Prediction Competition - November 2018

[greenhert]

Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Labour 42, Conservative 39, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 5, Independent (Ovaloyu) 3, WEP 2.
Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 45, Labour 40, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 5.
Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Dachet: Conservative 45, Liberal Democrats 27, Labour 18, NFPP 6, Green 4.
Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 60, Conservative 28, Green 7, Liberal Democrats 5.

[robbienicoll]

Bush Hill Park, Enfield: Con 40, Lab 41, LD 7, Green 7, WEP 2, Ind 3
Lancaster Gate, Westminster: Con 43, Lab 39, LD 11, Green 7
Dachet, Windsor and Maidenhead: Con 51, Lab 15, LD 27, Green 2, NFPP 5
Upton, Wirral: Con 27, Lab 63, LD 5, Green 5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ENFIELD Bush Hill Park: Lab 43, C 40, WEP 6, GP 5, L Dem 4, Ind 2
WINDSOR AND MAIDENHEAD Dachet: C 54, L Dem 25, Lab 11, NFPP 7, GP 3
WIRRAL Upton: Lab 57, C 31, GP 8, L Dem 4

Lancaster Gate prediction to be sent by PM and embargoed until the polls close

[middleenglander]

Nov 22, 2018 0:38:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

ENFIELD Bush Hill Park: Lab 43, C 40, WEP 6, GP 5, L Dem 4, Ind 2
WINDSOR AND MAIDENHEAD Dachet: C 54, L Dem 25, Lab 11, NFPP 7, GP 3
WIRRAL Upton: Lab 57, C 31, GP 8, L Dem 4

Lancaster Gate prediction to be sent by PM and embargoed until the polls close

Received and understood.

[Right Leaning]

Bush Hill Park Enfield: Lab 43, C 38, LD 7, Gn 4, Ind 4, WEP 4
Lancaster Gate Westminster: C 46, Lab 36, LD 12, Gn 6,
Dachet Windsor and Maidenhead: C 53, LD 23, Lab 17, Gn 5, NFPP 2
Upton Wirral: Lab 61, C 31, LD 5, Gn 3

[olympian95]

Enfield: Lab 42, Con 40, LD 8, Green 5, WEP 3, Ind 2

Westminster : Con 48, Lab 39, LD 9,Green 4

Windsor: Con 54, Lab 19, LD 16, Nat Flood 7, Green 4

Wirral: Lab 66 Con 21 Green 8 LD 5

[ricmk]

Enfield: Con 41 Lab 39 LD 8 WEP 5 Green 4 Ind 3
Westminster: Con 45 Lab 40 LD 10 Green 5
Windsor: Con 50 LD 25 Lab 20 Green 4 Flood 1
Wirral: Lab 55 Con 30 LD 8 Green 7

[andrewp]

Enfield, Bush Hill Park Lab 43, Con 41, Lib Dem 7, Green 4, WEP 3, Ind 2
Westminster, Lancaster Gate Con 45, Lab 36, Lib Dem 14, Green 5
Windsor and Maidenhead, Datchet Con 47, Lib Dem 29, Lab 15, Flood 5, Green 4
Wirral, Upton, Lab 63, Con 25, Lib Dem 6, Green 6

[hempie]

Enfield,Bush Hill Park: Lab 44, Con 38, LD 9, Green 4, Ind 3, WEP 2
Westminster, Lancaster Gate: Lab 44, Con 41,LD 12, Green 3
Windsor & Maidenhead, Dachet: Con 51, LD 24, Lab 19, Green 3, NFPP 3
Wirral, Upton: Lab 60, Con 24, LD 10, Green 6

[middleenglander]

Just 13 entries this week with europeanlefty having gone AWOL. Priceofdawn gets 2 additional faults for adding to 98% in Enfield and another 10 for adding to 90% in Wirral whilst Tony Otim gets 3.5 additional faults for adding to 103.5% in Westminster.

Enfield, Bush Hill Park: 12 Labour gain from Conservative,majority from 1% (robbienicoll and Robert Waller) to 6% (Yellow Peril), ricmk Conservative hold
Westminster, Lancaster Gate: 11 Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 4% (robbienicoll) to 13% (David Boothroyd), hempie & priceofdawn Labour gain
Windsor & Maidenhead, Datchet: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 15%( priceofdawn over Liberal Democrat) to 35% (Olympian95 over Labour)
Wirral, Upton: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 25% (ricmk) to 45% (Olympian95)

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2018 0:38:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

ENFIELD Bush Hill Park: Lab 43, C 40, WEP 6, GP 5, L Dem 4, Ind 2
WINDSOR AND MAIDENHEAD Dachet: C 54, L Dem 25, Lab 11, NFPP 7, GP 3
WIRRAL Upton: Lab 57, C 31, GP 8, L Dem 4

Lancaster Gate prediction to be sent by PM and embargoed until the polls close

so polls have closed. Whats the exit poll in Westminister

[middleenglander]

Nov 22, 2018 22:06:11 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Nov 22, 2018 0:38:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

ENFIELD Bush Hill Park: Lab 43, C 40, WEP 6, GP 5, L Dem 4, Ind 2
WINDSOR AND MAIDENHEAD Dachet: C 54, L Dem 25, Lab 11, NFPP 7, GP 3
WIRRAL Upton: Lab 57, C 31, GP 8, L Dem 4

Lancaster Gate prediction to be sent by PM and embargoed until the polls close

so polls have closed. Whats the exit poll in Westminister

Conservative 48, Labour 35, Liberal Democrat 14, Green 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nov 22, 2018 22:29:42 GMT middleenglander said:

Nov 22, 2018 22:06:11 GMT @priceofdawn said:

so polls have closed. Whats the exit poll in Westminister

Conservative 48, Labour 35, Liberal Democrat 14, Green 3

Result yet to be announced but I’m very very proud of the accuracy of this prediction.

[middleenglander]

Nov 22, 2018 23:56:26 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Nov 22, 2018 22:29:42 GMT middleenglander said:

Conservative 48, Labour 35, Liberal Democrat 14, Green 3

Result yet to be announced but I’m very very proud of the accuracy of this prediction.

Deservedly so. You were very close with an earlier Westminster by-election prediction a couple or years or more ago.

[Robert Waller]

Yes, I think it may have pushed David way up to third in the month as well as first for the week, with one result to come.

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to olympian95 on taking this difficult week, and Davıd Boothroyd for an almost perfect score at Lancaster Gate.  Somehow I have just about managed to keep my nose in front for the month, but we are now all so tightly bunched that by the end of next week I cannot be confident that I will necessarily still be even in the top 10.

[andrewp]

Nov 23, 2018 2:07:03 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to olympian95 on taking this difficult week, and Davıd Boothroyd for an almost perfect score at Lancaster Gate.  Somehow I have just about managed to keep my nose in front for the month, but we are now all so tightly bunched that by the end of next week I cannot be confident that I will necessarily still be even in the top 10.

Yes. Congratulation to Olympian. Well done for retaining the lead, you’ve led almost all the way this month.

[olympian95]

Thanks - what a strange week!

[middleenglander]

Week 4:
- amended for revised Green vote in Enfield and Labour vote in Windsor & Maidenhead

Authority	Weeks 1 - 3	Enfield	Westminster	Windsor &   Maidenhead	Wirral	Week 4	Week 4	Weeks 1 - 4	Weeks 1 - 4
Ward	faults	Bush Hill Park	Lancaster Gate	Datchet	Upton	faults	position	faults	position
andrewp	174.1	30.8+10	4.9	55.5	8.5	109.7	5th	283.7	2nd
David Boothroyd	201.0	38.2+10	1.6	41.3	8.7	99.7	1st	300.8	5th
europeanlefty	204.2	100	100	100	100	400		604.2	14th
greenrobinhood	183.6	31.6+10	12.9	57.5	4.7	116.0	10th	300.2	4th
hempie	196.0	34.2+10	17.3+10	51.5	13.2	136.1	12th	332.1	12th
Olympian95	222.1	30.2+10	10.4	37.5	16.0	104.2	2nd	326.3	10th
peterl	207.6	37.6+10	16.9	49.5	4.7	118.6	11th	326.2	9th
priceofdawn	290.3	35.6+10+2	34.4+10	65.3	23.2+10	190.4	13th	480.7	13th
ricmk	215.0	28.8	12.9	57.5	12.7	111.9	7th	326.8	11th
Right Leaning	207.1	36.8+10	6.9	49.5	7.1	110.3	6th	317.4	7th
robbienicoll	188.8	33.6+10	14.9	48.0	6.5	112.9	8th	301.6	6th
Robert Waller	190.7	30.8+10	6.9	51.5	8.5	107.7	3rd	298.3	3rd
Tony Otim	216.8	35.4+10	6.3+3.5	43.7	9.6	108.6	4th	325.4	8th
Yellow Peril	168.2	32.8+10	12.4	53.5	4.5	113.2	9th	281.4	1st
Total faults	2,865.3	536.4+2+120	258.4+3.5+20	761.6	227.9+10	1,939.9		4,805.1

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 7 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[ElectionMapsUK]

BROMLEY Kelsey and Eden Park: CON 39, LAB 30, LDM 17, GRN 8, UKIP 6
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE Aylesbury North West: CON 41, LDM 37, LAB 19, GRN 3
NORTHAMPTON Delapre and Briar Hill: LAB 38, CON 37, LDM 11, IND 10, GRN 4
OLDHAM Failsworth East: LAB 52, CON 25, IND 12, LDM 8, UKIP 4
OXFORDSHIRE Wheatley: LDM 47, CON 36, LAB 17
WARWICKSHIRE Stratford North: SFF 36, LDM 27, CON 26, LAB 9, GRN 2
WELWYN HATFIELD Welwyn West: CON 51, LDM 31, LAB 18