Prediction Competition - September 2018

[middleenglander]

It looks like 19 by-elections during September:
* 4 on 6th
* 6 on 13th
* 6 on 20th and
* 3 on 27th

11 of the by-elections are for District Councils
- 5 with annual elections last held in May this year
- 6 with elections every 4 years last held in 2015, although 1 ward had a by-election in 2017 and another one earlier this year
2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the last elections were in May
2 are in Unitary Authorities last held in 2015
1 in a London Borough where an election was held this May along with
1 each in a County Council, Welsh Council and Scottish Council with last elections in 2017.

Conservatives are defending 8 seats, 2 arising from the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation
Labour defend 9 seats, following a death and 5 a resignation
Localists defend 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 a disqualification for non-attendance

Conservatives are contesting all 19 by-elections, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 15, Green 14, UKIP 5, SNP 1 with 8 Independents contesting 4 seats
along with 2 No Descriptions, 2 Women's Equality, 1 Bus Pass Elvis, 1 Libertarian, 1 Nottingham Independent and 1 Resident
- a total of 88 candidates for the 19 seats

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of by-election.

[Tony Otim]

It's a long time since I've tried this, so I'm not expecting much first time out...

Carlisle: Lab 60.2; Con 26.7; UKIP 6.7; Grn 6.4
Cumbria: Lab 59.8; Con 28.2; UKIP 6.1; Grn 5.9
Fife: Con 35.7; SNP 30.4; Lab 16.1; LD 4.9; Grn 4.7; Ind C 3.8; Ind M 3.6; Lib 0.8
Tameside: Lab 62.7; Con 27.2; Grn 10.1

[lukedickinson]

First time here also.

Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7.
Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6.
Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5.
Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14.

[Deleted]

Sept 4, 2018 0:45:24 GMT lukedickinson said:

First time here also.

Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7.
Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6.
Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5.
Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14.

Welcome and good luck! (though not too much )

[Deleted]

Denton Holme (Carlisle): Lab 60 Con 24 UKIP 9 Grn 7
Denton Holme (Cumbria): Lab 64 Con 24 UKIP 7 Grn 5
Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (Fife): Con 30 Lab 20 SNP 18 LD  10 Ind M 8 Grn 7 Ind C 6ScotLib 1
Ashton Waterloo (Tameside): Lab 67 Con 28 Grn 5

[yellowperil]

Sept 4, 2018 0:45:24 GMT lukedickinson said:

First time here also.

Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7.
Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6.
Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5.
Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14.

Welcome. Love that set of initials, btw

[thirdchill]

Carlisle: Lab 56, Con 28, Grn 12, UKIP 4.
Cumbria: Lab 54, Con 30, Grn 10, UKIP 6.
Fife: Con 33, SNP 30, Lab 19, LD 5, IND C 4, IND M 4, Grn 4, ScotLib: 1
Tameside: Lab 55, Con 33, Grn 12.

[thirdchill]

Sept 4, 2018 0:45:24 GMT lukedickinson said:

First time here also.

Carlisle: Lab 58, Con 22, Grn 13, UKIP 7.
Cumbria: Lab 58, Con 24, Grn 12, UKIP 6.
Fife: Con 34, Lab 20, SNP 18, LDM 12, IND C 6, IND M 5, Grn 5.
Tameside: Lab 66, Con 20, Grn 14.

Welcome

BTW you forgot to put Scottish Libertarian on your Fife prediction. May be worth changing it soon so you don't incur any penalty points.

[Deleted]

Carlisle: Lab 55, Con 30, Grn 10, UKIP 5.
Cumbria: Lab 50, Con 32, Grn 13, UKIP 5.
Fife: Con 35, SNP 16, Lab 20, LD 10, IND C 5, IND M 3, Grn 6, ScotLib: 5 Lab win after 6
Tameside: Lab 60, Con 25, Grn 15

[robbienicoll]

Denton Holme, Cumbria: Con 24, Lab 64, Green 6, UKIP 6
Denton Holme, Carlisle: Con 23, Lab 65, Green 7, UKIP 5
Ashton Waterloo, Tameside: Con 30, Lab 60, Green 10
Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay, Fife: Con 29, Lab 19, LD 6, Green 7, SNP 27, Libertarian 0.5, Ind (Collins) 7, Ind (MacIntyre) 4.5 - SNP to win on transfers

[Robert Waller]

Denton Holme (Carlisle): Lab 62 Con 27 UKIP 5 Grn 6
Denton Holme (Cumbria): Lab 60 Con 29 UKIP 5 Grn 6
Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (Fife): Con 34 Lab 16 SNP 28 LD 12 Ind M 1 Grn 2 Ind C 5 ScotLib 2 - Con win
Ashton Waterloo (Tameside): Lab 60 Con 30 Grn 10

[andrewp]

Carlisle Denton Holme Lab 61 Con 25 Green 8 UKIP 6
Cumbria Denton Holme Lab 58 Con 29 Green 8 UKIP 5
Fife Inverkeithling and Dalgety Bay Con 34 SNP 27 Lab 20 Lib Dem 6 ind Collins 6 Green 3 Ind Macintyre 3 Lib 1
Tameside Ashton Waterloo Lab 63 Con 27 Green 10

[greenhert]

Carlisle BC, Denton Holme: Labour 64, Conservative 24, Green 6, UKIP 6.
Cumbria CC, Denton Holme: Labour 62, Conservative 26, Green 7, UKIP 5.
Fife UA, Inverkeithling & Dalgety Bay (1st preference votes): Conservative 35, SNP 28, Labour 17, Independent Collins 8, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent MacIntyre 3, Libertarian 1.
Tameside MBC, Ashton Waterloo: Labour 58, Conservative 31, Green 11.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CARLISLE Denton Holme: Lab 56, C 25, UKIP 12, GP 7
CUMBRIA Denton Holme: Lab 56, C 30, UKIP 8, GP 6
FIFE Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay: SNP 35, C 32, Lab 20, Ind Collins 4, L Dem 3, SGP 3, Ind Macintyre 2, SLP 1
TAMESIDE Ashton Waterloo: Lab 59, C 27, GP 14

[yellowperil]

Sept 6, 2018 1:09:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Carlisle, Denton Holme:   Con 27, Lab 61, Green 7, UKIP 5
Cumbria, Denton Holme: Con 30, Lab 60, Green 6, UKIP 4
Tameside, Ashton Waterloo:Con 25, Lab 65,Green 10

Fife, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (first prefs):Con 30, Lab 21, LD 9, Green 3,SNP 29,  Ind Collins 4, Ind Mcintyre 3, Libertarian 1,  Con to win on transfers

[hempie]

Carlisle, Denton Holme: Lab 62, Con 26,Green 7, UKIP 5
Cumbria, Denton Holme: Lab 61, Con 27, Green 7, UKIP 5
Tameside, Ashton Waterloo: Lab 58, Con 30, Green 12
Fife,Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay: Con 29, SNP 27, Lab 17, LD 12, Ind (Collins) 6, Green 3, Ind (MacIntyre) 5, Scot Lib 1 - Con to win on transfers

[Right Leaning]

Denton Holme (Carlisle): Lab 58, C 29, UKIP 8, Gn 5
Denton Holme (Cumbria): Lab 57, C 29 UKIP 8 Gn 6
Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (Fife): C 35, SNP 29, Lab 17, LD 10, Ind (Collins) 3, Gn 3, ScotLib 2Ind (McIntyre) 1,  - Con win
Ashton Waterloo (Tameside): Lab 62 C 30 Gn 8

[olympian95]

Tameside: Lab 53, Con 32, Green 15

Cumbria - Denton (County): Lab 47, Con 38, UKIP 9, Green 6

Carlisle - Denton (district): Lab 51, Con 31, Green 10, UKIP 8

Fife: Con 33, SNP 21, Lab 20, LD 9, Ind (Collins) 6, Green 5, Ind (MacIntyre) 4, Libertarian 2

[middleenglander]

14 entries this week with Luke Dickenson making a maiden appearance, Tony Otim returning after more than 2 years absence and Yellow Peril after last month's sojourn away whilst polmapsinfouk has retreated as he said he would. Yellow Peril gets 1 additional fault for adding to 101% in Carlisle, Denton Holme.

Carlisle, Denton Holme: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 20% (Olympian95) to 40% (robbienicoll)
Cumbria, Denton Holme: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 9% (Olympian95) to 42% (robbienicoll)
Fife, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay: 13 have Conservative ahead on first preferences, David Boothroyd SNP ahead
Tameside, Ashton Waterloo: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative from 21% (Olympian95) to 46% (Luke Dickinson)

We did say that Scottish by-elections should also predict who was the final winner of the seat as well as on first preferences. I forgot to include this when setting up the September competition whilst only 6 made such a prediction (4 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 SNP). This element will not therefore form part of the competition.

[middleenglander]

For Week 1

Authority	Carlisle	Cumbria	Fife	Tameside	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Denton Holme	Denton Holme	Inverkeithing     & Dalgety Bay	Ashton Waterloo	fault	position
andrewp			22.3	32.9
David Boothroyd			34.0+10	24.9
Europeanlefty			39.7	42.9
greenrobinhood			16.3	30.9
hempie			26.0	28.9
Luke Dickinson			32.1	27.0
Olympian95			28.0	22.9
priceofdawn			35.7	22.9
Right Leaning			17.7	36.9
robbienicoll			28.0	32.9
Robert Waller			18.0	32.9
Third Chill			26.0	28.9
Tony Otim			20.9	32.7
Yellow Peril	+1		26.0	32.9
Total			370.4+10	430.4