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Post by olympian95 on Sept 13, 2018 7:58:00 GMT
Cambridge - Lab 49, LD 33, Green 10, Con 8
Charnwood - Con 40 LD 31, Lab 21, UKIP 5, Green 3
Lambeth: Lab 61, Green 24, LD 6, Con 4, Women’s Equality 3,
UKIP 2
New Forest: LD 43, Con 39, Lab 10, Ind 8
Maidstone Con 55, LD 31, Green 8, Lab 6
Pembrokeshire: Harvey 29, Con 24, Lab 19, Boucher 9, Bush 7
Edwards 5, Nutting 4 Williams 3
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 13, 2018 11:31:42 GMT
Back in the last century I used to do quite a lot a delivering and canvassing in the Headcorn area, and we had a couple of Lib Dem councillors there at that time, but if I remember correctly the ward boundaries were more limited in those days- don't think Sutton Valence was in the ward. As a councillor I served for several years on the liaison committee dealing with Headcorn (aka Lashenden) airfield, which had a big impact on my ward. I was the only district councillor on this committee, though a Headcorn parish councillor was also on there with me.
Headcorn itself is a typical commuter village and quite mixed socially and politically but many of the other villages in the ward are very different in character and much more stereotypically blue. It may matter a lot that the control of the council is so near the edge, with the Lib Dems having most of the town wards and hanging on to running the council by their finger tips with the help of independents.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2018 11:49:47 GMT
Back in the last century I used to do quite a lot a delivering and canvassing in the Headcorn area, and we had a couple of Lib Dem councillors there at that time, but if I remember correctly the ward boundaries were more limited in those days- don't think Sutton Valence was in the ward. As a councillor I served for several years on the liaison committee dealing with Headcorn (aka Lashenden) airfield, which had a big impact on my ward. I was the only district councillor on this committee, though a Headcorn parish councillor was also on there with me. Headcorn itself is a typical commuter village and quite mixed socially and politically but many of the other villages in the ward are very different in character and much more stereotypically blue. It may matter a lot that the control of the council is so near the edge, with the Lib Dems having most of the town wards and hanging on to running the council by their finger tips with the help of independents. I was interested to see whether you thought there was any chance of a Lib Dem gain in Headcorn? The predictions generally think there are reasonable chances of Lib Dem gains in the other 2 English Conservative seats this week, but less so here. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 13, 2018 12:28:35 GMT
Back in the last century I used to do quite a lot a delivering and canvassing in the Headcorn area, and we had a couple of Lib Dem councillors there at that time, but if I remember correctly the ward boundaries were more limited in those days- don't think Sutton Valence was in the ward. As a councillor I served for several years on the liaison committee dealing with Headcorn (aka Lashenden) airfield, which had a big impact on my ward. I was the only district councillor on this committee, though a Headcorn parish councillor was also on there with me. Headcorn itself is a typical commuter village and quite mixed socially and politically but many of the other villages in the ward are very different in character and much more stereotypically blue. It may matter a lot that the control of the council is so near the edge, with the Lib Dems having most of the town wards and hanging on to running the council by their finger tips with the help of independents. I was interested to see whether you thought there was any chance of a Lib Dem gain in Headcorn? The predictions generally think there are reasonable chances of Lib Dem gains in the other 2 English Conservative seats this week, but less so here. You may see I've been quite cautious, though maybe slightly more optimistic for the LDs here than the majority of the panel. We have a good candidate, well known and liked in Headcorn village, but the rest of the ward is tough going. And the state of the council will make it an important one for the Tories not to lose from their point of view. I haven't been able to go and help because of my domestic situation, but I have invested some money in this one! It's not impossible but my feeling on balance is its unlikely. Whether the other possibilities elsewhere are better, time will tell. My worry is that we have three (maybe even four if you count Cambridge) outside shots and we could finish up missing all of them |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2018 12:58:24 GMT
I was interested to see whether you thought there was any chance of a Lib Dem gain in Headcorn? The predictions generally think there are reasonable chances of Lib Dem gains in the other 2 English Conservative seats this week, but less so here. You may see I've been quite cautious, though maybe slightly more optimistic for the LDs here than the majority of the panel. We have a good candidate, well known and liked in Headcorn village, but the rest of the ward is tough going. And the state of the council will make it an important one for the Tories not to lose from their point of view. I haven't been able to go and help because of my domestic situation, but I have invested some money in this one! It's not impossible but my feeling on balance is its unlikely. Whether the other possibilities elsewhere are better, time will tell. My worry is that we have three (maybe even four if you count Cambridge) outside shots and we could finish up missing all of them interesting. yes, you could gain anywhere between zero and four! I think I rate your chances in Charneood and New Forest as more than outside shots. |
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Post by lukedickinson on Sept 13, 2018 17:28:40 GMT
Does anyone else want to tell him, or should I? go on,you do it! For crying out loud, I realised my mistake this morning. Incredibly embarrassed. Just ignore the last sentence please.  |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 13, 2018 17:33:53 GMT
13 entrants this week with nothing from Europeanlefty. priceofdawn gets 10 additional faults for adding to 110% in Lambeth, Luke Dickinson 2 additional faults for only adding to 98% in Charnwood whilst robbienicoll gets 1 for adding to 99% in New Forest.
Cambridge, Petersfield: 100% Labour hold, majority over Liberal Democrat from 9% (David Boothroyd) to 35% (robbienicoll)
Charnwood, Birstill and Wanlip: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, andrewp, Olympian95, priceofdawn & Tony Otim Conservative hold
Lambeth, Coldharbour: 100% Labour hold, majority from 13% (greenrobinhood over Green) to 60% (Robert Waller over Green)
Maidstone, Headcorn: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 20% (Yellow Peril over Liberal Democrat) to 59.5% (Tony Otim over Labour)
New Forest, Pennington: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd, Luke Dickinson & Right Leaning Conservative hold
Pembrokeshire, Pembroke St Mary North: 12 Independent Harvey gain from Conservative, Luke Dickinson Conservative hold
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 0:15:50 GMT
Given that I finished rock bottom last week and missed this week (thanks to IT issues), I'm going to withdraw for the remainder of the month. Hopefully, I'll be back for October.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2018 2:23:24 GMT
I was interested to see whether you thought there was any chance of a Lib Dem gain in Headcorn? The predictions generally think there are reasonable chances of Lib Dem gains in the other 2 English Conservative seats this week, but less so here. You may see I've been quite cautious, though maybe slightly more optimistic for the LDs here than the majority of the panel. We have a good candidate, well known and liked in Headcorn village, but the rest of the ward is tough going. And the state of the council will make it an important one for the Tories not to lose from their point of view. I haven't been able to go and help because of my domestic situation, but I have invested some money in this one! It's not impossible but my feeling on balance is its unlikely. Whether the other possibilities elsewhere are better, time will tell. My worry is that we have three (maybe even four if you count Cambridge) outside shots and we could finish up missing all of themThe one prediction I got right last night. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 14, 2018 6:03:26 GMT
You may see I've been quite cautious, though maybe slightly more optimistic for the LDs here than the majority of the panel. We have a good candidate, well known and liked in Headcorn village, but the rest of the ward is tough going. And the state of the council will make it an important one for the Tories not to lose from their point of view. I haven't been able to go and help because of my domestic situation, but I have invested some money in this one! It's not impossible but my feeling on balance is its unlikely. Whether the other possibilities elsewhere are better, time will tell. My worry is that we have three (maybe even four if you count Cambridge) outside shots and we could finish up missing all of themThe one prediction I got right last night. You were pretty accurate in your assessment of Headcorn as well |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 14, 2018 8:01:30 GMT
Very good week for olympian95 by the looks of it, was 13th last week, jumping right back into contention. Proving that the prediction competition is a marathon and not a sprint. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2018 8:37:56 GMT
Very good week for olympian95 by the looks of it, was 13th last week, j umping right back into contention. Proving that the prediction competition is a marathon and not a sprint.Quite. Very appropriate metaphors for an Olympian. Robert had a most unusually bad week this time, but I wouldn't put money on him still being in front by the end of September... |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2018 8:40:34 GMT
For Week 2| Authority | Cambridge | Charnwood | Lambeth | Maidstone | New Forest | Pembrokeshire | | Ward | Petersfield | Birstall Wanlip | Coldharbour | Headcorn | Pennington | Pembroke
St Mary North | andrewp | 17.5 | 41.5 | 37.1 | 24.3 | 12.4+10 | 38.5 | David Boothroyd | 17.4 | 61.0+10 | 16.4 | 26.3 | 35.6 | 49.7 | Europeanlefty | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | greenrobinhood | 17.4 | 57.0+10 | 20.5 | 38.3 | 16.4+10 | 47.2 | hempie | 14.8 | 57.0+10 | 17.6 | 18.3 | 14.4+10 | 48.2 | Luke Dickinson | 7.4 | 67.0+2+10 | 27.6 | 18.3 | 11.6 | 54.2+10 | Olympian95 | 6.8 | 37.9 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 14.4+10 | 49.2 | priceofdawn | 25.4 | 29.4 | 47.6+10 | 28.3 | 28.4+10 | 37.9 | Right Leaning | 10.6 | 55.0+10 | 49.1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 61.2 | robbienicoll | 32.8 | 53.5+10 | 31.1 | 18.8 | 23.4+10+1 | 51.6 | Robert Waller | 18.8 | 53.5+10 | 37.1 | 38.3 | 14.4+10 | 49.2 | Third Chill | 14.8 | 45.5+10 | 25.6 | 30.3 | 20.4+10 | 39.2 | Tony Otim | 26.2 | 27.0 | 23.5 | 48.5 | 19.0+10 | 45.8 | Yellow Peril | 12.8 | 57.0+10
| 29.1 | 22.8 | 12.4+10 | 53.2 | Total | 322.6 | 742.0+2+90 | 475.1+10 | 434.1 | 334.8+1+100 | 725+10 |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 14, 2018 9:06:49 GMT
For Weeks 1 & 2
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 2 | Weeks 1 & 2 | Weeks 1 & 2 |
| Faults | Faults | Position | faults | position | andrewp | 62.1 | 181.2 | 2nd | 243.3 | 1st | David Boothroyd | 94.9 | 216.3 | 9th | 311.2 | 13th | Europeanlefty | 104.6 | 600 |
| 704.6 | 14th | greenrobinhood | 58.3 | 216.7 | 10th | 275.0 | 5th | hempie | 62.9 | 190.1 | 3rd | 253.0 | 3rd | Luke Dickinson | 82.6 | 208.0 | 7th | 290.6 | 9th | Olympian95 | 103.8 | 142.1 | 1st | 245.9 | 2nd | priceofdawn | 92.7 | 216.9 | 11th | 309.6 | 11th | Right Leaning | 78.6 | 209.2 | 8th | 287.8 | 8th | robbienicoll | 78.0 | 232.1 | 13th | 310.1 | 12th | Robert Waller | 61.6 | 231.2 | 12th | 292.8 | 10th | Third Chill | 81.1 | 195.7 | 4th | 276.7 | 6th | Tony Otim | 66.3 | 199.9 | 5th | 266.2 | 4th | Yellow Peril | 70.4
| 207.2 | 6th | 277.6 | 7th | Total | 1,097.8 | 3,246.6 |
| 4,344.4 |
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 6 by-elections again next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday. We are away next Thursday so it will be Friday evening / Saturday before the official results can be posted.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2018 9:47:32 GMT
Very good week for olympian95 by the looks of it, was 13th last week, j umping right back into contention. Proving that the prediction competition is a marathon and not a sprint.Quite. Very appropriate metaphors for an Olympian. Robert had a most unusually bad week this time, but I wouldn't put money on him still being in front by the end of September... I think you meant to imply the opposite there? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 14, 2018 9:52:23 GMT
Congratulations to Olympian for this week and andrewp for the month so far.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2018 15:32:56 GMT
Quite. Very appropriate metaphors for an Olympian. Robert had a most unusually bad week this time, but I wouldn't put money on him not still being in front by the end of September... I think you meant to imply the opposite there? you were quite right -somehow the "not" had got lost and I've put it back now! Hampered by having broadband down for several hours today or I would have picked it up earlier! |
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Post by olympian95 on Sept 15, 2018 7:11:48 GMT
Thank you - after an appalling start to the month last week, I’m glad this this week was an improvement...!
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 15, 2018 7:20:30 GMT
Thank you - after an appalling start to the month last week, I’m glad this this week was an improvement...! Yes, the difference was this week everybody else was appalling! Well done, don't know how you managed to come through all that carnage relatively unscathed! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 17, 2018 20:28:47 GMT
East Devon: Con 40.3; Ind 27.6; LD 17.2; Grn 8.8; Lab 6.1
Epsom & Ewell: RA 65.4; Con 22.3; Lab 7.8; LD 4.5
Luton: Lab 55.7; Con 38.2; LD 6.1
Suffolk Coastal: Con 49.8; LD 40.6; Grn 9.6
Winchester: Con 60.3; LD 28.8; Lab 6.4; Grn 4.5
Wyre Forest: Con 45.2; Lab 38.5; LD 10.8; Grn 5.5
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