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Post by middleenglander on Sept 3, 2018 0:10:17 GMT
It looks like 19 by-elections during September: * 4 on 6th * 6 on 13th * 6 on 20th and * 3 on 27th
11 of the by-elections are for District Councils - 5 with annual elections last held in May this year - 6 with elections every 4 years last held in 2015, although 1 ward had a by-election in 2017 and another one earlier this year 2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the last elections were in May 2 are in Unitary Authorities last held in 2015 1 in a London Borough where an election was held this May along with 1 each in a County Council, Welsh Council and Scottish Council with last elections in 2017.
Conservatives are defending 8 seats, 2 arising from the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation Labour defend 9 seats, following a death and 5 a resignation Localists defend 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 a disqualification for non-attendance
Conservatives are contesting all 19 by-elections, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 15, Green 14, UKIP 5, SNP 1 with 8 Independents contesting 4 seats along with 2 No Descriptions, 2 Women's Equality, 1 Bus Pass Elvis, 1 Libertarian, 1 Nottingham Independent and 1 Resident - a total of 88 candidates for the 19 seats
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of by-election.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,638
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 3, 2018 20:20:17 GMT
It's a long time since I've tried this, so I'm not expecting much first time out...
Carlisle: Lab 60.2; Con 26.7; UKIP 6.7; Grn 6.4 Cumbria: Lab 59.8; Con 28.2; UKIP 6.1; Grn 5.9 Fife: Con 35.7; SNP 30.4; Lab 16.1; LD 4.9; Grn 4.7; Ind C 3.8; Ind M 3.6; Lib 0.8 Tameside: Lab 62.7; Con 27.2; Grn 10.1
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Post by lukedickinson on Sept 4, 2018 0:45:24 GMT
First time here also.
Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7. Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6. Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5. Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14.
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,980
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 4, 2018 0:49:11 GMT
First time here also. Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7. Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6. Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5. Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14. Welcome and good luck! (though not too much ![:P](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png) )
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,980
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 4, 2018 0:55:38 GMT
Denton Holme (Carlisle): Lab 60 Con 24 UKIP 9 Grn 7 Denton Holme (Cumbria): Lab 64 Con 24 UKIP 7 Grn 5 Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (Fife): Con 30 Lab 20 SNP 18 LD 10 Ind M 8 Grn 7 Ind C 6ScotLib 1 Ashton Waterloo (Tameside): Lab 67 Con 28 Grn 5
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 5, 2018 10:53:00 GMT
First time here also. Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7. Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6. Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5. Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14. Welcome. Love that set of initials, btw
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 5, 2018 18:41:50 GMT
Carlisle: Lab 56, Con 28, Grn 12, UKIP 4. Cumbria: Lab 54, Con 30, Grn 10, UKIP 6. Fife: Con 33, SNP 30, Lab 19, LD 5, IND C 4, IND M 4, Grn 4, ScotLib: 1 Tameside: Lab 55, Con 33, Grn 12.
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 5, 2018 18:43:38 GMT
First time here also. Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7. Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6. Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5. Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14. Welcome ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) BTW you forgot to put Scottish Libertarian on your Fife prediction. May be worth changing it soon so you don't incur any penalty points.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2018 18:51:49 GMT
Carlisle: Lab 55, Con 30, Grn 10, UKIP 5. Cumbria: Lab 50, Con 32, Grn 13, UKIP 5. Fife: Con 35, SNP 16, Lab 20, LD 10, IND C 5, IND M 3, Grn 6, ScotLib: 5 Lab win after 6 Tameside: Lab 60, Con 25, Grn 15
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 5, 2018 20:00:34 GMT
Denton Holme, Cumbria: Con 24, Lab 64, Green 6, UKIP 6 Denton Holme, Carlisle: Con 23, Lab 65, Green 7, UKIP 5 Ashton Waterloo, Tameside: Con 30, Lab 60, Green 10 Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay, Fife: Con 29, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 7, SNP 27, Libertarian 0.5, Ind (Collins) 7, Ind (MacIntyre) 4.5 - SNP to win on transfers
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 5, 2018 20:31:34 GMT
Denton Holme (Carlisle): Lab 62 Con 27 UKIP 5 Grn 6 Denton Holme (Cumbria): Lab 60 Con 29 UKIP 5 Grn 6 Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (Fife): Con 34 Lab 16 SNP 28 LD 12 Ind M 1 Grn 2 Ind C 5 ScotLib 2 - Con win Ashton Waterloo (Tameside): Lab 60 Con 30 Grn 10
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Post by andrewp on Sept 5, 2018 21:11:25 GMT
Carlisle Denton Holme Lab 61 Con 25 Green 8 UKIP 6 Cumbria Denton Holme Lab 58 Con 29 Green 8 UKIP 5 Fife Inverkeithling and Dalgety Bay Con 34 SNP 27 Lab 20 Lib Dem 6 ind Collins 6 Green 3 Ind Macintyre 3 Lib 1 Tameside Ashton Waterloo Lab 63 Con 27 Green 10
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Post by greenhert on Sept 5, 2018 22:16:32 GMT
Carlisle BC, Denton Holme: Labour 64, Conservative 24, Green 6, UKIP 6. Cumbria CC, Denton Holme: Labour 62, Conservative 26, Green 7, UKIP 5. Fife UA, Inverkeithling & Dalgety Bay (1st preference votes): Conservative 35, SNP 28, Labour 17, Independent Collins 8, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent MacIntyre 3, Libertarian 1. Tameside MBC, Ashton Waterloo: Labour 58, Conservative 31, Green 11.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 6, 2018 0:28:29 GMT
CARLISLE Denton Holme: Lab 56, C 25, UKIP 12, GP 7 CUMBRIA Denton Holme: Lab 56, C 30, UKIP 8, GP 6 FIFE Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay: SNP 35, C 32, Lab 20, Ind Collins 4, L Dem 3, SGP 3, Ind Macintyre 2, SLP 1 TAMESIDE Ashton Waterloo: Lab 59, C 27, GP 14
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 6, 2018 1:13:35 GMT
Carlisle, Denton Holme: Con 27, Lab 61, Green 7, UKIP 5 Cumbria, Denton Holme: Con 30, Lab 60, Green 6, UKIP 4 Tameside, Ashton Waterloo:Con 25, Lab 65,Green 10 Fife, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (first prefs): Con 30, Lab 21, LD 9, Green 3,SNP 29, Ind Collins 4, Ind Mcintyre 3, Libertarian 1, Con to win on transfers
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Post by hempie on Sept 6, 2018 7:34:34 GMT
Carlisle, Denton Holme: Lab 62, Con 26,Green 7, UKIP 5 Cumbria, Denton Holme: Lab 61, Con 27, Green 7, UKIP 5 Tameside, Ashton Waterloo: Lab 58, Con 30, Green 12 Fife,Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay: Con 29, SNP 27, Lab 17, LD 12, Ind (Collins) 6, Green 3, Ind (MacIntyre) 5, Scot Lib 1 - Con to win on transfers
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Post by Right Leaning on Sept 6, 2018 7:34:49 GMT
Denton Holme (Carlisle): Lab 58, C 29, UKIP 8, Gn 5 Denton Holme (Cumbria): Lab 57, C 29 UKIP 8 Gn 6 Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (Fife): C 35, SNP 29, Lab 17, LD 10, Ind (Collins) 3, Gn 3, ScotLib 2Ind (McIntyre) 1, - Con win Ashton Waterloo (Tameside): Lab 62 C 30 Gn 8
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Post by olympian95 on Sept 6, 2018 7:45:54 GMT
Tameside: Lab 53, Con 32, Green 15
Cumbria - Denton (County): Lab 47, Con 38, UKIP 9, Green 6
Carlisle - Denton (district): Lab 51, Con 31, Green 10, UKIP 8
Fife: Con 33, SNP 21, Lab 20, LD 9, Ind (Collins) 6, Green 5, Ind (MacIntyre) 4, Libertarian 2
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 6, 2018 20:04:48 GMT
14 entries this week with Luke Dickenson making a maiden appearance, Tony Otim returning after more than 2 years absence and Yellow Peril after last month's sojourn away whilst polmapsinfouk has retreated as he said he would. Yellow Peril gets 1 additional fault for adding to 101% in Carlisle, Denton Holme.
Carlisle, Denton Holme: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 20% (Olympian95) to 40% (robbienicoll) Cumbria, Denton Holme: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 9% (Olympian95) to 42% (robbienicoll) Fife, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay: 13 have Conservative ahead on first preferences, David Boothroyd SNP ahead Tameside, Ashton Waterloo: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 21% (Olympian95) to 46% (Luke Dickinson)
We did say that Scottish by-elections should also predict who was the final winner of the seat as well as on first preferences. I forgot to include this when setting up the September competition whilst only 6 made such a prediction (4 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 SNP). This element will not therefore form part of the competition.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 6, 2018 21:01:05 GMT
For Week 1Authority | Carlisle | Cumbria | Fife | Tameside | Week 1 | Week 1 | Ward | Denton Holme | Denton Holme | Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay | Ashton Waterloo | fault | position | andrewp |
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| 22.3 | 32.9 |
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| David Boothroyd |
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| 34.0+10 | 24.9 |
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| Europeanlefty |
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| 39.7 | 42.9 |
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| greenrobinhood |
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| 16.3 | 30.9 |
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| hempie |
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| 26.0 | 28.9 |
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| Luke Dickinson |
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| 32.1 | 27.0 |
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| Olympian95 |
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| 28.0 | 22.9 |
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| priceofdawn |
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| 35.7 | 22.9 |
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| Right Leaning |
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| 17.7 | 36.9 |
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| robbienicoll |
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| 28.0 | 32.9 |
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| Robert Waller |
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| 18.0 | 32.9 |
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| Third Chill |
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| 26.0 | 28.9 |
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| Tony Otim |
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| 20.9 | 32.7 |
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| Yellow Peril | +1 |
| 26.0 | 32.9 |
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| Total |
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| 370.4+10 | 430.4 |
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