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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 5, 2019 23:08:53 GMT
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL St Andrews and Dockland
FUDGE, Leanne (Labour) 837
HENRY, Tracey Irene (Liberal Democrat) 805
BOND, Dan (Conservative) 193
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 5, 2019 23:11:38 GMT
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL St Andrews and Dockland FUDGE, Leanne (Labour) 837 HENRY, Tracey Irene (Liberal Democrat) 805 BOND, Dan (Conservative) 193 Oof. |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 5, 2019 23:11:40 GMT
Wainbody result: C 1560 LD 634 Lab 544 Brexit 193 Lib Dems second? In Coventry? Not too familiar with the area, is that expected? It's the best they could have hoped for. The last time they came second in any Coventry ward was Upper Stoke, 2012, when they were defending the seat. The last time they polled over 400 in any Coventry ward was 2016 - which was the last election in which Russell Field (the councillor they lost in 2012) stood in Upper Stoke.
Based on this result, I'll eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if Wainbody isn't their main target ward in May's locals.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 5, 2019 23:14:33 GMT
Lib Dems second? In Coventry? Not too familiar with the area, is that expected? The accounts I saw suggested that the Lib Dems and Tories were making a bit of an effort on the campaign trail. The May result was C 1666 Lab 919 Grn 381 LD 312 UKIP 207. This will have included around 300 or 400 votes from the Warwick University campus which is almost certainly more left-wing than the rest of the ward. So, no students and no Green, which makes the result rather less remarkable in a very safe Tory ward. |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 5, 2019 23:14:52 GMT
Labour: 837 45.6% (-20.2)
LDM: 805 43.9% (+30.7)
CON: 193 10.5% (-4.1)
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 5, 2019 23:16:59 GMT
Labour: 837 45.6% (-20.2) LDM: 805 43.9% (+30.7) CON: 193 10.5% (-4.1) That result is a bit more remarkable |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 5, 2019 23:19:55 GMT
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL St Andrews and Dockland FUDGE, Leanne (Labour) 837 HENRY, Tracey Irene (Liberal Democrat) 805 BOND, Dan (Conservative) 193 What a shame. So close. Good night for Labour!!!! Corbyn going down a storm with the public. Resign Boris. Advise the Queen to invite him. Let him go for the extension and mire his party with it. Then GE and the LDs replace Labour and we win with a majority. RESULT!!!!! |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 5, 2019 23:22:05 GMT
Hull has been the site of strong LibDem local performances before, They controlled the council from 2007-2011, and are effectively the only other party as there are only 2 Tory councillors
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 5, 2019 23:28:07 GMT
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL St Andrews and Dockland FUDGE, Leanne (Labour) 837 HENRY, Tracey Irene (Liberal Democrat) 805 BOND, Dan (Conservative) 193 What a shame. So close. Good night for Labour!!!! Corbyn going down a storm with the public. Resign Boris. Advise the Queen to invite him. Let him go for the extension and mire his party with it. Then GE and the LDs replace Labour and we win with a majority. RESULT!!!!! Swaing: Lab to Con +8% |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 5, 2019 23:33:16 GMT
What a shame. So close. Good night for Labour!!!! Corbyn going down a storm with the public. Resign Boris. Advise the Queen to invite him. Let him go for the extension and mire his party with it. Then GE and the LDs replace Labour and we win with a majority. RESULT!!!!! Swaing: Lab to Con +8% Is that a dialect word? |
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 6, 2019 0:12:29 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 6, 2019 0:14:37 GMT
The accounts I saw suggested that the Lib Dems and Tories were making a bit of an effort on the campaign trail. The May result was C 1666 Lab 919 Grn 381 LD 312 UKIP 207. This will have included around 300 or 400 votes from the Warwick University campus which is almost certainly more left-wing than the rest of the ward. So, no students and no Green, which makes the result rather less remarkable in a very safe Tory ward. Would any of the Master's students still be around? I don't know if the postgraduate halls are in the ward or if Warwick postgraduate accommodation runs September to September but there are universities where there are (just) still students living on campus in the same place as last year. |
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mike
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Post by mike on Sept 6, 2019 0:29:08 GMT
I don't know about Masters but the foreign students will be there now and the accommodations is on the campus. Warwick has plenty of cute Asian students but most won't be eligible to vote or be familiar with it in the case of the Chinese students.
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 1:48:51 GMT
So, no students and no Green, which makes the result rather less remarkable in a very safe Tory ward. Would any of the Master's students still be around? I don't know if the postgraduate halls are in the ward or if Warwick postgraduate accommodation runs September to September but there are universities where there are (just) still students living on campus in the same place as last year. I know that the main postgrad halls when I was there (1996-1999) are in the Coventry half, but I don't know if they remain postgrad halls or when the postgrad accommodation runs from/to.
There was a campus polling station, which had voter numbers PG-1 through to PG-464/2. But obviously almost all of those would be students from last year's register.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 6:08:19 GMT
Would any of the Master's students still be around? I don't know if the postgraduate halls are in the ward or if Warwick postgraduate accommodation runs September to September but there are universities where there are (just) still students living on campus in the same place as last year. I know that the main postgrad halls when I was there (1996-1999) are in the Coventry half, but I don't know if they remain postgrad halls or when the postgrad accommodation runs from/to.
There was a campus polling station, which had voter numbers PG-1 through to PG-464/2. But obviously almost all of those would be students from last year's register.
Masters students would be on last years register. Assuming they are on the usual UK 12 month vocational courses, they will have submitted dissertations in August and be waiting for results. However, in my experience (Leeds) the ones in halls will be overwhelmingly overseas students and the British ones will have found shared houses. No idea where in relation to this ward. Most will probably not be on the register anyway. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2019 6:26:34 GMT
The accounts I saw suggested that the Lib Dems and Tories were making a bit of an effort on the campaign trail. The May result was C 1666 Lab 919 Grn 381 LD 312 UKIP 207. This will have included around 300 or 400 votes from the Warwick University campus which is almost certainly more left-wing than the rest of the ward. So, no students and no Green, which makes the result rather less remarkable in a very safe Tory ward. Its not a ‘very safe’ ward when the students are there- you got quite close in 2012 and 2014. As Conservative wards go, I imagine it’s nit that Brexity, which makes an interesting place to have an election at the moment, |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2019 6:30:36 GMT
A decent week for the Conservatives in those 3 elections. A good week for the Lib Dem’s. Relief for Labour.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 6:37:29 GMT
Anyway, for what it is worth, the three by-elections together do suggest that the Tory vote has hardened while the Labour vote remains very soft.
This was also the case when May called her GE in 2017. In that election the first thing that happened was that Tory VI shot up at the expense of UKIP, and DK went back to Labour. Then Labour squeezed other Parties and also won some Tory votes over as May systematically upset key voters.
This time the initial effect may be the same. However there is the other effect which is that Jonhson makes Theresa May look like a paeon of competence and truthfulness. He is "splaffing" money about like confetti and middle class Tory voters must know in their hearts that this is populist rubbish in the face of the likely short to medium term consequences of a no deal Brexit.
These voters do have a credible place to go that is not Corbyn this time, in the Lib Dems. The latest polls suggest around 10% of 2017 Tory voting intention has already gone Lib Dem, and there is still 25% of Remainers in the current Tory VI. These are people who must have some residual grain of common sense. 5 years of Boris could leave our country in ruins with or without Brexit. "Anyone but Boris" has to be the rallying cry.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2019 6:53:24 GMT
Anyway, for what it is worth, the three by-elections together do suggest that the Tory vote has hardened while the Labour vote remains very soft. This was also the case when May called her GE in 2017. In that election the first thing that happened was that Tory VI shot up at the expense of UKIP, and DK went back to Labour. Then Labour squeezed other Parties and also won some Tory votes over as May systematically upset key voters. This time the initial effect may be the same. However there is the other effect which is that Jonhson makes Theresa May look like a paeon of competence and truthfulness. He is "splaffing" money about like confetti and middle class Tory voters must know in their hearts that this is populist rubbish in the face of the likely short to medium term consequences of a no deal Brexit. These voters do have a credible place to go that is not Corbyn this time, in the Lib Dems. The latest polls suggest around 10% of 2017 Tory voting intention has already gone Lib Dem, and there is still 25% of Remainers in the current Tory VI. These are people who must have some residual grain of common sense. 5 years of Boris could leave our country in ruins with or without Brexit. "Anyone but Boris" has to be the rallying cry. These voters do have a place to go, but knowing some of them, a lot of those that I know respect the referendum result so the Lib Dem bollocks to brexit is not going down that well and Swinson will have to work quite hard to persuade them. |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 6, 2019 6:55:35 GMT
Would any of the Master's students still be around? I don't know if the postgraduate halls are in the ward or if Warwick postgraduate accommodation runs September to September but there are universities where there are (just) still students living on campus in the same place as last year. I know that the main postgrad halls when I was there (1996-1999) are in the Coventry half, but I don't know if they remain postgrad halls or when the postgrad accommodation runs from/to. There was a campus polling station, which had voter numbers PG-1 through to PG-464/2. But obviously almost all of those would be students from last year's register.
When I ran that polling station in 2002 the voter numbers went up to (I think) 4977. That's what Individual Electoral Registration has done. |
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