Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 19, 2019 20:40:04 GMT
COVENTRY MBC; Wainbody (Con died)
Candidates:
BEAMISH, George Stuart Ronald (Brexit Party)
HEAVEN, Mattie (Conservative)
JOBBAR, Abdul (Labour)
MORSHEAD, James Frederick (Liberal Democrat)
2019: Con 1666; Lab 919; Grn 381; LD 312; UKIP 207
2018: Con 1867; Lab 1271; LD 204; Grn 182; UKIP 109
2016: Con 2018; Lab 1232; LD 209; Grn 209; TUSC 67
2015: Con 3701; Lab 2367; UKIP 738; Grn 561; LD 446; TUSC 85
2014: Con 1823; Lab 1497; UKIP 742; Grn 499; LD 227; TUSC 45
2012: Con 1540; Lab 1214; UKIP 449; Grn 210; LD 172; Soc Alt 54
2011: Con 2452; Lab 1909; LD 410; Grn 393; UKIP 379; Soc Alt 83
2010: Con 3641; Lab 2457; LD 1830; BNP 217; Ind 190; Soc Alt 75
2008: Con 2470; Lab 755; LD 468; Grn 353
2007: Con 2324; Lab 981; LD 524; Grn 358
2006: Con 2612; Lab 1013; LD 751
2004: Con 2811, 2753, 2736; Lab 1382, 1240, 1032; LD 1356
The Labour candidate has stood here in every election since 2015 and the Lib Dem in the last 2 elections.
Current Council: Lab 40; Con 12; Ind 1; 1 vacancy
EDEN DC; Penrith South (Ind died)
Candidates:
FEARON, Helen Jane (Conservative)
KNAGGS, Dave (Labour)
QUINN, Lee (Independent)
WILDE, Kerryanne (Putting Cumbria First)
2019: Ind 261, 256; Con 210; Lab 94
2015: Con 615; Ind 576; LD 302
2011: 1xInd and 1xCon unopp.
2007: 1xInd and 1xCon unopp
2003: 2 x Ind unopp
The Conservative candidate was their unsuccessful candidate in May. She is also county councillor for the Penrith West division (which I believe includes this ward) where she beat both Lee Quinn and Dave Knaggs in 2017. Knaggs stood in Penrith West ward earlier this year. The Putting Cumbria First candidate is a former UKIP candidate in a different ward, but stood for PCF earlier this year (again in a different ward).
Current Council: Con 14; LD 10; Ind 9; Lab 2; Grn 2; 1 vacancy.
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; St Andrews & Dockland (Lab died)
Candidates:
BOND, Dan (Conservative)
FUDGE, Leanne (Labour)
HENRY, Tracey Irene (Liberal Democrat)
2019: Lab 985; For Britain 267; LD 241; Grn 208; Con 143
2018: Lab 1357, 1297, 1252; Con 300, 273, 222; LD 271, 270, 200; Ind 136
The Lib Dem stood here in May and was the second Lib Dem last year. The Labour candidate is the daughter (I believe) of the deceased councillor and was a councillor in her own right for Derringham ward from 2015-2018
Current Council: Lab 30; LD 24; Con 2; 1 vacancy
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 20, 2019 6:29:32 GMT
The fact that there is no Green Party candidate this time in Coventry should help the Liberal Democrats.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 20, 2019 7:42:22 GMT
The fact that there is no Green Party candidate this time in Coventry should help the Liberal Democrats. Yes, but why are they absent? They finished third last time. Paging greenchristian. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2019 8:34:58 GMT
A large part of the Green vote (ie students) is also absent. I don't see why the absence of a Green candidate will particularly help the Lib Dems. More of their voters are likely to support Labour and in any case the Lib Dems have always been irrelevant in this ward
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 20, 2019 17:26:42 GMT
The fact that there is no Green Party candidate this time in Coventry should help the Liberal Democrats. Yes, but why are they absent? They finished third last time. Paging greenchristian . Nominations cock-up, partly caused by people being on holiday during the nominations period.
Edit: Incidentally, it's just occurred to me that a fair chunk of our non-student vote could go Tory - since this is a ward where greenbelt issues are quite important,and the Conservatives have been opposed to building on the greenbelt.
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 20, 2019 19:52:18 GMT
Any idea why there is no LD candidate in Eden? (especially as it is quite a strong region for them) Also appropriate that, after the death of the Con candidate in the Coventry seat, the new Con candidate is called Heaven  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 20, 2019 20:43:04 GMT
Any idea why there is no LD candidate in Eden? (especially as it is quite a strong region for them) Also appropriate that, after the death of the Con candidate in the Coventry seat, the new Con candidate is called Heaven In fact we have councillors elsewhere in Penrith. I suspect a local agreement with the independents, though I haven't had that confirmed. |
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Post by mattb on Aug 21, 2019 7:24:51 GMT
The council is currently run by a LD-Ind coalition, having taken over from the Tories in May. Which may or may not be relevant.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 21, 2019 7:43:43 GMT
It's also worth noting that 2015 (coinciding with GE) is the only time in the last 16+ years that there has been a LD candidate in this ward, so the absence is perhaps not THAT surprising.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 22, 2019 9:11:31 GMT
A large part of the Green vote (ie students) is also absent. I don't see why the absence of a Green candidate will particularly help the Lib Dems. More of their voters are likely to support Labour and in any case the Lib Dems have always been irrelevant in this ward Maybe you guys can manage to make the Lib Dems suddenly relevant here like in Gloucester Podsmead? |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 22, 2019 9:21:40 GMT
Much bigger ward where the Tories are *very* well entrenched, I will be astonished if the LibDems achieve much in this one. But of course, I could yet be surprised |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 23, 2019 10:01:49 GMT
Much bigger ward where the Tories are *very* well entrenched, I will be astonished if the LibDems achieve much in this one. But of course, I could yet be surprised Especially given that their local organisation is very weak. Remember that in 2018 they only fielded 8 candidates (with 18 seats up) but in May this year that dropped to just 4. The only way they're likely to make substantial progress in this by-election is if they rely almost entirely on help from outside, or if they've picked up a lot of keen new members who aren't away during the campaign period.
Having said that, the demographics are likely to be much more favourable to the Lib Dems than to the Brexit Party. Even without the students this is a highly-educated ward (at the census about a third of the population had a degree). Interestingly, I think that the Brexit Party's best hunting ground here might be amongst an ethnic minority. The ward has a sizeable Asian minority, which is mostly Sikh, and - at its height - Coventry UKIP had a surprisingly high number of Sikh members/activists. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 23, 2019 10:24:34 GMT
Much bigger ward where the Tories are *very* well entrenched, I will be astonished if the LibDems achieve much in this one. But of course, I could yet be surprised Especially given that their local organisation is very weak.
But at least we managed to get a candidate nominated  . I don't know the area very well, nor am I well-informed about the Cov LD's fortunes in recent months. I'd guess that we have increased membership, but I have no idea whether they're active or armchair. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 23, 2019 10:37:32 GMT
Draw your own conclusions.. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 23, 2019 10:59:50 GMT
Encouraging!
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2019 11:04:26 GMT
The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the LibDems are actually bothering to run a campaign this time.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 23, 2019 11:05:22 GMT
The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the LibDems are actually bothering to run a campaign this time. And that its a NIMBY campaign! |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 23, 2019 11:38:05 GMT
The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the LibDems are actually bothering to run a campaign this time. And that its a NIMBY campaign! The greenbelt issue in Coventry and surrounding areas is way less NIMBY than similar campaigns in other places because the justification for building on the greenbelt is based on extremely dodgy population projections. Basically the figures were calculated based on years where there was a large growth in student numbers, and the projection assume that the students will all be staying long-term, when in reality only a small minority do. Even Labour, who are the ones actually pushing building on the greenbelt, have admitted that the figures are bunk. Yes, there may be a small element of NIMBYISM there, since Wainbody is one of the wards where the greenbelt houses will be built, but it certainly isn't the core of the objection.
You'd be right about opposing the expansion of the University being NIMBY, though.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 23, 2019 12:39:10 GMT
And that its a NIMBY campaign! The greenbelt issue in Coventry and surrounding areas is way less NIMBY than similar campaigns in other places because the justification for building on the greenbelt is based on extremely dodgy population projections. Basically the figures were calculated based on years where there was a large growth in student numbers, and the projection assume that the students will all be staying long-term, when in reality only a small minority do. Even Labour, who are the ones actually pushing building on the greenbelt, have admitted that the figures are bunk. Yes, there may be a small element of NIMBYISM there, since Wainbody is one of the wards where the greenbelt houses will be built, but it certainly isn't the core of the objection.
You'd be right about opposing the expansion of the University being NIMBY, though.
Half the university isn't even in Coventry, with the boundary running stright through the middle of the campus. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 23, 2019 12:49:16 GMT
The greenbelt issue in Coventry and surrounding areas is way less NIMBY than similar campaigns in other places because the justification for building on the greenbelt is based on extremely dodgy population projections. Basically the figures were calculated based on years where there was a large growth in student numbers, and the projection assume that the students will all be staying long-term, when in reality only a small minority do. Even Labour, who are the ones actually pushing building on the greenbelt, have admitted that the figures are bunk. Yes, there may be a small element of NIMBYISM there, since Wainbody is one of the wards where the greenbelt houses will be built, but it certainly isn't the core of the objection.
You'd be right about opposing the expansion of the University being NIMBY, though.
Half the university isn't even in Coventry, with the boundary running stright through the middle of the campus. In fairness, most of the university is in Cov. However, I understand that quite a few students live in Warwick and Leamington and travel in. |
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. I don't know the area very well, nor am I well-informed about the Cov LD's fortunes in recent months. I'd guess that we have increased membership, but I have no idea whether they're active or armchair.
