Prediction Competition - November 2018

[middleenglander]

It now looks as though there are 21 by-elections during the 5 Thursdays of November:
* 3 on 01 November
* 4 on 08 November
* 4 on 15 November
* 4 on 22 November
* 6 on 29 November

6 of the by-elections are for District Councils
- 2 where the seat will again be contested in May, 2 with ward elections in May and 2 where there were last all out elections in 2016
2 are in Unitary Authorities where the seat will again be contested in May
3 are in Metropolitan Authorities where there will be ward elections in May
5 are for London Boroughs where the last elections were in May this year
5 are for County Councils last elected in 2017

Conservatives defend 8 seats, 4 where the previous Councillor has died and 4 resigned
Labour also defend 8 seats, with 1 sitting as an Independent, 1 following a death and 7 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats, 1 after a death and 3 a resignation
Localists defend 1 seat following a death

With nominations available for all 21 elections:
Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats contest all 21 seats, Green 13, UKIP 5 and Independent 4
along with 2 Harlow Alliance, 1 National Flood Protection, 1 Stratford First and 1 Women's Equality
- 90 candidates for the 21 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

There are no Scottish elections during November.

[yellowperil]

Oct 29, 2018 0:56:31 GMT middleenglander said:

There are no Scottish elections during November.

phew!

[peterl]

I haven't had very good luck with this in the past but with a new month starting I'm going to give it another try.

KIRKLEES MBC Denby Dale

Lab 46%
Con 44%
Green 6%
LD 4%

NEWHAM LBC Boleyn

Lab 72%
Con 17%
Green 8%
LD 3%

SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE Dodington

LD 43%
Con 35%
Lab 22%

[Deleted]

KIRKLEES MBC Denby Dale

Lab 50%
Con 40%
Green 5%
LD 5%

NEWHAM LBC Boleyn

Lab 60%
Con 25%
Green 10%
LD 5%

SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE Dodington

LD 40%
Con 35%
Lab 25%

[hempie]

Kirklees,Denby Dale: Lab 46, Con 42, LD 8, Green 4
Newham, Boleyn: Lab 69, Con 19, Green 7, LD 5
South Gloucestershire, Dodington: LD 46, Con 36, Lab 18

[Deleted]

Denby Dale (Kirklees): Lab 48 Con 44 Grn 4 LD 4
Boleyn (Newham): Lab 71 Con 19 Grn 6 LD 4
Dodington (South Gloucestershire): LD 47 Con 38 Lab 15

[Tony Otim]

Kirklees: Con 45.4; Lab 45.2; LD 6.0; Grn 3.4
Newham: Lab 71.8; Con 13.6; Grn 8.9; LD 5.7
South Glos: LD 52.8; Con 31.8; Lab 15.4

[Robert Waller]

Kirklees,Denby Dale: Lab 42, Con 43, LD 12, Green 3
Newham, Boleyn: Lab 73, Con 12, Green 6, LD 9
South Gloucestershire, Dodington: LD 53, Con 30, Lab 17

[andrewp]

Kirklees Denby Dale Con 46, Lab 42, Lib Dem 8, Green 4
New ham, Boleyn Lab 70, Con 14, Lib Dem 10, Green 6
South Gloucestershire, Dodington Lib Dem 56, Con 30, Lab 14

[greenhert]

Kirklees MBC, Denby Dale: Labour 46, Conservative 44, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 4.
Newham MBC, Boleyn: Labour 72, Conservative 15, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 5.
South Gloucestershire UA,Dodington: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 36, Labour 14.

[ricmk]

Kirklees: Lab 45, Con 40, LD 12, Green 3
Newham: Lab 70, Con 15, LD 8, Green 7
South Gloucs: LD 50, Con 35, Lab 15

[robbienicoll]

Denby Dale, Kirklees: Con 44, Lab 45, LD 7, Green 4
Boleyn, Newham: Con 15, Lab 70, LD 5, Green 10
Dodington, South Gloucestershire: Con 39, Lab 13, LD 48

[Davıd Boothroyd]

KIRKLEES Denby Dale: C 47, Lab 42, L Dem 6, GP 5
NEWHAM Boleyn: Lab 71, C 15, GP 8, L Dem 6
SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE Dodington: L Dem 56, C 29, Lab 15

[yellowperil]

Kirklees, Denby Dale: Con 44, Lab 46, LD 6, Green 4
Newham, Boleyn: Con 15, Lab 72, LD 5, Green 8
South Glos, Dodington: Con 35, Lab 11, LD 54

[Right Leaning]

Kirklees Denby Dale C 44, Lab 41, LD 10, Gn 5
Newham, Boleyn Lab 70, C 17, Lib Dem 8, Gn 5
South Gloucestershire, Dodington LD 55, C 33, Lab 12

[Adam in Stroud]

Some very high scores being predicted for the LDs in South Glos. I haven't been involved in the campaigning but I hope people are not being overoptimistic (from my POV) here - the constituency did after all elect a Tory and gave him an increased majority in 2017, and Andrew tells us the Conservatives have been making the most of our candidates personal history.

[yellowperil]

Nov 1, 2018 7:41:46 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Some very high scores being predicted for the LDs in South Glos. I haven't been involved in the campaigning but I hope people are not being overoptimistic (from my POV) here - the constituency did after all elect a Tory and gave him an increased majority in 2017, and Andrew tells us the Conservatives have been making the most of our candidates personal history.

That aspect was one of my main grounds for hope as that sort of negative campaigning is rarely effective and often counter-productive, though I am worried that the campaigning strength of the local party might have been damaged in the two GE campaigns- we will see soon enough.

[olympian95]

Kirklees: Con 45, Lab 42, Green 9, LD 4

South Glos: LD 49, Con 38, Lab 13

Newham: Lab 67, Con 18, LD 9, Green 6

[carlton43]

This could well result in Lab 1 (a certainty) and Con 2.

[Deleted]

Nov 1, 2018 8:55:20 GMT carlton43 said:

This could well result in Lab 1 (a certainty) and Con 2.

or Lab 2 Lib Dem 1 could go either way