Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 6, 2019 7:54:00 GMT
All three councils voted to LEAVE in 2016. Change on last time: Con +3%, Lab -7%, Lib Dem +18%, UKIP -4%, Green -10%, Ind -1%, Local Ind +0%, Others -1%. REMAIN / LEAVE split REMAIN 27.43% (+8.05%), LEAVE 41.33% (-0.97%), Undecided 31.24% (-7.08%).
Political swing: 5% from Lab to Con, 7.5% from Con to Lib Dem, 12.5% from Lab to Lib Dem
Referendum Swing: 4.51% from LEAVE to REMAIN
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 7:55:27 GMT
I know that the main postgrad halls when I was there (1996-1999) are in the Coventry half, but I don't know if they remain postgrad halls or when the postgrad accommodation runs from/to. There was a campus polling station, which had voter numbers PG-1 through to PG-464/2. But obviously almost all of those would be students from last year's register.
When I ran that polling station in 2002 the voter numbers went up to (I think) 4977. That's what Individual Electoral Registration has done. Yes, i looked at the halls in Huddersfield in the EU election and less than one in five residents were on the register. Of course quite a few would be overseas students and others registered at parental homes, but i would say the "student vote" in University seats is to a large extent people who stay on as graduates and people who work for the University and for spin out companies. In Leeds those people often live in inner suburbs like Chapelallerton rather than in the immediate vicinity of the university. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2019 8:00:12 GMT
All three councils voted to LEAVE in 2016. Change on last time: Con +3%, Lab -7%, Lib Dem +18%, UKIP -4%, Green -10%, Ind -1%, Local Ind +0%, Others -1%. REMAIN / LEAVE split REMAIN 27.43% (+8.05%), LEAVE 41.33% (-0.97%), Undecided 31.24% (-7.08%). Political swing: 5% from Lab to Con, 7.5% from Con to Lib Dem, 12.5% from Lab to Lib Dem Referendum Swing: 4.51% from LEAVE to REMAINoh FFS  |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 8:01:22 GMT
All three councils voted to LEAVE in 2016. Change on last time: Con +3%, Lab -7%, Lib Dem +18%, UKIP -4%, Green -10%, Ind -1%, Local Ind +0%, Others -1%. REMAIN / LEAVE split REMAIN 27.43% (+8.05%), LEAVE 41.33% (-0.97%), Undecided 31.24% (-7.08%). Political swing: 5% from Lab to Con, 7.5% from Con to Lib Dem, 12.5% from Lab to Lib Dem Referendum Swing: 4.51% from LEAVE to REMAIN As someone who organises Lib Dem campaigns in another part of Yorkshire, it is very unlikely that Brexit was mentioned by either side in Hull. The no hope Tories may have mentioned it if they campaigned at all, but their voters are most likely to have stayed at home or voted Lib Dem anyway to stop Labour. That 40% Lib Dem vote will be at least 50% Leavers. |
|
|
|
Post by mrpastelito on Sept 6, 2019 8:17:48 GMT
Anyway, for what it is worth, the three by-elections together do suggest that the Tory vote has hardened while the Labour vote remains very soft. This was also the case when May called her GE in 2017. In that election the first thing that happened was that Tory VI shot up at the expense of UKIP, and DK went back to Labour. Then Labour squeezed other Parties and also won some Tory votes over as May systematically upset key voters. This time the initial effect may be the same. However there is the other effect which is that Jonhson makes Theresa May look like a paeon of competence and truthfulness. He is "splaffing" money about like confetti and middle class Tory voters must know in their hearts that this is populist rubbish in the face of the likely short to medium term consequences of a no deal Brexit. These voters do have a credible place to go that is not Corbyn this time, in the Lib Dems. The latest polls suggest around 10% of 2017 Tory voting intention has already gone Lib Dem, and there is still 25% of Remainers in the current Tory VI. These are people who must have some residual grain of common sense. 5 years of Boris could leave our country in ruins with or without Brexit. "Anyone but Boris" has to be the rallying cry. I disagree. Most people want to be told a good story, and BoJo is a better storyteller than May. And as andrewp says, those people would have a place to go if the LDs hadn't resolved to die for Brussels. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Sept 6, 2019 8:22:57 GMT
All three councils voted to LEAVE in 2016. Change on last time: Con +3%, Lab -7%, Lib Dem +18%, UKIP -4%, Green -10%, Ind -1%, Local Ind +0%, Others -1%. REMAIN / LEAVE split REMAIN 27.43% (+8.05%), LEAVE 41.33% (-0.97%), Undecided 31.24% (-7.08%). Political swing: 5% from Lab to Con, 7.5% from Con to Lib Dem, 12.5% from Lab to Lib Dem Referendum Swing: 4.51% from LEAVE to REMAINoh FFS Get used to it - if we have a Brexit general election this is exactly the kind of bullshit analysis every little result will be subjected to by both sides. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 8:35:58 GMT
Anyway, for what it is worth, the three by-elections together do suggest that the Tory vote has hardened while the Labour vote remains very soft. This was also the case when May called her GE in 2017. In that election the first thing that happened was that Tory VI shot up at the expense of UKIP, and DK went back to Labour. Then Labour squeezed other Parties and also won some Tory votes over as May systematically upset key voters. This time the initial effect may be the same. However there is the other effect which is that Jonhson makes Theresa May look like a paeon of competence and truthfulness. He is "splaffing" money about like confetti and middle class Tory voters must know in their hearts that this is populist rubbish in the face of the likely short to medium term consequences of a no deal Brexit. These voters do have a credible place to go that is not Corbyn this time, in the Lib Dems. The latest polls suggest around 10% of 2017 Tory voting intention has already gone Lib Dem, and there is still 25% of Remainers in the current Tory VI. These are people who must have some residual grain of common sense. 5 years of Boris could leave our country in ruins with or without Brexit. "Anyone but Boris" has to be the rallying cry. I disagree. Most people want to be told a good story, and BoJo is a better storyteller than May. And as andrewp says, those people would have a place to go if the LDs hadn't resolved to die for Brussels. People will make their bed and then have to lie on it. If they believe in style and bravado over substance and common sense they should not complain when it all goes wrong (although they will) |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 9:18:08 GMT
I know that the main postgrad halls when I was there (1996-1999) are in the Coventry half, but I don't know if they remain postgrad halls or when the postgrad accommodation runs from/to.
There was a campus polling station, which had voter numbers PG-1 through to PG-464/2. But obviously almost all of those would be students from last year's register.
Masters students would be on last years register. Assuming they are on the usual UK 12 month vocational courses, they will have submitted dissertations in August and be waiting for results. However, in my experience (Leeds) the ones in halls will be overwhelmingly overseas students and the British ones will have found shared houses. No idea where in relation to this ward. Most will probably not be on the register anyway. There's very little off-campus student accommodation in this ward. There's some in Cannon Park (the area right by the University), but the vast majority is in other wards. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 6, 2019 10:03:00 GMT
Anyway, for what it is worth, the three by-elections together do suggest that the Tory vote has hardened while the Labour vote remains very soft. to die for Brussels. I like the historical reference there. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2019 10:51:42 GMT
A decent week for the Conservatives in those 3 elections. A good week for the Lib Dem’s. Relief for Labour. From what I know of Penrith, personal votes can be quite important there. As already stated, the student absence will have skewed the Coventry result against Labour - plus the LibDems made an effort, which they don't normally do. The same was true of Hull - though a big Lab/LibDem battleground, the latter usually have other wards to prioritise and how they approach next May here will be interesting. |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 6, 2019 10:55:04 GMT
A decent week for the Conservatives in those 3 elections. A good week for the Lib Dem’s. Relief for Labour. From what I know of Penrith, personal votes can be quite important there. Twitter was hinting that there were local aspects to the result, though exactly what was not clear.
It's about time we made something of an effort in Cov, it's been a bit of a black hole for us in recent years, and it doesn't look great to have 0 councillors in a big city like that.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 11:20:46 GMT
I like the historical reference there. I would die (in a ditch) for Brussels sprouts, personally |
|
|
|
Post by mrpastelito on Sept 6, 2019 11:26:32 GMT
I disagree. Most people want to be told a good story, and BoJo is a better storyteller than May. And as andrewp says, those people would have a place to go if the LDs hadn't resolved to die for Brussels. People will make their bed and then have to lie on it. If they believe in style and bravado over substance and common sense they should not complain when it all goes wrong (although they will)
Yes, I absolutely agree with all you're saying. Don't worry though, you'll always have the comfort of feeling morally superior.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Sept 6, 2019 12:19:16 GMT
I know that the main postgrad halls when I was there (1996-1999) are in the Coventry half, but I don't know if they remain postgrad halls or when the postgrad accommodation runs from/to. There was a campus polling station, which had voter numbers PG-1 through to PG-464/2. But obviously almost all of those would be students from last year's register. Masters students would be on last years register. Assuming they are on the usual UK 12 month vocational courses, they will have submitted dissertations in August and be waiting for results. However, in my experience (Leeds) the ones in halls will be overwhelmingly overseas students and the British ones will have found shared houses. No idea where in relation to this ward. Most will probably not be on the register anyway. Warwick postgraduate accommodation has a range from 40 to 50 weeks so I presume the last will be moving out today or tomorrow: warwick.ac.uk/services/accommodation/studentaccommodation/postgraduate/pgresidences/(During my MA at Kent the postgraduate accommodation was a full calendar year less four days. At QMUL the base accommodation offer ran to the end of the summer term but with the option for extensions over the summer vacation as needed.) |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 14:45:48 GMT
From what I know of Penrith, personal votes can be quite important there. Twitter was hinting that there were local aspects to the result, though exactly what was not clear.
It's about time we made something of an effort in Cov, it's been a bit of a black hole for us in recent years, and it doesn't look great to have 0 councillors in a big city like that.
The by-election result means you've gone from no chance of a win in May to at least an outside chance of a win. But it's worth noting that Cov has always been difficult for third parties. Big wards plus larger than average tribal votes for the big two (at least historically) makes it more difficult to get a foot in the door than in the vast majority of councils, and I don't think there's been a third party that's managed to win more than one ward in the city since the 70s local government reforms (which is as far back as I have access to any records). |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 6, 2019 14:49:14 GMT
Twitter was hinting that there were local aspects to the result, though exactly what was not clear.
It's about time we made something of an effort in Cov, it's been a bit of a black hole for us in recent years, and it doesn't look great to have 0 councillors in a big city like that.
The by-election result means you've gone from no chance of a win in May to at least an outside chance of a win. But it's worth noting that Cov has always been difficult for third parties. Big wards plus larger than average tribal votes for the big two (at least historically) makes it more difficult to get a foot in the door than in the vast majority of councils, and I don't think there's been a third party that's managed to win more than one ward in the city since the 70s local government reforms (which is as far back as I have access to any records). I agree with you to some extent, but we do manage to get seats in Birmingham despite large wards, so it's not impossible. I think we just have to plug away and target, just as we do elsewhere, and interest will develop from there. |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 14:58:00 GMT
The by-election result means you've gone from no chance of a win in May to at least an outside chance of a win. But it's worth noting that Cov has always been difficult for third parties. Big wards plus larger than average tribal votes for the big two (at least historically) makes it more difficult to get a foot in the door than in the vast majority of councils, and I don't think there's been a third party that's managed to win more than one ward in the city since the 70s local government reforms (which is as far back as I have access to any records). I agree with you to some extent, but we do manage to get seats in Birmingham despite large wards, so it's not impossible. I think we just have to plug away and target, just as we do elsewhere, and interest will develop from there. Yeah, pretty much. Though since the Brummie boundary changes most of your wards are smaller than any of ours. I think there's a good chance at least one of our two parties will break through here next May, and some chance that both of us will.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 15:06:26 GMT
Twitter was hinting that there were local aspects to the result, though exactly what was not clear.
It's about time we made something of an effort in Cov, it's been a bit of a black hole for us in recent years, and it doesn't look great to have 0 councillors in a big city like that.
The by-election result means you've gone from no chance of a win in May to at least an outside chance of a win. But it's worth noting that Cov has always been difficult for third parties. Big wards plus larger than average tribal votes for the big two (at least historically) makes it more difficult to get a foot in the door than in the vast majority of councils, and I don't think there's been a third party that's managed to win more than one ward in the city since the 70s local government reforms (which is as far back as I have access to any records). Part of the problem is that there is a Lib Dem way of winning any ward but unless there is someone local who knows how to do it, and the organisational ability and time to develop the local Party, then people will flap around and get nowhere. It works in wards of any size but the bigger the ward the more people need to be involved. It is a lot of effort and may need more than one heave. It also helps a lot if the other Parties don't know what they are doing (surprisingly often the case).
Look what happened in May in Knottingley (Wakefield) to see what could happen in a similar size ward to Coventry if the right person moves into a previously desolate area for the Lib Dems
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 6, 2019 15:20:16 GMT
A decent week for the Conservatives in those 3 elections. A good week for the Lib Dem’s. Relief for Labour. From what I know of Penrith, personal votes can be quite important there. As already stated, the student absence will have skewed the Coventry result against Labour - plus the LibDems made an effort, which they don't normally do. The same was true of Hull - though a big Lab/LibDem battleground, the latter usually have other wards to prioritise and how they approach next May here will be interesting. I am led to believe that if you go into the Penrith Tea Rooms, they won't serve you the finest wines known to humanity. |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Sept 6, 2019 15:25:20 GMT
The by-election result means you've gone from no chance of a win in May to at least an outside chance of a win. But it's worth noting that Cov has always been difficult for third parties. Big wards plus larger than average tribal votes for the big two (at least historically) makes it more difficult to get a foot in the door than in the vast majority of councils, and I don't think there's been a third party that's managed to win more than one ward in the city since the 70s local government reforms (which is as far back as I have access to any records). Part of the problem is that there is a Lib Dem way of winning any ward but unless there is someone local who knows how to do it, and the organisational ability and time to develop the local Party, then people will flap around and get nowhere. It works in wards of any size but the bigger the ward the more people need to be involved. It is a lot of effort and may need more than one heave. It also helps a lot if the other Parties don't know what they are doing (surprisingly often the case).
Look what happened in May in Knottingley (Wakefield) to see what could happen in a similar size ward to Coventry if the right person moves into a previously desolate area for the Lib Dems
The Coventry Lib Dems have struggled for years to have both the numbers and the organisation to get close to a full slate of local election candidates, which (whilst it's a separate issue) is something of an indicator of what the problem has been. I've always had the impression that they do have people who understand how to run an effective campaign, but that since the coalition they've struggled to find enough volunteers to run one on the necessary scale. |
|
