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Post by finsobruce on Sept 6, 2019 15:53:45 GMT
From what I know of Penrith, personal votes can be quite important there. As already stated, the student absence will have skewed the Coventry result against Labour - plus the LibDems made an effort, which they don't normally do. The same was true of Hull - though a big Lab/LibDem battleground, the latter usually have other wards to prioritise and how they approach next May here will be interesting. I am led to believe that if you go into the Penrith Tea Rooms, they won't serve you the finest wines known to humanity. I mean to post something even if it must be trollery.... |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 15:56:50 GMT
Part of the problem is that there is a Lib Dem way of winning any ward but unless there is someone local who knows how to do it, and the organisational ability and time to develop the local Party, then people will flap around and get nowhere. It works in wards of any size but the bigger the ward the more people need to be involved. It is a lot of effort and may need more than one heave. It also helps a lot if the other Parties don't know what they are doing (surprisingly often the case).
Look what happened in May in Knottingley (Wakefield) to see what could happen in a similar size ward to Coventry if the right person moves into a previously desolate area for the Lib Dems
The Coventry Lib Dems have struggled for years to have both the numbers and the organisation to get close to a full slate of local election candidates, which (whilst it's a separate issue) is something of an indicator of what the problem has been. I've always had the impression that they do have people who understand how to run an effective campaign, but that since the coalition they've struggled to find enough volunteers to run one on the necessary scale. It is not the campaign that wins, but what you do outside the campaign.
But of course I would die in a ditch before revealing anything more specific!
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 16:51:18 GMT
The Coventry Lib Dems have struggled for years to have both the numbers and the organisation to get close to a full slate of local election candidates, which (whilst it's a separate issue) is something of an indicator of what the problem has been. I've always had the impression that they do have people who understand how to run an effective campaign, but that since the coalition they've struggled to find enough volunteers to run one on the necessary scale. It is not the campaign that wins, but what you do outside the campaign.
But of course I would die in a ditch before revealing anything more specific!
Assuming that by "the campaign" you mean "the short campaign" then I already know most of the specifics. It's hardly a massive secret that's unknown outside of Lib Dem ranks. |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 6, 2019 18:08:17 GMT
I have been informed that the Warwick campus ballot box for the Wainbody byelection had five votes in it.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 6, 2019 18:10:42 GMT
I have been informed that the Warwick campus ballot box for the Wainbody byelection had five votes in it. What was the electorate? |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 19:49:42 GMT
I have been informed that the Warwick campus ballot box for the Wainbody byelection had five votes in it. What was the electorate? I don't have any current figures for this ward. The range of elector numbers means it's unlikely to have been much above 500. The ward's total electorate in May was 10,129, but if I do have any box breakdowns for Wainbody's electorate then I've misfiled them.
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 7, 2019 12:21:27 GMT
Issue with the coding on the swing hence the delay but sorted now. Headline figures are as follows: Wainbody, Coventry: 3.6% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat since 2019, 7.1% since 2018. Conservative hold. Penrith South, Eden: Swing not meaningful. Conservative gain from Independent. St Andrews and Docklands, Kingston-upon-Hull: 19.3% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrat since 2019, 25.4% since 2018. Labour hold. More info including council numbers and vote increases/decreases etc below. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b25c1ktdnWAQX0uxRlRZlxlSx9FnQXk5vMuLOuDn-WA/edit?usp=sharing |
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