|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 28, 2019 20:02:54 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 3, 2019 12:02:31 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2019 20:13:53 GMT
If you accept the premise (and I'm not sure I do), this is faintly ominous for the Conservatives.  |
|
pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,681 
|
Post by pl on Nov 11, 2019 20:26:44 GMT
If you accept the premise (and I'm not sure I do), this is faintly ominous for the Conservatives. Well today’s Brexit Party announcement is worth several pp on vote share for the Conservatives - even if this makes no difference to UNS. There is no way BXP is doing that well given they have just withdrawn from many of their best seats. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 11, 2019 20:37:18 GMT
If you accept the premise (and I'm not sure I do), this is faintly ominous for the Conservatives. Well today’s Brexit Party announcement is worth several pp on vote share for the Conservatives - even if this makes no difference to UNS. There is no way BXP is doing that well given they have just withdrawn from many of their best seats. Or 2017 is the outlier:- |
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on Nov 11, 2019 20:56:15 GMT
If you accept the premise (and I'm not sure I do), this is faintly ominous for the Conservatives. m It would only be ominous if May and her campaign team were in charge. Farage could have actually have played into the Liberal Democrats' hands today at the expense of Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2019 21:01:36 GMT
2015 was the outlier because it was the only one in which the Conservatives ended up substantially over their poll rating.
2010 was the outlier because it was the only one in which two of the larger parties crossed over during the course of the campaign.
2005 was the outlier because it was the only one in which the government ended up further ahead than the polls showed at the start.
2001 was the outlier because it was the only one in which the polls accurately picked up a Liberal Democrat increase.
1997 was the outlier because it was the only one in which the Liberal Democrats polled substantially over their final poll rating.
|
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 11, 2019 21:17:17 GMT
There's a further counterargument to consider - just because something is an outlier doesn't mean it shouldn't be taken into the overall account. Built by the correct methodology, an outlier is just as valid as the rest of the results.
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Nov 11, 2019 21:20:35 GMT
Hmmm "an out liar" are we talking Johnson or Farage?  |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 11, 2019 21:25:55 GMT
If you accept the premise (and I'm not sure I do), this is faintly ominous for the Conservatives. But there's a reason why Labour, who got 41% in 2017, are back down to 28% now. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2019 21:47:20 GMT
Well today’s Brexit Party announcement is worth several pp on vote share for the Conservatives - even if this makes no difference to UNS. There is no way BXP is doing that well given they have just withdrawn from many of their best seats. Or 2017 is the outlier:- given theres only 8 graphs there and 2017 wasnt the only one with dramatic change Ill need more evidence |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Nov 23, 2019 13:25:11 GMT
I imagine there will be quite a few polls tonight for tomorrow’s Sunday’s. Labour will be hoping for a tightening up of the polls.
|
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Nov 25, 2019 16:39:20 GMT
I’ve been having a look at the polling averages across the seven polling houses that have published polls in Weeks 1, 2 and 3 of the campaign. One complication is that some of the houses made the BXP correction during week 2, and some during week 3; therefore I have: – calculated the BXP -> Con move for all houses in the week in which the BXP adjustment has been made – amended the results in Week 2 for the three houses that corrected in Week 3 to reflect that average movement BXP -> Con, thus hopefully bringing the BXP adjustment fully into Week 1 -> Week 2 In addition the Deltapoll result in week 2 (Con 47%, LDem 11%) looks like a genuine outlier, both in terms of other houses’ movements and as the Deltapoll movement Week 1 -> Week 2 entirely reversed itself in Week 2 -> Week 3. I have therefore adjusted Tories and LDems for Deltapoll Wk 2 only to align it to the other six polls that week. This leaves me with:
| Con | Lab | LDem | BXP | | Week 1 | 38.8% | 28.8% | 16.0% | 7.9% | | W1 -> W2 | +4.3% | +0.6% | -1.3% | -3.7% | | Week 2 | 43.1% | 29.4% | 14.6% | 4.2% | | W2 -> W3 | -0.5% | +0.6% | +0.5% | -0.7% | | Week 3 | 42.6% | 30.0% | 15.1% | 3.6% |
I interpret this as the following underlying movements: – Week 1: swing BXP -> Con due to BXP withdrawals and reduction in level of ‘unsure’ Leave voters; this is backed up by the ‘certain to vote’ tables – Week 1: small swing LDem -> Labour as LDem voters in Labour marginals become aware of the binary choice they face, partially offset by a similar move Lab -> LDem in the smaller number of Tory LDem targets. – Week 2: A small swing from Brexit -> Tory, and from Tory -> Lab and LDem. Based on the above: – the meme of continuing LDem slippage looks wrong (five of seven pollsters show INCREASES in LDem VI in the last week); – the meme of Tory strengthening in Week 3 is also wrong (one of the pollsters who adjusted for BXP in Week 2 showed a 1/2% Tory VI increase in Week 3; the other three showed 1 – 2% DROPS) – Labour is showing very slow but steady increases (1/2% each week) – All in all, other than the BXP withdrawal it all looks pretty sluggish… |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
|
Post by jamie on Dec 7, 2019 0:07:43 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 7, 2019 12:37:30 GMT
Well on their Twitter account the author has acknowledged Labour needs to do better with leave voters than at present to have any hope of a repeat  One thing they and others have mentioned, though - what if the pollsters have their weightings for the 2016 referendum wrong? That seems at least possible. |
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on Dec 7, 2019 12:47:40 GMT
Well on their Twitter account the author has acknowledged Labour needs to do better with leave voters than at present to have any hope of a repeat One thing they and others have mentioned, though - what if the pollsters have their weightings for the 2016 referendum wrong? That seems at least possible. I heard John Curtis talking on the BBC. He said the pollsters won't get it wrong this time, at least for the same reason as last time! Obviously there are several other reasons they will quote when they get it wrong this time 🤣 We will have to wait until 10pm on the 12th to get an idea of which pollster is right |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 7, 2019 13:02:56 GMT
Well on their Twitter account the author has acknowledged Labour needs to do better with leave voters than at present to have any hope of a repeat One thing they and others have mentioned, though - what if the pollsters have their weightings for the 2016 referendum wrong? That seems at least possible. I heard John Curtis talking on the BBC. He said the pollsters won't get it wrong this time, at least for the same reason as last time! Obviously there are several other reasons they will quote when they get it wrong this time 🤣 We will have to wait until 10pm on the 12th to get f I remember 1992, when 10pm brought us predictions of a hung parliament. I think we may have to wait somewhat longer. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 7, 2019 13:04:06 GMT
And indeed in 2015 the exit poll didn't predict an outright Tory majority?
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,804
Member is Online
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 7, 2019 13:28:01 GMT
|
|
msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910
|
Post by msc on Dec 7, 2019 13:30:08 GMT
And indeed in 2015 the exit poll didn't predict an outright Tory majority?
No, but a few results in - and Sir John's bit about them being cautious on it being a hung parliament or majority - suggested the way the wind was blowing.
Of course, the exit poll suggested a second Green seat in Norwich too!
Weirdly, the memory cheats. I was watching the election night coverage of 2015 yesterday from the Beeb and my memory was it had far more on screen declarations than usual. In fact, its less than 2005!
|
|
