring times, in my middle years, I liked the polling as it was a rare actual 'political event'. Now that we are knee-deep in political events and with a flakey febrile electorate, I just don't see the point any more. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 4, 2023 10:49:30 GMT
Generally fair, but I'd take issue with the notion that local council seats were 'selected for their favourable demographics'. It would require deeper and wider study than I've done, but I get the imprssion that Reform stood candidates where they had candidates willing to stand, regardless of demographics. I stood in the ward I live in (because I wanted a candidate I could vote for) which would be dempgraphically one of the weakest wards in the borough. Looking at where they stood in Watford (Central, Nascot, Oxhey, Park, Stanborough) they might almost (ecxepting Stanborough to an extent) have been selected for their unfavourable demographics and the wards which offer the best potential there for Reform (and which had been the strongest wards for UKIP) were ignored (Meriden, Woodside, Tudor). Like I say I'd have to look at more places than a couple of boroughs in Hertfordshire to divine a pattern but I just don't think they're anywhere near to targetting in a smart way (just as UKIP weren't initially either) That was my main criticism as I was reading the article... |
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Post by batman on Nov 4, 2023 15:14:09 GMT
. Well I wouldn’t be as I work in that industry and I’m a bit old to be looking for new employment Ahh! I didn't know that? I did not wish to cause offence. I suppose there are many things to do with commerce that still require polling? But I am now rather casting about a bit. I had not realized that there would be a wider issue of jobs other than a few at the centre. I thought it was mainly online and on the phone : But perhaps that is indeed what you do from home? . Don’t worry, no personal offence taken. I can assure you that there are a lot of fieldworkers as well as online or telephone operatives in the polling industry, and I am one of them. I work on a major ongoing survey on behalf of Transport for London. |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 4, 2023 22:07:06 GMT
I recall an article that was linked to in one of the company polling threads several months ago, which said that they'd been through that pollster's data and found that Reform UK voters were disproportionately likely to be highly politically engaged, whilst Green voters were disproportionately likely to be not very politically engaged. Which is a factor that pollsters don't usually adjust for.
Whilst that article was just one data point, its explanation of the polling data seems extremely plausible. Low-information voters are extremely unlikely to have heard of Reform UK under their current name, but are almost certain to have heard of the Greens. So we are very well-placed to be the default option for unengaged anti-establishment voters (at least in England). If that explanation is correct then it offers a good explanation of why Reform are polling so much better than the non-polling data suggests they should be. If they manage to win over less engaged voters who match their current support base in a GE then they might be able to get something close to the share of the vote that they are currently polling at during a GE. But their by-election performances suggest that this is rather unlikely. Equally, the Greens doing particularly well among unengaged voters means that our vote is in more danger of being squeezed by tactical voting in what is likely to be an anti-Tory election. So both parties are likely to have worse national voteshares at the GE than current polling suggests, but for different reasons.
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,665 
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Dec 6, 2023 11:40:05 GMT
Apparently it is 2 years ago today, 6th December 2021, that the Conservatives last led in an opinion poll. ‘Partygate’ broke on 8th December 2021.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 6, 2023 13:04:44 GMT
And the last poll to give a Labour lead of less than 10 points was in September 2022 (taken just before the infamous mini-Budget)
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Post by formerfifer on Jan 12, 2024 14:51:07 GMT
Question for those better informed in the forum - Watching coverage of forthcoming US elections, when polls are shown/discussed, the MOE is included in the graphics but when polls are discussed in UK media, there's no reference to MOE. Are the British pollsters so much better than US counterparts that there is no MOE or do our media outlets just choose to ignore the concept?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Jan 12, 2024 15:33:55 GMT
Question for those better informed in the forum - Watching coverage of forthcoming US elections, when polls are shown/discussed, the MOE is included in the graphics but when polls are discussed in UK media, there's no reference to MOE. Are the British pollsters so much better than US counterparts that there is no MOE or do our media outlets just choose to ignore the concept? British pollsters are generally better than their US counterparts (though top quality US ones are just as good or better), but the answer to your question is that our media simply ignore the MOE. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 12, 2024 23:05:29 GMT
Question for those better informed in the forum - Watching coverage of forthcoming US elections, when polls are shown/discussed, the MOE is included in the graphics but when polls are discussed in UK media, there's no reference to MOE. Are the British pollsters so much better than US counterparts that there is no MOE or do our media outlets just choose to ignore the concept? Also, USA has some dreadful polls with very low numbers, and accordingly, very high MOE. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 19, 2024 9:58:15 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 30, 2024 21:14:48 GMT
This is interesting - All of 2023's polls averaged by pollster. It shows the house effect of each.
The Tory range is fun; 22% up to 29% and there's a pollster for each point between them. Reform is even wilder - 3% from Ipsos and 8% from People Polling. It's no wonder GB News uses them. Labour, Lib Dem and Green ranges are more realistic. Tory chances at the election look to depend on how real the Reform VI is.
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