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Post by andrewp on Nov 1, 2018 11:38:01 GMT
Some very high scores being predicted for the LDs in South Glos. I haven't been involved in the campaigning but I hope people are not being overoptimistic (from my POV) here - the constituency did after all elect a Tory and gave him an increased majority in 2017, and Andrew tells us the Conservatives have been making the most of our candidates personal history.That aspect was one of my main grounds for hope as that sort of negative campaigning is rarely effective and often counter-productive, though I am worried that the campaigning strength of the local party might have been damaged in the two GE campaigns- we will see soon enough. I think my Lib Dem score in Yate might be one of the highest. I went high because of Yate being very loyal to the Lib Dems in the past. It depends whether the local party is in bounceback mode or licking their wounds mode after the 2 general election defeats. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 1, 2018 12:04:16 GMT
In byelections like this I tend to assume that the parties will pull in all their activists from neighbouring wards, who would not be there in a full council election. There are a lot of Lib Dems in Yate who would come to Dodington for a byelection but would stay in their own wards in an ordinary election.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 1, 2018 20:51:50 GMT
14 entries this week, with nothing from Casual Observer, Luke Dickinson and Third Chill. peterl rejoins after an extended gap.
Kirklees, Denby Dales: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, andrewp, David Boothroyd, olympian95, Right Leaning, Robert Waller & Tony Otim Conservative hold
Newham, Boleyn: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 35% (priceofdawn) to 61% (Robert Waller)
South Gloucestershire, Dodington: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, majority over Conservative from 5% (priceofdawn) to 27% (David Boothroyd)
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 2, 2018 8:21:18 GMT
Fascinating position after we have results from Newham and South Glos, and we wait for the Friday count at Kirklees. The table at present looks almost completely upside-down with usual leaders (Robert, Andrew and Hempie) among the five scoring in double figures on both polls. Interestingly, as we await the Kirklees result there is a strong minority opinion there in favour of a Tory win,and if that is right normal service will more or less return, but if the majority view is right and Labour win then the upside-down nature of the week will be reinforced.Hmm....
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Post by andrewp on Nov 2, 2018 10:04:03 GMT
Fascinating position after we have results from Newham and South Glos, and we wait for the Friday count at Kirklees. The table at present looks almost completely upside-down with usual leaders (Robert, Andrew and Hempie) among the five scoring in double figures on both polls. Interestingly, as we await the Kirklees result there is a strong minority opinion there in favour of a Tory win,and if that is right normal service will more or less return, but if the majority view is right and Labour win then the upside-down nature of the week will be reinforced.Hmm.... A pretty good set of predictions by everyone this week, and if Denby Dale is a close result either way, then the total faults for the week will be relatively low all round. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 2, 2018 11:25:31 GMT
Week 1:| Authority | Kirklees | Newham | South
Gloucestershire | Week 1 | Week 1 | | Ward | Denby Dale | Boleyn | Dodington | faults | position | andrewp | 9.4+10 | 12.8 | 18.9 | 51.0 | 13th | David Boothroyd | 12.1+10 | 7.5 | 20.9 | 50.5 | 12th | europeanlefty | 6.7 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 24.7 | 4th | greenrobinhood | 8.1 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 20.5 | 3rd | hempie | 3.4 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 29.3 | 6th | Olympian95 | 16.1+10 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 48.1 | 9th | peterl | 8.1 | 6.7 | 21.5 | 36.3 | 7th | priceofdawn | 10.7 | 29.5 | 27.5 | 67.8 | 14th | ricmk | 9.4 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 28.8 | 5th | Right Leaning | 11.4+10 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 48.8 | 10th | robbienicoll | 4.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 17.1 | 1st | Robert Waller | 9.4+10 | 10.8 | 18.9 | 49.0 | 11th | Tony Otim | 5.7+10 | 7.1 | 15.3 | 38.1 | 8th | Yellow Peril | 4.1 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 19.0 | 2nd | Total faults | 118.6+60 | 161.4 | 188.8 | 528.9 |
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 4 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 2, 2018 11:41:13 GMT
Fascinating position after we have results from Newham and South Glos, and we wait for the Friday count at Kirklees. The table at present looks almost completely upside-down with usual leaders (Robert, Andrew and Hempie) among the five scoring in double figures on both polls. Interestingly, as we await the Kirklees result there is a strong minority opinion there in favour of a Tory win,and if that is right normal service will more or less return, but if the majority view is right and Labour win then the upside-down nature of the week will be reinforced.Hmm.... A pretty good set of predictions by everyone this week, and if Denby Dale is a close result either way, then the total faults for the week will be relatively low all round. Indeed they were, and a remarkably good week all round, which of course means all will revert to normal later in the month,when its bound to get harder.. Congratulations to Robbie,of course! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2018 19:08:13 GMT
Dormers Wells (Ealing): Lab 60 Con 25 Grn 10 LD 5
Bush Fair (Harlow): Lab 43 Con 39 UKIP 7 HA 6 LD 5
Netteswell (Harlow): Lab 42 Con 38 UKIP 8 HA 7 LD 5
Holsworthy (Torridge): Con 60 LD 20 Ind 13 Lab 7
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2018 19:45:26 GMT
Dormers Wells (Ealing): Lab 55 Con 30 Grn 5 LD 10
Bush Fair (Harlow): Lab 45 Con 40 UKIP 5 HA 5 LD 5
Netteswell (Harlow): Lab 40 Con 35 UKIP 10 HA 10 LD 5
Holsworthy (Torridge): Con 55 LD 25 Ind 10 Lab 10
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 7, 2018 20:47:37 GMT
Ealing: Lab 71.4; Con 15.5; Grn 6.8; LD 6.3
Harlow, Bush Fair: Con 41.2; Lab 40.8; UKIP 8.8; HA 5.7; LD 3.5
Harlow, Netteswell: Lab 46.4; Con 39.9; UKIP 5.8; HA 5.3; LD 2.6
Torridge: Con 38.8; Ind 30.3; LD 21.2; Lab 9.7
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Nov 7, 2018 22:17:57 GMT
Ealing: Lab 72, Con 15, Green 7, LD 6
Harlow Bush Fair: Lab 42, Con 40, UKIP 8, HA 6, LD 4
Harlow Netteswell: Lab 46, Con 39, UKIP 6, HA 5, LD 4
Torridge: Con 41, Ind 34, LD 17, Lab 8
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 7, 2018 22:19:49 GMT
Dormers Wells, Ealing: Con 17, Lab 68, LD 6, Green 9
Bush Fair, Harlow: Con 34, Lab 42, LD 8, UKIP 5, Harlow Alliance 11
Netteswell, Harlow: Con 38, Lab 40, LD 12, UKIP 2, Harlow Alliance 8
Holsworthy, Torridge: Con 49, Lab 5, LD 13, Ind 33
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Post by greenhert on Nov 7, 2018 23:21:29 GMT
Ealing LBC, Dormers Wells: Labour 67, Conservative 18, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 6.
Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 43, Conservative 37, Harlow Alliance 10, Liberal Democrats 6, UKIP 4.
Harlow BC, Netteswell: Labour 42, Conservative 39, Harlow Alliance 10, Liberal Democrats 6, UKIP 3.
Torridge DC, Holsworthy: Conservative 46, Independent (Allen) 35, Liberal Democrats 15, Labour 4.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 7, 2018 23:28:51 GMT
Ealing LBC, Dormers Wells: Labour 77, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3.
Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 43, Conservative 37, Harlow Alliance 10, Liberal Democrats 5, UKIP 5.
Harlow BC, Netteswell: Labour 48, Conservative 36, Harlow Alliance 8, Liberal Democrats 4, UKIP 4.
Torridge DC, Holsworthy: Conservative 47, Independent (Allen) 26, Liberal Democrats 21, Labour 6.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 8, 2018 0:11:20 GMT
EALING Dormers Wells: Lab 76, C 15, L Dem 6, GP 3
HARLOW Bush Fair: Lab 44, C 38, HA 10, UKIP 5, L Dem 3
HARLOW Netteswell: Lab 49, C 37, HA 8, L Dem 4, UKIP 2
TORRIDGE Holsworthy: C 47, L Dem 26, Ind 17, Lab 10
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2018 4:31:27 GMT
Ealing, Dormers Wells: Con 15, Lab 70, LD 9, Green 6
Harlow, Bush Fair: Con 40, Lab 42, LD 4, UKIP 10, HA 4
Harlow, Netteswell: Con 39, Lab 47, LD 3, UKIP 6, HA 5
Torridge, Holsworthy: Con 48, Lab 5, L 22, Ind 25
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2018 7:31:05 GMT
Ealing, Dormers Wells Lab 72, Con 17, Lib Dem 7, Green 4
Harlow, Bush Fair Lab 43, Con 36, HA 11, UKIP 6, Lib Dem 4
Harlow, Nettleswell Lab 45, Con 37, HA10, Ukip 5, Lib Dem 3
Torridgr, Holsworthy Con 45, Ind 34, Lib Dem 16, Lab 5
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Post by Right Leaning on Nov 8, 2018 7:38:00 GMT
Ealing LBC, Dormers Wells: Lab 73, C 18, LD 6, Gn 3.
Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Lab 45, C 37, HA 5, UKIP 5, LD 3.
Harlow BC, Netteswell: Lab 48, C 39, HA 6, UKIP 4, LD 3.
Torridge DC, Holsworthy: C 45, Ind (Allen) 32, LD 18, Lab 5.
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Post by olympian95 on Nov 8, 2018 7:59:37 GMT
Ealing: Lab 73, Con 19, Green 5, LD 3
Harlow, Bush Fair: Con 39, Lab 37, UKIP 14, Harlow Allliance 6, LD 4
Harlow, Nettlleswell: Lab 40, Con 36, UKIP 11, LD 8, Harlow Alliance 5
Torridge: Con 44, Ind 35, LD 13, Lab 8
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Post by hempie on Nov 8, 2018 8:37:04 GMT
Ealing, Dormers Wells: Lab 74, Con 16, LD 6, Green 4
Harlow, Bush Fair: Lab 42, Con 35, Harlow Alliance 12, LD 7, UKIP 4
Harlow, Netteswell: Lab 41, Con 34, Harlow Alliance 10, LD 10, UKIP 5
Torridge, Holsworthy: Con 45, Ind (Allen) 28, LD 22, Lab 5
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