General article(s) on Polls

[andrew111]

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/21/british-leavers-and-remainers-as-polarised-as-ever-survey-finds

Europe is going to continue dividing UK politics just like it did for the last 50 years. (and more of course)

[The Bishop]

The thing about Europe is that even if nobody ever changes their 2016 stance, that's ultimately not good news for the anti side given the age factor.

[andrew111]

Oct 22, 2021 9:52:29 GMT The Bishop said:

The thing about Europe is that even if nobody ever changes their 2016 stance, that's ultimately not good news for the anti side given the age factor.

Yes, in particular the HE participation rate and all the cultural attitudes that seem to align with Remain and are less likely to erode with age than Party allegiance does.

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[nodealbrexiteer]

ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Sad to hear the site is closing

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 30, 2021 11:50:47 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Sad to hear the site is closing

That's not surprising, but nevertheless a real pity!
Always circumspect.
And then its - despite the trash - informative forum.

[andrew111]

Dec 4, 2021 8:02:10 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Nov 30, 2021 11:50:47 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Sad to hear the site is closing

That's not surprising, but nevertheless a real pity!
Always circumspect.
And then its - despite the trash - informative forum.

There is a new place that the regular posters have transferred to, apparently. I gave up on it a couple of years ago, same old arguments by the same old people and not organised like this one where you can mostly avoid scrolling through things you are not interested in.

[hullenedge]

[batman]

which poll had Labour 11% ahead? I didn't see one

[YL]

Dec 13, 2021 17:00:43 GMT batman said:

which poll had Labour 11% ahead? I didn't see one

That's not the range of leads from actual polls, it's a range of plausible leads given by a statistical model based on aggregating the polls.

[John Chanin]

More or Less had this hilarious finding this week. Tim Harford set up a twitter poll asking people who follow him whether twitter polls are useful. And several thousand people responded, three quarters of them saying that twitter polls were useless.

But if twitter polls are useless,why on earth would you respond to one in the first place? Humans are very strange.

[andrew111]

Jan 23, 2022 20:41:03 GMT John Chanin said:

More or Less had this hilarious finding this week. Tim Harford set up a twitter poll asking people who follow him whether twitter polls are useful. And several thousand people responded, three quarters of them saying that twitter polls were useless.

But if twitter polls are useless,why on earth would you respond to one in the first place? Humans are very strange.

I heard that. Tim concluded that the result was quite useful! (and that people who follow him are probably better informed about polling than your typical twitterati)

[peterl]

Jan 23, 2022 20:41:03 GMT John Chanin said:

More or Less had this hilarious finding this week. Tim Harford set up a twitter poll asking people who follow him whether twitter polls are useful. And several thousand people responded, three quarters of them saying that twitter polls were useless.

But if twitter polls are useless,why on earth would you respond to one in the first place? Humans are very strange.

Answers an Interesting philosophical question. Can social media create something so pointless that even social media users think its pointless? Apparently so.

[jamie]

Boris being less popular at the 2019 election than Corbyn or May were at the 2017 election is one of those things that a lot of the data suggests (almost certainly less popular than May) yet it goes almost entirely unmentioned when discussing his popularity, including by many people who should know better.

[carlton43]

Feb 1, 2022 13:40:38 GMT jamie said:

Boris being less popular at the 2019 election than Corbyn or May were at the 2017 election is one of those things that a lot of the data suggests (almost certainly less popular than May) yet it goes almost entirely unmentioned when discussing his popularity, including by many people who should know better.

That is because general acceptance and popularity is not politically important, whereas targeted demographic popularity is very important to the winning of seats, as both Johnson and May demonstrated to marked effect.

[andrew111]

Feb 1, 2022 13:40:38 GMT jamie said:

Boris being less popular at the 2019 election than Corbyn or May were at the 2017 election is one of those things that a lot of the data suggests (almost certainly less popular than May) yet it goes almost entirely unmentioned when discussing his popularity, including by many people who should know better.

I don't know where they have got that data from, but May's popularity absolutely plummeted during the 2017 election campaign to -34%

www.google.com/search?q=theresa+may+popularity+chart&oq=theresa+may+popu&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0i512l2.10034j0j4&client=ms-android-sonymobile&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgrc=7bimWvKKSTzxVM

[pericles]

Feb 1, 2022 16:59:12 GMT andrew111 said:

Feb 1, 2022 13:40:38 GMT jamie said:

Boris being less popular at the 2019 election than Corbyn or May were at the 2017 election is one of those things that a lot of the data suggests (almost certainly less popular than May) yet it goes almost entirely unmentioned when discussing his popularity, including by many people who should know better.

I don't know where they have got that data from, but May's popularity absolutely plummeted during the 2017 election campaign to -34%

www.google.com/search?q=theresa+may+popularity+chart&oq=theresa+may+popu&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0i512l2.10034j0j4&client=ms-android-sonymobile&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgrc=7bimWvKKSTzxVM

Her approval also plummeted after losing her majority, so it's hard to tell from those charts where she was the day before the election (it doesn't help that the polls in 2017 were not very accurate).

[LDCaerdydd]