Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 20, 2018 14:29:40 GMT
Would have been different if it had been an urban ward. Very difficult to get a bandwagon rolling in fifteen tiny villages and hamlets spread over more than 20 square miles.
Post by Robert Waller on Sept 21, 2018 9:38:48 GMT
After the first five results, I think from a rough calculation that Andrew P and Olympian still hold the top positions for the month, followed by Third Chill who is doing very well for the week ... and contrary to Yellow Peril's great faith in my guesses, I may have fallen out of the top ten entirely! So a new monthly winner is inevitable, and long overdue.
Last Edit: Sept 21, 2018 9:39:52 GMT by Robert Waller
After the first five results, I think from a rough calculation that Andrew P and Olympian still hold the top positions for the month, followed by Third Chill who is doing very well for the week ... and contrary to Yellow Peril's great faith in my guesses, I may have fallen out of the top ten entirely! So a new monthly winner is inevitable, and long overdue.
Post by Robert Waller on Sept 21, 2018 15:01:13 GMT
Better than me so far this month! After the Suffolk Coastal result, and awaiting the authoritative count from ME, I think Andrew P holds a strongish lead going into the last week of September. Hempie was extremely accurate in Suffolk, and may have caught Olympian in a close battle for second place for the month - which is also joined by Third Chill who has still done well for the week along with Andrew P.
Of course, all this may be as much rubbish as my predictions this last fortnight!
Last Edit: Sept 21, 2018 22:23:26 GMT by Robert Waller
Post by middleenglander on Sept 21, 2018 22:59:24 GMT
For Week 3
Authority
East Devon
Epsom & Ewell
Luton
Suffolk Coastal
Winchester
Wyre Forest
Ward
Ottery St Mary Rural
Nonsuch
Limbury
Westhaston & Westleton
Upper Meon Valley
Bewdley & Rock
andrewp
42.8
14.1
31.0
6.7
25.9
18.6
David Boothroyd
52.8+10
22.1
25.0
3.9
31.9
11.6
greenrobinhood
49.1
24.1
25.0
9.3
45.9
14.6
hempie
56.8+10
18.1
29.0
0.8
31.9
15.0
Luke Dickinson
82.8+10
28.4
10.7
25.2
19.9
24.6
Olympian95
46.8+10
16.4
32.3
19.3+10
9.0
22.6
priceofdawn
75.1
16.4+10
7.0+10
11.3
29.9
24.6
Right Leaning
46.8+10
32.4
29.0
9.3
33.9
16.6
robbienicoll
52.8+10
20.4
29.0
10.1
43.9
13.6
Robert Waller
58.8+10
14.4
31.0
4.7
35.9
22.6
Third Chill
46.8+10
16.1
31.0
13.9
13.0
8.6
Tony Otim
63.6+10
12.8
34.8
1.7
32.3
14.2
Yellow Peril
76.8+10
16.4
33.0
5.3
23.9
12.6
Total
751.7+100
251.6+10
347.5+10
121.5+10
377.1
220.0
Priceofdawn originally added to 90% in both Epsom & Ewell and Luton thereby gaining 2 x 10 additional faults. However, he corrected the figures for Luton at 10.12 am but kept the original ones for Epsom & Ewell. This then incurs 10 additional faults for a late entry at Luton, which I have as the prediction.
Congratulations to Andrew for both week and month to date, and for being the only one under 400 after a very tricky 16 polls. However, I would say it is remarkably close how the rest of us also-rans are, so 12 out of 13 in the 400's. In the normal way you might think after 16 out of 19 in the bag and just the final 3 to go, it was all decided, but this time the last 3 elections could thoroughly mess up the final order.
Congratulations to Andrew for both week and month to date, and for being the only one under 400 after a very tricky 16 polls. However, I would say it is remarkably close how the rest of us also-rans are, so 12 out of 13 in the 400's. In the normal way you might think after 16 out of 19 in the bag and just the final 3 to go, it was all decided, but this time the last 3 elections could thoroughly mess up the final order.
Thankyou Yellowperil, Anything can, and probably will, still happen.
Looking back, I had a generally mediocre week and then one real stinker, which was OSM- don't know whether I confess that to my family down there. Ok pretty well everybody caught a cold on that one, but I totally failed to read the strong Indy performance and didn't pick up the strong presence of Claire Wright in that campaign, so overestimated the effect that the disqualification of the previous incumbent. I think in general I am inclined to overestimate the effect of a failed incumbency-it has happened to me before. Has anybody made a study of the impact of disqualifications on subsequent by-elections?
Looking back, I had a generally mediocre week and then one real stinker, which was OSM- don't know whether I confess that to my family down there. Ok pretty well everybody caught a cold on that one, but I totally failed to read the strong Indy performance and didn't pick up the strong presence of Claire Wright in that campaign, so overestimated the effect that the disqualification of the previous incumbent. I think in general I am inclined to overestimate the effect of a failed incumbency-it has happened to me before. Has anybody made a study of the impact of disqualifications on subsequent by-elections?
I fancied an Independent win in Ottery and wish I’d gone a bit stronger for them. I wonder whether failed incumbency matters less for Independent types? If a party councillor fails then the voter thinks I’m not voting for that party again because the last councillor was useless. People who are voting Independent may not draw the same links to the previous councillor because the person is perhaps a bigger factor and that person is different.
Widespread Independent success to my mind often seems to come in areas where one of the main parties has a dominance. - Blaenau Gwent, Mansfield ( at the time), East Devon. Where there might be an initial issue, but then supporters of the other parties are more readily persuadable to vote Independent because their chosen party never wins, and any Independent is a better prospect than the dominant party, and then with action and success you start to attract some voters from the dominant party.
I think Claire Wright’s politics are left of centre- but is able to portray the non political Community campaigner at both local elections and general elections in what is basically a very affluent area. She is the County Councillor for this area, although voting Independent is not new as I think she succeeded Roger Giles who was an Independent CC for 25 years
Looking back, I had a generally mediocre week and then one real stinker, which was OSM- don't know whether I confess that to my family down there. Ok pretty well everybody caught a cold on that one, but I totally failed to read the strong Indy performance and didn't pick up the strong presence of Claire Wright in that campaign, so overestimated the effect that the disqualification of the previous incumbent. I think in general I am inclined to overestimate the effect of a failed incumbency-it has happened to me before. Has anybody made a study of the impact of disqualifications on subsequent by-elections?
I fancied an Independent win in Ottery and wish I’d gone a bit stronger for them. I wonder whether failed incumbency matters less for Independent types? If a party councillor fails then the voter thinks I’m not voting for that party again because the last councillor was useless. People who are voting Independent may not draw the same links to the previous councillor because the person is perhaps a bigger factor and that person is different.
Widespread Independent success to my mind often seems to come in areas where one of the main parties has a dominance. - Blaenau Gwent, Mansfield ( at the time), East Devon. Where there might be an initial issue, but then supporters of the other parties are more readily persuadable to vote Independent because their chosen party never wins, and any Independent is a better prospect than the dominant party, and then with action and success you start to attract some voters from the dominant party.
I think Claire Wright’s politics are left of centre- but is able to portray the non political Community campaigner at both local elections and general elections in what is basically a very affluent area. She is the County Councillor for this area, although voting Independent is not new as I think she succeeded Roger Giles who was an Independent CC for 25 years
I think you may be right about the public being less concerned with previous incumbency in the case of an independent, and it may be significant in this case that the candidate was billed as Independent rather than EDA, though he seems to have been very much within the EDA family. Indeed EDA has a lot of the characteristics of a conventional political party. Undoubtedly they have been very successful at squeezing the alternative left of centre vote whether Lib Dem, Green or Labour, as well as hoovering up a substantial part of the more centrist Tory vote. Indeed had I been living in the area I would have been tempted, I guess - would certainly have been voting for Claire in the GE.
I fancied an Independent win in Ottery and wish I’d gone a bit stronger for them. I wonder whether failed incumbency matters less for Independent types? If a party councillor fails then the voter thinks I’m not voting for that party again because the last councillor was useless. People who are voting Independent may not draw the same links to the previous councillor because the person is perhaps a bigger factor and that person is different.
Widespread Independent success to my mind often seems to come in areas where one of the main parties has a dominance. - Blaenau Gwent, Mansfield ( at the time), East Devon. Where there might be an initial issue, but then supporters of the other parties are more readily persuadable to vote Independent because their chosen party never wins, and any Independent is a better prospect than the dominant party, and then with action and success you start to attract some voters from the dominant party.
I think Claire Wright’s politics are left of centre- but is able to portray the non political Community campaigner at both local elections and general elections in what is basically a very affluent area. She is the County Councillor for this area, although voting Independent is not new as I think she succeeded Roger Giles who was an Independent CC for 25 years
I think you may be right about the public being less concerned with previous incumbency in the case of an independent, and it may be significant in this case that the candidate was billed as Independent rather than EDA, though he seems to have been very much within the EDA family. Indeed EDA has a lot of the characteristics of a conventional political party. Undoubtedly they have been very successful at squeezing the alternative left of centre vote whether Lib Dem, Green or Labour, as well as hoovering up a substantial part of the more centrist Tory vote. Indeed had I been living in the area I would have been tempted, I guess - would certainly have been voting for Claire in the GE.
It will be interesting for next years all out East Devon’s elections whether they brand themselves as EDA or as Independents,
i dont know if the Conservatives are particularly bad and/or were complacent in East Devon.
Post by middleenglander on Sept 22, 2018 12:49:33 GMT
For Week 3 - amended
Authority
East Devon
Epsom & Ewell
Luton
Suffolk Coastal
Winchester
Wyre Forest
Ward
Ottery St Mary Rural
Nonsuch
Limbury
Westhaston & Westleton
Upper Meon Valley
Bewdley & Rock
andrewp
42.8
14.1
32.0
6.7
25.9
18.6
David Boothroyd
52.8+10
22.1
26.0
3.9
31.9
11.6
greenrobinhood
49.1
24.1
26.0
9.3
45.9
14.6
hempie
56.8+10
18.1
30.0
0.8
31.9
15.0
Luke Dickinson
82.8+10
28.4
11.4
25.2
19.9
24.6
Olympian95
46.8+10
16.4
32.7
19.3+10
9.0
22.6
priceofdawn
75.1
16.4+10
8.0+10
11.3
29.9
24.6
Right Leaning
46.8+10
32.4
30.0
9.3
33.9
16.6
robbienicoll
52.8+10
20.4
30.0
10.1
43.9
13.6
Robert Waller
58.8+10
14.4
32.0
4.7
35.9
22.6
Third Chill
46.8+10
16.1
32.0
13.9
13.0
8.6
Tony Otim
63.6+10
12.8
35.8
1.7
32.3
14.2
Yellow Peril
76.8+10
16.4
34.0
5.3
23.9
12.6
Total
751.7+100
251.6+10
360.3+10
121.5+10
377.1
220.0
Priceofdawn originally added to 90% in both Epsom & Ewell and Luton thereby gaining 2 x 10 additional faults. However, he corrected the figures for Luton at 10.12 am but kept the original ones for Epsom & Ewell. This then incurs 10 additional faults for a late entry at Luton, which I have as the prediction.
Whilst posting the analysis of the party performances on the 20 September thread, I noticed I had taken the initial Luton Liberal Democrat vote of 334 as per the tweet and not the correct 344; David Boothroyd did post the correct result a few minutes later. It makes a difference of around 1 additional fault for most.
I think you may be right about the public being less concerned with previous incumbency in the case of an independent, and it may be significant in this case that the candidate was billed as Independent rather than EDA, though he seems to have been very much within the EDA family. Indeed EDA has a lot of the characteristics of a conventional political party. Undoubtedly they have been very successful at squeezing the alternative left of centre vote whether Lib Dem, Green or Labour, as well as hoovering up a substantial part of the more centrist Tory vote. Indeed had I been living in the area I would have been tempted, I guess - would certainly have been voting for Claire in the GE.
It will be interesting for next years all out East Devon’s elections whether they brand themselves as EDA or as Independents,
i dont know if the Conservatives are particularly bad and/or were complacent in East Devon.
Probably all of those things!
However I think there is an underlying radical streak lurking in a lot of rural Devon , alongside the old Tory squirearchy and the nouveau riche incomers. It turns up from time to time - I think back to the days of the Aclands and the Foots and seminal events like the Torrington by-election. There are a few Tories who can plug into that tradition,say the present member for Totnes, and sometimes the Lib Dems have been able to build on it, but it remains sturdily independent. East Devon is simply the place where they have been able ,to a degree, to get an act together.
It will be interesting for next years all out East Devon’s elections whether they brand themselves as EDA or as Independents,
i dont know if the Conservatives are particularly bad and/or were complacent in East Devon.
Probably all of those things!
However I think there is an underlying radical streak lurking in a lot of rural Devon , alongside the old Tory squirearchy and the nouveau riche incomers. It turns up from time to time - I think back to the days of the Aclands and the Foots and seminal events like the Torrington by-election. There are a few Tories who can plug into that tradition,say the present member for Totnes, and sometimes the Lib Dems have been able to build on it, but it remains sturdily independent. East Devon is simply the place where they have been able ,to a degree, to get an act together.
The largest village in Ottery St Mary Rural is West Hill I believe, which is a slightly unusual Devon village, largely post war big houses in big plots.
Its interesting that the Independents/ EDA haven’t yet got going in the East Devon wards that are in the Tiverton and Honiton constituency. I have heard that Neil Parish is a much more diligent local MP than Hugo Swire and I wonder if that is a slight factor- Parish is a farmer and has a local accent. Swire is an old Etonian.
However I think there is an underlying radical streak lurking in a lot of rural Devon , alongside the old Tory squirearchy and the nouveau riche incomers. It turns up from time to time - I think back to the days of the Aclands and the Foots and seminal events like the Torrington by-election. There are a few Tories who can plug into that tradition,say the present member for Totnes, and sometimes the Lib Dems have been able to build on it, but it remains sturdily independent. East Devon is simply the place where they have been able ,to a degree, to get an act together.
The largest village in Ottery St Mary Rural is West Hill I believe, which is a slightly unusual Devon village, largely post war big houses in big plots.
Its interesting that the Independents/ EDA haven’t yet got going in the East Devon wards that are in the Tiverton and Honiton constituency. I have heard that Neil Parish is a much more diligent local MP than Hugo Swire and I wonder if that is a slight factor- Parish is a farmer and has a local accent. Swire is an old Etonian.
The largest village in the ward but very atypical. I guessed upthread that that was where the Tory vote would remain solid, and its where their candidate came from.
Claire is obviously interested in her own parliamentary constituency and I imagine any attempt to break out into T&H would need someone else with similar vision and drive to take them on, and I suspect there isn't anybody who fits that description.