Prediction Competition - November 2018

[Tony Otim]

Bromley: Con 42.8; Lab 29.4; LD 16.4; Grn 5.9; UKIP 5.1
Buckinghamshire: LD 38.7; Con 32.2; Lab 24.6; Grn 4.5
Northampton: Con 33.8; lab 32.5; LD 18.7; Ind 11.5; grn 3.5
oldham: Lab 51.3; Con 30.6; UKIP 9.1; Ind 7.8; LD 1.2
Oxfordshire: LD 48.2; Con 43.2; Lab 8.6
Warwickshire: Stratford First 36.8; LD 26.5; Con 25.2; Lab 7.8; Grn 3.7
Welwyn Hatfield: Con 61.4; LD 21.5; Lab 17.1

[peterl]

BROMLEY Kelsey and Eden Park: CON 43, LAB 29, LD 17, GRN 8, UKIP 3
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE Aylesbury North West: CON 37, LD 34, LAB 26, GRN 3
NORTHAMPTON Delapre and Briar Hill: LAB 36, CON 32, LD 24, IND 5, GRN 3
OLDHAM Failsworth East: LAB 56, CON 30, IND 6, UKIP 5, LD 3
OXFORDSHIRE Wheatley: LD 44, CON 41, LAB 15
WARWICKSHIRE Stratford North: SF 32, LD 27, CON 25, LAB 11, GRN 5
WELWYN HATFIELD Welwyn West: CON 54, LD 34, LAB 12

[Deleted]

Bromley: Con 50; Lab 15; LD 20; Grn 10; UKIP 5
Buckinghamshire: LD 30; Con 45; Lab 15; Grn 10
Northampton: Con 30; Lab 35; LD 25; Ind 5; GRN 5
Oldham: Lab 45; Con 20; UKIP 10; Ind 15; LD 10
Oxfordshire: LD 40; Con 35; Lab 25
Warwickshire: Stratford First 30; LD 20; Con 35; Lab 10; Grn 5
Welwyn Hatfield: Con 50; LD 30; Lab 20

[ricmk]

Aylesbury: Con 40 LD 37 Lab 18 Green 5
Bromley: Con 45 Lab 35 LD 15 Green 3 UKIP 2
Northampton: Con 35 Lab 30 LD 19 Ind 11 Green 5
Oldham: Lab 56 Con 30 Ind 10 UKIP 3 LD 1
Oxfordshire: LD 48 Con 42 Lab 10
Stratford: LD 32 Con 31 Stratford First 27 Lab 8 Green 2
Welwyn Hatfield: Con 60 Lab 30 LD 10

[greenhert]

Buckinghamshire CC, Aylesbury North West: Liberal Democrats 42, Conservative 38, Labour 16, Green 4.
Bromley LBC, Kelsey & Eden Park: Conservative 44, Labour 34, Liberal Democrats 13, Green 5, UKIP 4.
Northampton BC, Delapre & Briar Hill: Labour 38, Conservative 35, Liberal Democrats 15, Independent (McKenna) 8, Green 4.
Oldham MBC, Failsworth East: Labour 50, Conservative 31, Independent (Bates) 11, UKIP 5, Liberal Democrats 3.
Oxfordshire CC, Wheatley: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 40, Labour 10.
Warwickshire CC, Stratford South: Stratford First 35, Liberal Democrats 29, Conservative 20, Labour 11, Green 5.
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Welwyn West: Conservative 57, Labour 27, Liberal Democrats 16.

[robbienicoll]

Toughest set since joining in my opinion. Several that could go anywhere.

Kelsey and Eden Park, Bromley: Con 47, Lab 29, LD 14, Green 7, UKIP 3
Aylesbury North West, Buckinghamshire: Con 37, LD 34, Lab 25, Green 4
Delapre and Briar Hill, Northampton: Con 35, Lab 33, LD 13, Green 2, Ind 17
Failsworth East, Oldham: Con 29, Lab 60, LD 1, UKIP 4, Ind 6
Wheatley, Oxfordshire: Con 45, Lab 8, LD 47
Stratford North, Warwickshire: Con 24, Lab 8, LD 20, Green 3, Stratford First 45
Welwyn West, Welwyn Hatfield: Con 55, Lab 7, LD 38

[Robert Waller]

Buckinghamshire CC, Aylesbury North West: Liberal Democrats 43, Conservative 27, Labour 27, Green 3.
Bromley LBC, Kelsey & Eden Park: Conservative 51, Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 4, UKIP 2.
Northampton BC, Delapre & Briar Hill: Labour 37, Conservative 36, Liberal Democrats 18, Independent (McKenna) 6, Green 3.
Oldham MBC, Failsworth East: Labour 58, Conservative 23, Independent (Bates) 8, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrats 4.
Oxfordshire CC, Wheatley: Liberal Democrats 52, Conservative 38, Labour 10.
Warwickshire CC, Stratford South: Stratford First 33, Liberal Democrats 32, Conservative 24, Labour 8, Green 3.
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Welwyn West: Conservative 60, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 24.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BROMLEY Kelsey and Eden Park: C 49, Lab 27, L Dem 19, UKIP 3, GP 2
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE Aylesbury North West: C 47, L Dem 40, Lab 11, GP 2
NORTHAMPTON Delapre and Briar Hill: Lab 41, C 32, L Dem 15, Ind 8, GP 4
OLDHAM Failsworth East: Lab 57, C 32, UKIP 6, Ind 3, L Dem 2
OXFORDSHIRE Wheatley: L Dem 50, C 44, Lab 6
WARWICKSHIRE Stratford North: SFirst 40, C 35, L Dem 15, Lab 7, GP 3
WELWYN HATFIELD West Welwyn: C 52, L Dem 32, Lab 16

[yellowperil]

Bromley, Kelsey & Eden Park: Con 50, Lab 29, LD 15, Green 3, UKIP 3
Bucks, Aylesbury NW: Con 33, Lab 24, LD 40, Green 3
Northampton, Delapre & Briar Hill: Con 34, Lab 36, LD 16, Green 4, Ind 10
Oldham, Failsworth East: Con 22, Lab 60, LD 3, UKIP 6, Ind 9
Oxon, Wheatley: Con 41, Lab 10, LD 49
Warks, Stratford N: Con 28, Lab 8, LD 32, Green 2, SF 30
Welwyn Hatfield, Welwyn W: Con 54, Lab 18, LD 28

[Right Leaning]

BROMLEY Kelsey and Eden Park: C 47, Lab 31, LD 18, UKIP 3, Gn 1
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE Aylesbury North West: C 43, LD 40, Lab 14, Gn 3
NORTHAMPTON Delapre and Briar Hill: Lab 39, C 34, LD 17, Ind 8, Gn 2
OLDHAM Failsworth East: Lab 61, C 30, UKIP 4, Ind 3, LD 2
OXFORDSHIRE Wheatley: LD 52, C 42, Lab 6
WARWICKSHIRE Stratford North: SFirst 39, C 33, LD 17, Lab 8, Gn 3
WELWYN HATFIELD West Welwyn: C 57, LD 29, Lab 14

[andrewp]

Bromley, Kelsey and Eden Park Con 47, Lab 30, Lib Dem 15, Green 5, UKIP 3
Buckinghamshire, Aylesbury North West Lib Dem 42, Con 35, Lab 21, Green 2
Northampton, Delaware and Briar Hill Lab 37, Con 33, Lib Dem 18, Ind 9, Green 3
Oldham, Failsworth East Lab 55, Con 29, UKIP 8, Ind 5, Lib Dem 3
Oxfordshire, Wheatley Lib Dem 49, Con 43, Lab 8
Warwickshire, Stratford North SF 35, Con 30, Lib Dem 24, Lab 7, Green 4
Welwyn Hatfield, West Welwyn Con 59, Lib Dem 28, Lab 13

[hempie]

Buckinghamshire, Aylesbury North West: LD 46, Con 26, Lab 23, Green 5
Bromley, Kelsey & Eden Park: Con 49, Lab 30, LD 15, Green 3, UKIP 3
Northampton, Delapre & Briar Hill: Lab 38, Con 35, LD 19, Ind 5, Green 3
Oldham, Failsworth East: Lab 59, Con 22, Ind 9, UKIP 5, LD 5
Oxfordshire, Wheatley: LD 54, Con 36, Labour 10
Warwickshire,Stratford South: Stratford First 32, LD 29, Con 26, Lab 10, Green 3
Welwyn Hatfield, Welwyn West: Con 58, LD 25,Lab 17

[olympian95]

Bromley: Con 44, Lab 29, LD 21, UKIP 4, Green 2

Oldham: Lab 53, Con 27,UKIP 11, Ind 6, LD 3

Bucks: LD 45, Con 39, Lab 12, Green 4

Oxon: LD 49, Con 46, Lab 5

Warks: Stratford 36, Con 31, LD 24, Lab 7, Green 2

Northampton: Lab 43, Con 37, LD 13, Ind 5, Green 2

Welwyn: LD 47, Con 44, Lab 9

[andrewp]

About 4 or 5 of today’s 7 are very tricky to forecast. Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Stratford and Northampton

[yellowperil]

Nov 29, 2018 10:32:50 GMT andrewp said:

About 4 or 5 of today’s 7 are very tricky to forecast. Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Stratford and Northampton

Bromley and Oldham are the only ones that look pretty certain, though surprisingly there is a third one where we are all in agreement, a Lib Dem win in Oxon, but I have to say I had my fingers crossed as I went for that one- its not that unusual to get a 100% wrong winner  in places like that. I've also gone for Lib Dem wins in Bucks and Warks which may be a triumph of hope over experience- if I'm going to lose my lead for the month I might as well go down in style

[andrewp]

Nov 29, 2018 12:27:31 GMT yellowperil said:

Nov 29, 2018 10:32:50 GMT andrewp said:

About 4 or 5 of today’s 7 are very tricky to forecast. Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Stratford and Northampton

Bromley and Oldham are the only ones that look pretty certain, though surprisingly there is a third one where we are all in agreement, a Lib Dem win in Oxon, but I have to say I had my fingers crossed as I went for that one- its not that unusual to get a 100% wrong winner  in places like that. I've also gone for Lib Dem wins in Bucks and Warks which may be a triumph of hope over experience- if I'm going to lose my lead for the month I might as well go down in style

Yes, those are the only 2 pretty certain ones. I was tempted by the Conservatives in Oxfordshire in the basis of a District councillor and more local candidate but the Oxford influence does seem to influence the surrounding area to be fairly solid for the Lib Dem’s.


The Lib Dem’s could win 0 or 3, the Conservatives 1 to 5

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2018 12:27:31 GMT yellowperil said:

Nov 29, 2018 10:32:50 GMT andrewp said:

About 4 or 5 of today’s 7 are very tricky to forecast. Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Stratford and Northampton

Bromley and Oldham are the only ones that look pretty certain, though surprisingly there is a third one where we are all in agreement, a Lib Dem win in Oxon, but I have to say I had my fingers crossed as I went for that one- its not that unusual to get a 100% wrong winner  in places like that. I've also gone for Lib Dem wins in Bucks and Warks which may be a triumph of hope over experience- if I'm going to lose my lead for the month I might as well go down in style

Bromley is historically very safe but that seems quite a good Labour result in May

[ricmk]

Nov 29, 2018 13:33:17 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Nov 29, 2018 12:27:31 GMT yellowperil said:

Bromley and Oldham are the only ones that look pretty certain, though surprisingly there is a third one where we are all in agreement, a Lib Dem win in Oxon, but I have to say I had my fingers crossed as I went for that one- its not that unusual to get a 100% wrong winner  in places like that. I've also gone for Lib Dem wins in Bucks and Warks which may be a triumph of hope over experience- if I'm going to lose my lead for the month I might as well go down in style

Bromley is historically very safe but that seems quite a good Labour result in May

I suspect there will be some high scores tonight that might make the previous weeks academic in this month's competition.

I just wonder if Bromley might be one to watch, particularly having seen samdwebber 's comments on the other thread.

[yellowperil]

Nov 29, 2018 13:33:17 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Nov 29, 2018 12:27:31 GMT yellowperil said:

Bromley and Oldham are the only ones that look pretty certain, though surprisingly there is a third one where we are all in agreement, a Lib Dem win in Oxon, but I have to say I had my fingers crossed as I went for that one- its not that unusual to get a 100% wrong winner  in places like that. I've also gone for Lib Dem wins in Bucks and Warks which may be a triumph of hope over experience- if I'm going to lose my lead for the month I might as well go down in style

Bromley is historically very safe but that seems quite a good Labour result in May

Granted,  and your candidate this time is the top one from then, and clearly you have taken up the role of challenger which in the past was with the Lib Dems, but it looks like still too great a challenge for this time even with the Tories in their present travails -  if they can't hold this one they really are in trouble.

Edit- have just read the samdwebber post referred to above. Hmm, interesting- have I got my hoped-for LibDem victories all wrong? Time will tell.

[samdwebber]

I suspect that battle is for 2nd place! I note of 14 predictions above that 13 have us in 3rd and 1 has us in 2nd. I look forward to the result come what may!