Prediction Competition - November 2018

[robbienicoll]

East Retford West, Bassetlaw: Con 44, Lab 48, LD 8
Canterbury North, Kent: Con 49, Lab 26, LD 14, Green 4, UKIP 3, Ind 4
Grove and Wantage, Oxfordshire: Con 34, Lab 11, LD 50, Green 5
Dursley, Stroud: Con 30, Lab 44, LD 20, Green 6

[yellowperil]

Bassetlaw, East Retford: Con 42, Lab 46. LD 12
Kent, Canterbury North: Con 47, Lab 13. LD 28, Green 4, UKIP 3, Ind 5
Oxon, Grove & Wantage: Con 33, Lab 10, LD 50, Green 7
Stroud, Dursley: Con 29, Lab 40, LD 25, Green 6

[Right Leaning]

Bassetlaw, East Retford: C 45, Lab 44, LD 11
Kent, Canterbury North: C 51, Lab 13, LD 24, Gn 3, UKIP 5, Ind 4
Oxon, Grove & Wantage: C 36, Lab 12, LD 48, Green 4
Stroud, Dursley: C 35, Lab 38 LD 23, Gn 4[/quote]

[olympian95]

Bassetlaw: Con 46, Lab 43, LD 11

Oxon: LD 49, Con 37, Lab 10, Green 4

Kent: Con 51, Lab 26, LD 16, UKIP 5, Green 2

Stroud: Lab 43, Con 41, LD 10, Green 6

[ricmk]

I need to make up some ground so will back an upset or two - disqualification for non-attendance sounds a tricky defence to me:

East Retford: Con 50 Lab 40 LD 10
Kent: Con 45 Lab 18 LD 25 ind 6 Green 3 UKIP 3
Oxfordshire: LD 48 Con 35 Lab 13 Grn 4
Stroud: Lab 45 Con 40 LD 13 Green 2

[andrewp]

Bassetlaw, East Retford W Lab 48, Con 42, LD 10
Kent, Canterbury North Con 46, Lib Dem 25, Lab 17, Ind 4, Green 4, UKIP 4
Oxfordshire, Grove and Wantage. Lib Dem 49, Con 35, Lab 11, Green 5
Stroud, Dursley Lab 44, Con 31, Lib Dem 19, Green 6

[hempie]

Bassetlaw, East Retford West: Lab 47, Con 45, LD 8
Kent, Canterbury North: Con 46, Lab 28, LD 15, UKIP 5, Green 3, Ind 3
Oxfordshire, Grove and Wantage: LD 51, Con 31, Lab 13, Green 5
Stroud, Dursley: Lab 47, Con 29, LD 20, Green 4

[Tony Otim]

I was tempted to go for 3 Conservative gains this purely on the basis that every time I've backed them recently they've failed 😉

[middleenglander]

14 entries this week with europeanlefty getting 1 additional fault for adding to only 99% in Kent. Olympian95 has no prediction for the Independent also in Kent but this does not incur any additional faults.

Bassetlaw, East Retford West: 11 Labour hold, olympian95, ricmk & Right Leaning Conservative gain
Kent, Canterbury North: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 18% (hempie over Labour) to 45% (priceofdawn over Liberal Democrat)
Oxfordshire, Grove & Wantage: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, majority over Conservative from 7% (peterl) to 20% (hempie)
Stroud, Dursley: 100% Labour hold, majority from 2% (olympian95 over Conservative) to 18% (hempie over Conservative)

[middleenglander]

Week 3:

Authority	Weeks 1 & 2	Bassetlaw	Kent	Oxfordshire	Stroud	Week 3	Week 3	Weeks 1 - 3	Weeks 1 - 3
Ward	faults	East Retford   West	Canterbury    North	Grove & Wantage	Dursley	faults	position	faults	position
andrewp	112.7	17.0	10.7	2.9	30.8	61.4	1st	174.1	2nd
David Boothroyd	126.1	15.1	32.7	8.1	19.0	74.9	3rd	201.0	7th
europeanlefty	111.1	13.0	25.4+1	12.9	40.8	93.0	12th	204.2	8th
greenrobinhood	100.8	19.0	18.1	8.9	36.8	82.8	5th	183.6	3rd
hempie	107.2	23.0	24.7	10.1	31.0	88.7	9th	196.0	6th
Olympian95	137.5	25.0+10	30.7	4.1	14.9	84.6	7th	222.1	13th
peterl	106.6	15.0	22.4	10.8	52.8	101.0	13th	207.6	10th
priceofdawn	163.2	9.9	38.4	27.9	50.8	127.0	14th	290.3	14th
ricmk	141.1	33.0+10	10.5	3.3	17.1	73.9	2nd	215.0	11th
Right Leaning	115.1	23.0+10	20.7	1.3	37.0	92.0	11th	207.1	9th
robbienicoll	105.9	21.0	24.2	4.9	32.8	82.9	6th	188.8	4th
Robert Waller	111.6	13.1	21.7	5.3	39.0	79.1	4th	190.7	5th
Tony Otim	125.5	15.2	17.6	10.3	48.2	91.3	10th	216.8	12th
Yellow Peril	81.0	17.0	18.5	8.9	42.8	87.2	8th	168.2	1st
Total faults	1,645.4	258.7+30	316.3+1	119.7	494.1	1,219.8		2,865.3

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are a further 4 by-election next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Congratulations again to Andrew for taking the week yet again and for staying there just poised to take over the lead at the right time...but watch over your shoulder at the guy in fifth place just waiting to pounce as soon as one of us has a really  bad call - and I have a feeling I am well overdue for one of those...

[peterl]

I think a few of us suffered this week for overestimating the Lib Dems in Stroud.

[andrewp]

Nov 16, 2018 12:37:32 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations again to Andrew for taking the week yet again and for staying there just poised to take over the lead at the right time...but watch over your shoulder at the guy in fifth place just waiting to pounce as soon as one of us has a really  bad call - and I have a feeling I am well overdue for one of those...

Thanks Yellow Peril. Well done on maintaining your lead. I’ve just about clawed back from my disastrous first week of the month now! 

[andrewp]

Nov 16, 2018 14:18:37 GMT peterl said:

I think a few of us suffered this week for overestimating the Lib Dems in Stroud.

Yes nearly all of us overestimated them significantly. Wonder what happened there? Either of our local to Stroud contributors may be able to tell us whether they thought we were overestimating the Lib Dem’s or whether they too were surprised?

[ricmk]

Nov 16, 2018 15:43:50 GMT andrewp said:

Nov 16, 2018 14:18:37 GMT peterl said:

I think a few of us suffered this week for overestimating the Lib Dems in Stroud.

Yes nearly all of us overestimated them significantly. Wonder what happened there? Either of our local to Stroud contributors may be able to tell us whether they thought we were overestimating the Lib Dem’s or whether they too were surprised?

Well done andrewp
So much for the Retford gamble!

I predicted the Lib Dems to do poorly in Stroud.  Adam in Stroud posted on the other thread that he'd done a bit of leafleting and a tiny amount of canvassing, and that the local party were 'a work in progress' - that was all red flag stuff for me.

[peterl]

First entry for this week it seems

Bush Hill Park Enfield: Lab 41, Con 38, Grn 9, LD 7, Ind 3, WEP 2
Lancaster Gate Westminster: Con 44, Lab 37, Grn 10, LD 9
Dachet Windsor and Maidenhead: Con 54, Lab 23, LD 19, Grn 3, NFPP 1
Upton Wirral: Lab 61, Con 27, Grn 7, LD 5

[Robert Waller]

Bush Hill Park Enfield: Lab 41, Con 40, Grn 4, LD 8, Ind 4, WEP 3
Lancaster Gate Westminster: Con 44, Lab 37, Grn 5, LD 14
Dachet Windsor and Maidenhead: Con 51, Lab 17, LD 25, Grn 4, NFPP 3
Upton Wirral: Lab 63, Con 26, Grn 5, LD 6

[yellowperil]

I will go early for me this week- I am usually to be found here in the wee small hours of a Thursday morning, so that I can hopefully concentrate while Eileen sleeps.It also means that most information that is going to come to me late, such as Andrew's Previews, are there by the time I go for it. This week Eileen is in respite care so I can more easily go early, and tonight I will away. I will take my laptop with me but just in case there are wifi problems I will go now even though I may be missing some vital late intelligence which might have changed my mind. I don't want to risk 400 absence points!

Enfield, Bush Hill Park: Con 38, Lab 42, LD 9, Green 4,WEP 4, Ind 3
Westminster, Lancaster Gate: Con 41, Lab 38, LD 15, Green 6
Windsor & Maidenhead, Datchet: Con 50, Lab 18, LD 26,Green 3, NFPP 3
Wirral, Upton: Con 27, Lab 62, LD 5,Green 6.

[Tony Otim]

Enfield:Lab 45.1; Con 41.2; LD 5.6; Grn 3.5; Ind 2.5; WEP 2.1

Westminster: Con 47.7; Lab 39.1; LD 12.8; Grn 3.9

Windsor & Maidenhead: Con 51.4; Lab 24.8; LD 14.5; NFPP 6.5; Grn 2.8

Wirral: Lab 61.4; Con 24.2; Grn 7.8; LD 6.6

[Deleted]

Bush Hill Park Enfield: Lab 40, Con 35, Grn 7, LD 10, Ind 4, WEP 2
Lancaster Gate Westminster: Con 30, Lab 40, Grn 10, LD 20
Dachet Windsor and Maidenhead: Con 45, Lab 10, LD 30, Grn 10, NFPP 5
Upton Wirral: Lab 55, Con 20, Grn 5, LD 10