Prediction Competition - September 2018

[samdwebber]

I note not a single prediction of a Lib Dem gain in Winchester. The City council will remain Tory controlled it seems. Interesting one to watch.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Would have been different if it had been an urban ward. Very difficult to get a bandwagon rolling in fifteen tiny villages and hamlets spread over more than 20 square miles.

[andrewp]

In Middle Englanders absence, a quick look through

We have different winners predicted in East Devon ( Conservative and Independent) and Suffolk Coastal ( Conservative and Lib Dem)

Unanimity on the winners in Epsom & Ewell, Luton, Winchester and Wyre Forest

[Robert Waller]

After the first five results, I think from a rough calculation that Andrew P and Olympian still hold the top positions for the month, followed by Third Chill who is doing very well for the week ... and contrary to Yellow Peril's great faith in my guesses, I may have fallen out of the top ten entirely! So a new monthly winner is inevitable, and long overdue.

[yellowperil]

Sept 21, 2018 9:38:48 GMT Robert Waller said:

After the first five results, I think from a rough calculation that Andrew P and Olympian still hold the top positions for the month, followed by Third Chill who is doing very well for the week ... and contrary to Yellow Peril's great faith in my guesses, I may have fallen out of the top ten entirely! So a new monthly winner is inevitable, and long overdue.

but then I'm not very good at predicting, am I?

[Robert Waller]

Better than me so far this month!
After the Suffolk Coastal result, and awaiting the authoritative count from ME, I think Andrew P holds a strongish lead going into the last week of September.
Hempie was extremely accurate in Suffolk, and may have caught Olympian in a close battle for second place for the month -
which is also joined by Third Chill who has still done well for the week along with Andrew P.

Of course, all this may be as much rubbish as my predictions this last fortnight!

[olympian95]

Really exciting month! Well done everyone

[middleenglander]

For Week 3

Authority	East Devon	Epsom & Ewell	Luton	Suffolk Coastal	Winchester	Wyre Forest
Ward	Ottery St Mary    Rural	Nonsuch	Limbury	Westhaston  & Westleton	Upper Meon      Valley	Bewdley & Rock
andrewp	42.8	14.1	31.0	6.7	25.9	18.6
David Boothroyd	52.8+10	22.1	25.0	3.9	31.9	11.6
greenrobinhood	49.1	24.1	25.0	9.3	45.9	14.6
hempie	56.8+10	18.1	29.0	0.8	31.9	15.0
Luke Dickinson	82.8+10	28.4	10.7	25.2	19.9	24.6
Olympian95	46.8+10	16.4	32.3	19.3+10	9.0	22.6
priceofdawn	75.1	16.4+10	7.0+10	11.3	29.9	24.6
Right Leaning	46.8+10	32.4	29.0	9.3	33.9	16.6
robbienicoll	52.8+10	20.4	29.0	10.1	43.9	13.6
Robert Waller	58.8+10	14.4	31.0	4.7	35.9	22.6
Third Chill	46.8+10	16.1	31.0	13.9	13.0	8.6
Tony Otim	63.6+10	12.8	34.8	1.7	32.3	14.2
Yellow Peril	76.8+10	16.4	33.0	5.3	23.9	12.6
Total	751.7+100	251.6+10	347.5+10	121.5+10	377.1	220.0

Priceofdawn originally added to 90% in both Epsom & Ewell and Luton thereby gaining 2 x 10 additional faults.  However, he corrected the figures for Luton at 10.12 am but kept the original ones for Epsom & Ewell.  This then incurs 10 additional faults for a late entry at Luton, which I have as the prediction.

[middleenglander]

For Weeks 1 to 3

	Weeks 1 & 2	Week 3	Week 3	Weeks 1 - 3	Weeks 1 - 3
	Faults	Faults	Position	Faults	Position
andrewp	243.3	139.0	1st	382.3	1st
David Boothroyd	311.2	157.2	3rd	468.4	9th
greenrobinhood	275.0	167.9	6th	442.8	6th
hempie	253.0	161.5	4th	414.5	3rd
Luke Dickinson	290.6	201.5	13th	492.1	12th
Olympian95	245.9	166.5	5th	412.4	2nd
priceofdawn	309.6	184.2	12th	493.8	13th
Right Leaning	287.8	178.0	10th	465.8	8th
robbienicoll	310.1	179.7	11th	489.8	11th
Robert Waller	292.8	177.4	8th	470.2	10th
Third Chill	276.7	139.4	2nd	416.1	4th
Tony Otim	266.2	169.1	7th	435.4	5th
Yellow Peril	277.6	177.9	9th	455.5	7th
Total *	3,639.8	2,199.4		5,839.2

* excludes Europeanlefty

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections in the final week of September.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to Andrew for both week and month to date, and for being the only one under 400 after a very tricky 16 polls. However, I would say it is remarkably close how the rest of us also-rans are, so 12 out of 13 in the 400's. In the normal way you might think after 16 out of 19 in the bag and just the final 3 to go, it was all decided, but this time the last 3 elections could thoroughly mess up the final order.

[andrewp]

Sept 22, 2018 6:53:06 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to Andrew for both week and month to date, and for being the only one under 400 after a very tricky 16 polls. However, I would say it is remarkably close how the rest of us also-rans are, so 12 out of 13 in the 400's. In the normal way you might think after 16 out of 19 in the bag and just the final 3 to go, it was all decided, but this time the last 3 elections could thoroughly mess up the final order.

Thankyou Yellowperil, Anything can, and probably will, still happen.

[yellowperil]

Looking back, I had a generally mediocre week and then one real stinker, which was OSM- don't know whether I confess that to my family down there. Ok pretty well everybody caught a cold on that one, but I totally failed to read the strong Indy performance and didn't pick up the strong presence of Claire Wright in that campaign, so overestimated the effect that the disqualification of the previous incumbent. I think in general I am inclined to overestimate the effect of a failed incumbency-it has happened to me before. Has anybody made a study of the impact of disqualifications on subsequent by-elections?

[andrewp]

Sept 22, 2018 7:17:07 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking back, I had a generally mediocre week and then one real stinker, which was OSM- don't know whether I confess that to my family down there. Ok pretty well everybody caught a cold on that one, but I totally failed to read the strong Indy performance and didn't pick up the strong presence of Claire Wright in that campaign, so overestimated the effect that the disqualification of the previous incumbent. I think in general I am inclined to overestimate the effect of a failed incumbency-it has happened to me before. Has anybody made a study of the impact of disqualifications on subsequent by-elections?

I fancied an Independent win in Ottery and wish I’d gone a bit stronger for them. I wonder whether failed incumbency matters less for Independent types? If a party councillor fails then the voter thinks I’m not voting for that party again because the last councillor was useless. People who are voting Independent may not draw the same links to the previous councillor because the person is perhaps a bigger factor and that person is different. 

Widespread Independent success to my mind often seems to come in areas where one of the main parties has a dominance. - Blaenau Gwent, Mansfield ( at the time), East Devon. Where there might be an initial issue, but then supporters of the other parties are more readily persuadable to vote Independent because their chosen party never wins, and any Independent is a better prospect than the dominant party, and then with action and success you start to attract some voters from the dominant party. 

I think Claire Wright’s politics are left of centre- but is able to portray the non political Community campaigner at both local elections and general elections in what is basically a very affluent area.  She is the County Councillor for this area, although voting Independent is not new as I think she succeeded Roger Giles who was an Independent CC for 25 years

[yellowperil]

Sept 22, 2018 7:39:02 GMT andrewp said:

Sept 22, 2018 7:17:07 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking back, I had a generally mediocre week and then one real stinker, which was OSM- don't know whether I confess that to my family down there. Ok pretty well everybody caught a cold on that one, but I totally failed to read the strong Indy performance and didn't pick up the strong presence of Claire Wright in that campaign, so overestimated the effect that the disqualification of the previous incumbent. I think in general I am inclined to overestimate the effect of a failed incumbency-it has happened to me before. Has anybody made a study of the impact of disqualifications on subsequent by-elections?

I fancied an Independent win in Ottery and wish I’d gone a bit stronger for them. I wonder whether failed incumbency matters less for Independent types? If a party councillor fails then the voter thinks I’m not voting for that party again because the last councillor was useless. People who are voting Independent may not draw the same links to the previous councillor because the person is perhaps a bigger factor and that person is different. 

Widespread Independent success to my mind often seems to come in areas where one of the main parties has a dominance. - Blaenau Gwent, Mansfield ( at the time), East Devon. Where there might be an initial issue, but then supporters of the other parties are more readily persuadable to vote Independent because their chosen party never wins, and any Independent is a better prospect than the dominant party, and then with action and success you start to attract some voters from the dominant party. 

I think Claire Wright’s politics are left of centre- but is able to portray the non political Community campaigner at both local elections and general elections in what is basically a very affluent area.  She is the County Councillor for this area, although voting Independent is not new as I think she succeeded Roger Giles who was an Independent CC for 25 years

I think you may be right about the public being less concerned with previous incumbency  in the case of an independent, and it may be significant in this case that the candidate was billed as Independent rather than EDA, though he seems to have been very much within the EDA family. Indeed EDA has a lot of the characteristics of a conventional political party. Undoubtedly they have been very successful at squeezing the  alternative left of centre vote whether Lib Dem, Green or Labour, as well as hoovering up a substantial part of the more centrist Tory vote. Indeed had I been living in the area I would have been tempted, I guess - would certainly have been voting for Claire in the GE.

[andrewp]

Sept 22, 2018 11:19:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Sept 22, 2018 7:39:02 GMT andrewp said:

I fancied an Independent win in Ottery and wish I’d gone a bit stronger for them. I wonder whether failed incumbency matters less for Independent types? If a party councillor fails then the voter thinks I’m not voting for that party again because the last councillor was useless. People who are voting Independent may not draw the same links to the previous councillor because the person is perhaps a bigger factor and that person is different. 

Widespread Independent success to my mind often seems to come in areas where one of the main parties has a dominance. - Blaenau Gwent, Mansfield ( at the time), East Devon. Where there might be an initial issue, but then supporters of the other parties are more readily persuadable to vote Independent because their chosen party never wins, and any Independent is a better prospect than the dominant party, and then with action and success you start to attract some voters from the dominant party. 

I think Claire Wright’s politics are left of centre- but is able to portray the non political Community campaigner at both local elections and general elections in what is basically a very affluent area.  She is the County Councillor for this area, although voting Independent is not new as I think she succeeded Roger Giles who was an Independent CC for 25 years

I think you may be right about the public being less concerned with previous incumbency  in the case of an independent, and it may be significant in this case that the candidate was billed as Independent rather than EDA, though he seems to have been very much within the EDA family. Indeed EDA has a lot of the characteristics of a conventional political party. Undoubtedly they have been very successful at squeezing the  alternative left of centre vote whether Lib Dem, Green or Labour, as well as hoovering up a substantial part of the more centrist Tory vote. Indeed had I been living in the area I would have been tempted, I guess - would certainly have been voting for Claire in the GE.

It will be interesting for next years all out East Devon’s elections whether they brand themselves as EDA or as Independents, 

i dont know if the Conservatives are particularly bad and/or were complacent in East Devon. 

[middleenglander]

For Week 3 - amended

Authority	East Devon	Epsom & Ewell	Luton	Suffolk Coastal	Winchester	Wyre Forest
Ward	Ottery St Mary    Rural	Nonsuch	Limbury	Westhaston  & Westleton	Upper Meon      Valley	Bewdley & Rock
andrewp	42.8	14.1	32.0	6.7	25.9	18.6
David Boothroyd	52.8+10	22.1	26.0	3.9	31.9	11.6
greenrobinhood	49.1	24.1	26.0	9.3	45.9	14.6
hempie	56.8+10	18.1	30.0	0.8	31.9	15.0
Luke Dickinson	82.8+10	28.4	11.4	25.2	19.9	24.6
Olympian95	46.8+10	16.4	32.7	19.3+10	9.0	22.6
priceofdawn	75.1	16.4+10	8.0+10	11.3	29.9	24.6
Right Leaning	46.8+10	32.4	30.0	9.3	33.9	16.6
robbienicoll	52.8+10	20.4	30.0	10.1	43.9	13.6
Robert Waller	58.8+10	14.4	32.0	4.7	35.9	22.6
Third Chill	46.8+10	16.1	32.0	13.9	13.0	8.6
Tony Otim	63.6+10	12.8	35.8	1.7	32.3	14.2
Yellow Peril	76.8+10	16.4	34.0	5.3	23.9	12.6
Total	751.7+100	251.6+10	360.3+10	121.5+10	377.1	220.0

Priceofdawn originally added to 90% in both Epsom & Ewell and Luton thereby gaining 2 x 10 additional faults.  However, he corrected the figures for Luton at 10.12 am but kept the original ones for Epsom & Ewell.  This then incurs 10 additional faults for a late entry at Luton, which I have as the prediction.

Whilst posting the analysis of the party performances on the 20 September thread, I noticed I had taken the initial Luton Liberal Democrat vote of 334 as per the tweet and not the correct 344; David Boothroyd did post the correct result a few minutes later.  It makes a difference of around 1 additional fault for most.

[yellowperil]

Sept 22, 2018 11:32:06 GMT andrewp said:

Sept 22, 2018 11:19:17 GMT yellowperil said:

I think you may be right about the public being less concerned with previous incumbency  in the case of an independent, and it may be significant in this case that the candidate was billed as Independent rather than EDA, though he seems to have been very much within the EDA family. Indeed EDA has a lot of the characteristics of a conventional political party. Undoubtedly they have been very successful at squeezing the  alternative left of centre vote whether Lib Dem, Green or Labour, as well as hoovering up a substantial part of the more centrist Tory vote. Indeed had I been living in the area I would have been tempted, I guess - would certainly have been voting for Claire in the GE.

It will be interesting for next years all out East Devon’s elections whether they brand themselves as EDA or as Independents, 

i dont know if the Conservatives are particularly bad and/or were complacent in East Devon. 

Probably all of those things!

However I think there is an underlying radical streak lurking in a lot of rural Devon , alongside the old Tory squirearchy and the nouveau riche incomers.  It turns up from time to time - I think back to the days of the Aclands and the Foots and seminal events like the Torrington by-election. There are a few Tories who can plug into that tradition,say the present member for Totnes, and sometimes the Lib Dems have been able to build on it, but it remains sturdily independent. East Devon is simply the place where they have been able ,to a degree, to get an act together.

[andrewp]

Sept 22, 2018 12:51:09 GMT yellowperil said:

Sept 22, 2018 11:32:06 GMT andrewp said:

It will be interesting for next years all out East Devon’s elections whether they brand themselves as EDA or as Independents, 

i dont know if the Conservatives are particularly bad and/or were complacent in East Devon. 

Probably all of those things!

However I think there is an underlying radical streak lurking in a lot of rural Devon , alongside the old Tory squirearchy and the nouveau riche incomers.  It turns up from time to time - I think back to the days of the Aclands and the Foots and seminal events like the Torrington by-election. There are a few Tories who can plug into that tradition,say the present member for Totnes, and sometimes the Lib Dems have been able to build on it, but it remains sturdily independent. East Devon is simply the place where they have been able ,to a degree, to get an act together.

The largest village in Ottery St Mary Rural is West Hill I believe, which is a slightly unusual Devon village, largely post war big houses in big plots. 

Its interesting that the Independents/ EDA  haven’t yet got going in the East Devon wards that are in the Tiverton and Honiton constituency. I have heard that Neil Parish is a much more diligent local MP than Hugo Swire and I wonder if that is a slight factor- Parish is a farmer and has a local accent. Swire is an old Etonian.

[middleenglander]

For Weeks 1 to 3 - amended

	Weeks 1 & 2	Week 3	Week 3	Weeks 1 - 3	Weeks 1 - 3
	Faults	Faults	Position	Faults	Position
andrewp	243.3	140.1	1st	383.4	1st
David Boothroyd	311.2	158.3	3rd	469.5	9th
greenrobinhood	275.0	168.9	6th	443.9	6th
hempie	253.0	162.6	4th	415.6	3rd
Luke Dickinson	290.6	202.2	13th	492.8	12th
Olympian95	245.9	166.9	5th	412.8	2nd
priceofdawn	309.6	185.3	12th	494.9	13th
Right Leaning	287.8	179.0	10th	466.9	8th
robbienicoll	310.1	180.8	11th	490.8	11th
Robert Waller	292.8	178.4	8th	471.2	10th
Third Chill	276.7	140.5	2nd	417.2	4th
Tony Otim	266.2	170.2	7th	436.4	5th
Yellow Peril	277.6	179.0	9th	456.6	7th
Total *	3,639.8	2,212.4		5,852.0

* excludes Europeanlefty

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections in the final week of September.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Sept 22, 2018 13:01:39 GMT andrewp said:

Sept 22, 2018 12:51:09 GMT yellowperil said:

Probably all of those things!

However I think there is an underlying radical streak lurking in a lot of rural Devon , alongside the old Tory squirearchy and the nouveau riche incomers.  It turns up from time to time - I think back to the days of the Aclands and the Foots and seminal events like the Torrington by-election. There are a few Tories who can plug into that tradition,say the present member for Totnes, and sometimes the Lib Dems have been able to build on it, but it remains sturdily independent. East Devon is simply the place where they have been able ,to a degree, to get an act together.

The largest village in Ottery St Mary Rural is West Hill I believe, which is a slightly unusual Devon village, largely post war big houses in big plots. 

Its interesting that the Independents/ EDA  haven’t yet got going in the East Devon wards that are in the Tiverton and Honiton constituency. I have heard that Neil Parish is a much more diligent local MP than Hugo Swire and I wonder if that is a slight factor- Parish is a farmer and has a local accent. Swire is an old Etonian.

The largest village in the ward but very atypical. I guessed upthread that that was where the Tory vote would remain solid, and its where their candidate came from.

Claire is obviously interested in her own parliamentary constituency and I imagine any attempt to break out into T&H would need someone else with similar vision and drive to take them on, and I suspect there isn't anybody who fits that description.