Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2018 20:03:46 GMT
3 Conservative defences this week:
BATH & NE SOMERSET UA, Kingsmead (Con died)
Candidates:
CRAIG, Sue (Liberal Democrat)
GILLINGS, Sharon Louise (Labour)
HOBSON, Tom (Conservative)
LUCAS. Eric Paul (Green)
2015: LD 967, 624; Con 872, 680; Grn 696, 625; Lab 404; UKIP 163
2011: LD 924, 620; Con 469, 417; Grn 457; Lab 367; UKIP 94
2007: LD 620, 601; Con 464, 450; Grn325, 272; Ind 95
2003: LD 615, 548; Con 537, 532; Grn 235
The Green candidate has stood in every election since 2003 and came 3rd last time out. The topped place Conservative in 2011 was the second LD elected in 2007.
LICHFIELD DC, Curborough (Con died)
Candidates:
BALL, Colin John (Labour)
CADWALLADER-ALLAN, Lee Mark (Liberal Democrat)
MARKS, Jayne Louise (Conservative)
2015: Con 795, 790; Lab 637, 612; UKIP 488
The Labour candidate was the second Labour candidate in 2015 and had also previously stood in the old 3 seat Curborough ward in 2011.
SHROPSHIRE DC, Shifnal South and Cosford, (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BIRD, Edward Francis (Conservative)
CAREY, David John (Independent)
HARTIN, Jolyon Thomas (Liberal Democrat)
MITCHELL, Andy (Independent)
2017: Con 668; Ind 368; LD 133
2013: Con 658; UKIP 443
2009: Con 731; LD 415; UKIP 235; Lab 151
Andy Mitchell was the runner-up last year and the UKIP candidate in 2013. David Carey was the Labour candidate in 2009.
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Post by froome on Jul 2, 2018 21:39:37 GMT
3 Conservative defences this week: BATH & NE SOMERSET UA, Kingsmead (Con died) Candidates: CRAIG, Sue (Liberal Democrat) GILLINGS, Sharon Louise (Labour) HOBSON, Tom (Conservative) LUCAS. Eric Paul (Green) 2015: LD 967, 624; Con 872, 680; Grn 696, 625; Lab 404; UKIP 163 2011: LD 9 24, 620; Con 469, 417; Grn 457; Lab 367; UKIP 94 2007: LD 620, 601; Con 464, 450; Grn325, 272; Ind 95 2003: LD 615, 548; Con 537, 532; Grn 235 The Green candidate has stood in every election since 2003 and came 3rd last time out. The topped place Conservative in 2011 was the second LD elected in 2007. Our candidate has also been our parliamentary candidate twice in Bath. As can be seen from the results, this is usually fairly close with most parties in with a shout. The ward covers a very diverse area, from the poorest end of the city centre to some of the richest housing in the city, including the Royal Crescent. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 3, 2018 8:24:05 GMT
Interesting that the leading LD is way ahead of their running mate since 2011. And the leading Tory last time similarly ahead of their partner. Also to note that while it is close, the LDs have generally won both seats, apart from 2015 when there was a General Election turnout in play.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 3, 2018 8:56:45 GMT
Interesting that the leading LD is way ahead of their running mate since 2011. And the leading Tory last time similarly ahead of their partner. Also to note that while it is close, the LDs have generally won both seats, apart from 2015 when there was a General Election turnout in play. The leading Lib Dem has come top in every election since 2003 and would thus seem to have built up quite a personal vote. He was close in votes to his running mate for the first two elections but she then defected to the Tories prior to 2011 when the coalition was maybe starting to tarnish the LD brand, which might go some way to explaining why the new running mate was 300 odd votes behind in 2011. 4 years of incumbency then don't seem to have helped the newbie much in 2015. Although lone UKIP, Labour and Green (in 2011) candidates may also be contributing to the discrepancy in votes for LDs and Conservatives. |
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Post by froome on Jul 3, 2018 17:00:02 GMT
Interesting that the leading LD is way ahead of their running mate since 2011. And the leading Tory last time similarly ahead of their partner. Also to note that while it is close, the LDs have generally won both seats, apart from 2015 when there was a General Election turnout in play. The leading Lib Dem has come top in every election since 2003 and would thus seem to have built up quite a personal vote. He was close in votes to his running mate for the first two elections but she then defected to the Tories prior to 2011 when the coalition was maybe starting to tarnish the LD brand, which might go some way to explaining why the new running mate was 300 odd votes behind in 2011. 4 years of incumbency then don't seem to have helped the newbie much in 2015. Although lone UKIP, Labour and Green (in 2011) candidates may also be contributing to the discrepancy in votes for LDs and Conservatives. This sort of split voting, with large differences between the votes for candidates of the same party, is very common here in Bath. A lot of voters deliberately choose to split their votes between parties rather than just vote for one party. I've observed all the counts since I moved here, and it is far more prevalent than even the raw numbers show, as some vote splitting obviously will even out to an extent. In Kingsmead the leading Lib Dem is the party's leader and is very popular amongst their supporters. They suffered badly when their other councillor defected, and haven't really ever recovered, and one of the surprises of the campaign in this by-election is the lack of visibility of the Lib Dem candidate and their support (a few posters have just started showing, but a week ago there were hardly any, in a ward where there used to be a sea of Lib Dem posters on some roads). They are also facing much more activity from the other parties, especially Labour, who have been campaigning as if they really believe they can win it (which would be a very surprising result but not a complete shock). |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 3, 2018 21:58:14 GMT
The leading Lib Dem has come top in every election since 2003 and would thus seem to have built up quite a personal vote. He was close in votes to his running mate for the first two elections but she then defected to the Tories prior to 2011 when the coalition was maybe starting to tarnish the LD brand, which might go some way to explaining why the new running mate was 300 odd votes behind in 2011. 4 years of incumbency then don't seem to have helped the newbie much in 2015. Although lone UKIP, Labour and Green (in 2011) candidates may also be contributing to the discrepancy in votes for LDs and Conservatives. This sort of split voting, with large differences between the votes for candidates of the same party, is very common here in Bath. A lot of voters deliberately choose to split their votes between parties rather than just vote for one party. I've observed all the counts since I moved here, and it is far more prevalent than even the raw numbers show, as some vote splitting obviously will even out to an extent. In Kingsmead the leading Lib Dem is the party's leader and is very popular amongst their supporters. They suffered badly when their other councillor defected, and haven't really ever recovered, and one of the surprises of the campaign in this by-election is the lack of visibility of the Lib Dem candidate and their support (a few posters have just started showing, but a week ago there were hardly any, in a ward where there used to be a sea of Lib Dem posters on some roads). They are also facing much more activity from the other parties, especially Labour, who have been campaigning as if they really believe they can win it (which would be a very surprising result but not a complete shock). I guess this is one of those rare places where if the Lib Dems can get the general election vote out they probably win. They may well know where it is as well, in which case a targeted campaign can do it. Probably the postal votes have already decided it and very likely not many of them are Labour... |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 4, 2018 1:03:00 GMT
This sort of split voting, with large differences between the votes for candidates of the same party, is very common here in Bath. A lot of voters deliberately choose to split their votes between parties rather than just vote for one party. I've observed all the counts since I moved here, and it is far more prevalent than even the raw numbers show, as some vote splitting obviously will even out to an extent. In Kingsmead the leading Lib Dem is the party's leader and is very popular amongst their supporters. They suffered badly when their other councillor defected, and haven't really ever recovered, and one of the surprises of the campaign in this by-election is the lack of visibility of the Lib Dem candidate and their support (a few posters have just started showing, but a week ago there were hardly any, in a ward where there used to be a sea of Lib Dem posters on some roads). They are also facing much more activity from the other parties, especially Labour, who have been campaigning as if they really believe they can win it (which would be a very surprising result but not a complete shock). I guess this is one of those rare places where if the Lib Dems can get the general election vote out they probably win. They may well know where it is as well, in which case a targeted campaign can do it. Probably the postal votes have already decided it and very likely not many of them are Labour... Getting the general election vote out for a local council by-election is rather difficult in the best of circumstances, though. |
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Post by froome on Jul 4, 2018 6:33:20 GMT
As it happens, both andrewp and greenchristian are correct. a) The postal vote is likely to have already ensured who wins here. I suspect it will account for getting on for about half the total vote. Here the postal ballot forms were sent out the next working day after nominations closed, so the effective time to campaign for postal votes was exceedingly short. Interestingly, quite a significant number of the postal votes are for foreign addresses. This may become more significant in wards like this, where there are a lot of city centre flats and a lot of very wealthy residents, as some of these will be people who have a home in Bath and qualify to vote here but actually live abroad. b) The Lib Dem organisation here was badly affected by the debacle of the 2015 GE campaign and result, and has only partly recovered, but in a ward like this, which they have held for many years, they will know where many of their voters are and will have campaigned accordingly. As will have the Conservatives, whose vote in this ward is probably more reliable. c) Getting GE voters out to vote will be extremely hard here, and their party allegiance is much less reliable. Lots of voters in this ward, and in many others in the city, are happy to vote for parties like ours locally but not nationally, and the messages they have had from the main two parties here for a tactical vote to keep the other out isn't likely to be that successful. It is also worth noting that there is a large transient population living in the numerous flats in the ward. Many of the GE voters have now moved, and a comparison of the electoral rolls also shows that very large numbers of these residents have simply disappeared from the register (there are some whole houses with lots of bedsits or flats that have no registered voters). And this population generally doesn't engage with local politics. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2018 13:27:25 GMT
As it happens, both andrewp and greenchristian are correct. a) The postal vote is likely to have already ensured who wins here. I suspect it will account for getting on for about half the total vote. Here the postal ballot forms were sent out the next working day after nominations closed, so the effective time to campaign for postal votes was exceedingly short. Interestingly, quite a significant number of the postal votes are for foreign addresses. This may become more significant in wards like this, where there are a lot of city centre flats and a lot of very wealthy residents, as some of these will be people who have a home in Bath and qualify to vote here but actually live abroad. If a lot of those are UK citizens in the EU and they actually bother to fill in and send back their postal vote it could be a huge bonus for the LibDems. |
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Post by froome on Jul 4, 2018 15:19:10 GMT
As it happens, both andrewp and greenchristian are correct. a) The postal vote is likely to have already ensured who wins here. I suspect it will account for getting on for about half the total vote. Here the postal ballot forms were sent out the next working day after nominations closed, so the effective time to campaign for postal votes was exceedingly short. Interestingly, quite a significant number of the postal votes are for foreign addresses. This may become more significant in wards like this, where there are a lot of city centre flats and a lot of very wealthy residents, as some of these will be people who have a home in Bath and qualify to vote here but actually live abroad. If a lot of those are UK citizens in the EU and they actually bother to fill in and send back their postal vote it could be a huge bonus for the LibDems. Some live in EU countries but many live elsewhere. I suspect if any party benefits from this vote it will be the Tories. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 4, 2018 17:12:52 GMT
Interesting to have a by-election in Curborough because we had one in the neighbouring ward of Stowe not long ago.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 4, 2018 18:04:08 GMT
As it happens, both andrewp and greenchristian are correct. a) The postal vote is likely to have already ensured who wins here. I suspect it will account for getting on for about half the total vote. Here the postal ballot forms were sent out the next working day after nominations closed, so the effective time to campaign for postal votes was exceedingly short. Interestingly, quite a significant number of the postal votes are for foreign addresses. This may become more significant in wards like this, where there are a lot of city centre flats and a lot of very wealthy residents, as some of these will be people who have a home in Bath and qualify to vote here but actually live abroad. b) The Lib Dem organisation here was badly affected by the debacle of the 2015 GE campaign and result, and has only partly recovered, but in a ward like this, which they have held for many years, they will know where many of their voters are and will have campaigned accordingly. As will have the Conservatives, whose vote in this ward is probably more reliable. c) Getting GE voters out to vote will be extremely hard here, and their party allegiance is much less reliable. Lots of voters in this ward, and in many others in the city, are happy to vote for parties like ours locally but not nationally, and the messages they have had from the main two parties here for a tactical vote to keep the other out isn't likely to be that successful. It is also worth noting that there is a large transient population living in the numerous flats in the ward. Many of the GE voters have now moved, and a comparison of the electoral rolls also shows that very large numbers of these residents have simply disappeared from the register (there are some whole houses with lots of bedsits or flats that have no registered voters). And this population generally doesn't engage with local politics. Well, two points: Firstly I find it hard to believe the Lib Dems were able to win here in the GE with a huge swing (mostly from Green, but also from the Tories assuming most former Kippers voted Tory) if their local organisation had collapsed. Secondly the incumbent sadly died on May 7th, leaving an ocean of time to campaign to postal voters for any Party with a competent local organisation (or at least the postal voters living in Bath, who I suspect are still a large majority) I have no idea what the Lib Dems have been doing here but to me it looks like an open goal in the circumstances, so if the Lib Dems do not win it may indeed suggest an incompetent or complacent local organisation... |
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Post by froome on Jul 4, 2018 21:12:46 GMT
As it happens, both andrewp and greenchristian are correct. a) The postal vote is likely to have already ensured who wins here. I suspect it will account for getting on for about half the total vote. Here the postal ballot forms were sent out the next working day after nominations closed, so the effective time to campaign for postal votes was exceedingly short. Interestingly, quite a significant number of the postal votes are for foreign addresses. This may become more significant in wards like this, where there are a lot of city centre flats and a lot of very wealthy residents, as some of these will be people who have a home in Bath and qualify to vote here but actually live abroad. b) The Lib Dem organisation here was badly affected by the debacle of the 2015 GE campaign and result, and has only partly recovered, but in a ward like this, which they have held for many years, they will know where many of their voters are and will have campaigned accordingly. As will have the Conservatives, whose vote in this ward is probably more reliable. c) Getting GE voters out to vote will be extremely hard here, and their party allegiance is much less reliable. Lots of voters in this ward, and in many others in the city, are happy to vote for parties like ours locally but not nationally, and the messages they have had from the main two parties here for a tactical vote to keep the other out isn't likely to be that successful. It is also worth noting that there is a large transient population living in the numerous flats in the ward. Many of the GE voters have now moved, and a comparison of the electoral rolls also shows that very large numbers of these residents have simply disappeared from the register (there are some whole houses with lots of bedsits or flats that have no registered voters). And this population generally doesn't engage with local politics. Well, two points: Firstly I find it hard to believe the Lib Dems were able to win here in the GE with a huge swing (mostly from Green, but also from the Tories assuming most former Kippers voted Tory) if their local organisation had collapsed.Secondly the incumbent sadly died on May 7th, leaving an ocean of time to campaign to postal voters for any Party with a competent local organisation (or at least the postal voters living in Bath, who I suspect are still a large majority) I have no idea what the Lib Dems have been doing here but to me it looks like an open goal in the circumstances, so if the Lib Dems do not win it may indeed suggest an incompetent or complacent local organisation... I didn't suggest it had collapsed, but in 2015 they did lose much of their activist base. By 2017 some of this had recovered, but across the wards this has been notably patchy (and looking from outside the party, this ward is one where the recovery appears to be poor). Without wishing to derail this thread into one looking back at the 2017 GE, I've stated before that the reason the Lib Dems won back Bath had less to do with their own actions here, and far more to do with the actions of national lobbying groups who chose Bath as the constituency to preach about the need for tactical voting. On some weekends there were 100 canvassers brought into the city by 38 Degrees who had just one message, that whatever people wanted to vote, at this election they had to vote Lib Dem to remove the Conservative. This resulted in more posters up that had been given out by them than were given out by any of the parties, and canvassing confirmed this. It was a thoroughly depressing experience. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jul 5, 2018 8:26:52 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 5, 2018 8:50:41 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 5, 2018 9:02:41 GMT
One of the curiosities of the last few years has been the continued expansion of retail floorspace well beyond increases in sales volume, despite the increasing challenge from on-line shopping. Crunch has now inevitably arrived. It's no surprise that no private sector backer can be found for a major retail development in a medium-sized town like Lichfield. While no doubt it is a good rallying call for Labour, they luckily have no chance of controlling Lichfield Council, so can safely argue for the impossible here. |
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Post by froome on Jul 5, 2018 20:53:17 GMT
I won't be at the Bath count, but would expect the result to be known by midnight if not earlier. It will take about 5 minutes to take the ballot boxes to the count, and it looks like, inc postal voters, there will be about 1,000 votes to count.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2018 22:01:59 GMT
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 5, 2018 22:07:27 GMT
Labour gain. Colin Ball (Lab) 309 Lee Cadwallader-Alllan (Lib Dem) 34 Jayne Marks (Cons) 169 |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 5, 2018 22:07:42 GMT
A Labour win in Curborough was possible- they had the only candidate who lived in the ward. |
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