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Post by middleenglander on Jul 7, 2018 8:48:31 GMT
Bath & North East Somerset, Kingsmead - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 545 | 41.1% | +10.0% | +12.7% | +1.2% | +4.9% | Labour | 326 | 24.6% | +11.6% | +10.2% | +8.7% | +7.4% | Conservative | 282 | 21.3% | -6.8% | -6.4% | +1.0% | +0.5% | Green | 172 |
| -9.4% | -10.6% | -6.8% | -8.4% | UKIP |
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| -5.3% | -5.8% | -4.1% | -4.4% | Total votes | 1,325 |
| 43% | 47% | 57% | 62% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 8½% / 9½% since 2015 but 0% / 2¼% since 2011 Council now 36 Conservative, 16 Liberal Democrat, 6 Labour, 5 Independent, 1 Green, 1 Vacant Lichfield, Curborough - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 309 | 60.4% | +27.2% | +27.6% | Conservative | 169 | 33.0% | -8.4% | -8.6% | Liberal Democrat | 34 | 6.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -25.4% | -25.6% | Total votes | 512 |
| 27% | 27% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 18% Council now 41 Conservative, 5 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat Shropshire, Shifnal South & Cosford - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Conservative | 362 | 38.3% | -18.8% | -21.5% | -9.4% | Independent Mitchell * | 210 | 22.2% | -9.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Cary ** | 207 | 21.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 167 | 17.7% | +6.3% | from nowhere | -9.4% | UKIP |
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| -40.2% | -15.3% | Labour |
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| -9.9% | Total votes | 946 |
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* UKIP candidate in 2013 ** Labour candidate in 2009 Swing Conservative to Independent Mitchell 4¾% since 2017 Council now 49 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 8 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Green, 1 Health Concern
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 7, 2018 8:54:57 GMT
Kingsmead is a pretty good Lib Dem ward. The Conservative winning one of the seats in 2015, was the only seat in the ward that the Lib Dem’s haven’t won since 1995 Yes, and that was with a GE turnout aiding the Tories. Plus there had been some turbulence in the local LD party during the coalition years. If that has settled down, then we should be able to hold both seats next year, all other things being e qual.I would be surprised if you didn’t hold both seats on those boundaries. There have been some close shaves in the ward in that time- the closest being in 2003 where the 2nd Lib Dem beat the leading Conservative by 11 votes As noted, there are boundary changes in BANES for next year. Consultation has closed with final recommendations being published on 11 August. In the draft recommendations, Bath moves to a pattern of a mix of 1 and 2 member wards. In the draft proposals Kingsmead ward is a proposed 2 member ward, with its gravity shifting to the East slightly. It gains the Royal Circus in addition to the Crescent. No idea of the political impact of the changes. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2018 9:07:00 GMT
As I'm sure Sibboleth will agree, that's a very poor result for the Tories in Shifnal. All three results were poor for them this time round. Next week is a busy one, so we might have an idea if this was just a blip or maybe something more? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2018 9:14:47 GMT
As I'm sure Sibboleth will agree, that's a very poor result for the Tories in Shifnal. All three results were poor for them this time round. Next week is a busy one, so we might have an idea if this was just a blip or maybe something more? yes a range of -6% to -27% |
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Post by froome on Jul 7, 2018 11:49:00 GMT
Yes, and that was with a GE turnout aiding the Tories. Plus there had been some turbulence in the local LD party during the coalition years. If that has settled down, then we should be able to hold both seats next year, all other things being e qual.I would be surprised if you didn’t hold both seats on those boundaries. There have been some close shaves in the ward in that time- the closest being in 2003 where the 2nd Lib Dem beat the leading Conservative by 11 votes As noted, there are boundary changes in BANES for next year. Consultation has closed with final recommendations being published on 11 August. In the draft recommendations, Bath moves to a pattern of a mix of 1 and 2 member wards. In the draft proposals Kingsmead ward is a proposed 2 member ward, with its gravity shifting to the East slightly. It gains the Royal Circus in addition to the Crescent. No idea of the political impact of the changes. The proposal for Kingsmead is that it will expand to take in almost all of the city centre (most of this area is currently in Abbey ward), extending north to The Circus (not Royal Circus), but it will lose the area north of there. It is difficult to judge how that will affect the political impact. The area it loses (which isn't large) is one where the Conservatives probably fare best, so the ward may well become out of their reach. Otherwise it will include numerous flats, some of which are social housing but most privately rented. It will also include a number of student housing blocks. Judging from Abbey results and having campaigned in this area when we had the by-election there, it is probably fairly evenly split between all four parties. If Labour campaign in the way they did in this by-election, the new ward may well be within their grasp. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 7, 2018 12:01:12 GMT
I would be surprised if you didn’t hold both seats on those boundaries. There have been some close shaves in the ward in that time- the closest being in 2003 where the 2nd Lib Dem beat the leading Conservative by 11 votes As noted, there are boundary changes in BANES for next year. Consultation has closed with final recommendations being published on 11 August. In the draft recommendations, Bath moves to a pattern of a mix of 1 and 2 member wards. In the draft proposals Kingsmead ward is a proposed 2 member ward, with its gravity shifting to the East slightly. It gains the Royal Circus in addition to the Crescent. No idea of the political impact of the changes. The proposal for Kingsmead is that it will expand to take in almost all of the city centre (most of this area is currently in Abbey ward), extending north to The Circus (not Royal Circus), but it will lose the area north of there. It is difficult to judge how that will affect the political impact. The area it loses (which isn't large) is one where the Conservatives probably fare best, so the ward may well become out of their reach. Otherwise it will include numerous flats, some of which are social housing but most privately rented. It will also include a number of student housing blocks. Judging from Abbey results and having campaigned in this area when we had the by-election there, it is probably fairly evenly split between all four parties. If Labour campaign in the way they did in this by-election, the new ward may well be within their grasp. Do you think there is a likelihood of Labour winning wards in Bath next year? |
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Post by froome on Jul 7, 2018 12:39:29 GMT
The proposal for Kingsmead is that it will expand to take in almost all of the city centre (most of this area is currently in Abbey ward), extending north to The Circus (not Royal Circus), but it will lose the area north of there. It is difficult to judge how that will affect the political impact. The area it loses (which isn't large) is one where the Conservatives probably fare best, so the ward may well become out of their reach. Otherwise it will include numerous flats, some of which are social housing but most privately rented. It will also include a number of student housing blocks. Judging from Abbey results and having campaigned in this area when we had the by-election there, it is probably fairly evenly split between all four parties. If Labour campaign in the way they did in this by-election, the new ward may well be within their grasp. Do you think there is a likelihood of Labour winning wards in Bath next year? Well, the won a seat in Twerton in 2015, and I would be very surprised if they lost that, and they may well gain the second there. The proposed changes to Twerton ward make it, if anything, even better for them (and I suspect the sitting Lib Dem councillor, who is popular, may well step down this time round). I wouldn't be surprised to see them win some other seats in the city, judging from this campaign. They have obviously engaged a proportion of their membership to campaign effectively, and they have the membership to cause the Lib Dems some difficulties. I would have thought that Kingsmead will be fairly high on their list of targets. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 9, 2018 11:48:37 GMT
I have no wish to see the Greens Party prosper electorally. In matters electoral I am pretty tribal! I am just curious. As for Richmond, there are differing views about the pact with the Greens but it is significant that in all the wards where the seats were shared the Liberals did better than the Green.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 9, 2018 16:40:22 GMT
I have no wish to see the Greens Party prosper electorally. In matters electoral I am pretty tribal! I am just curious. And nobody's saying otherwise. I asked my question because I'd like to understand why you think that we're underperforming. Understanding a bit more about how much, and where (either geographically or demographically), you would expect us to be doing better might help us satisfy your curiosity about why we're doing worse than you personally would expect. In particular, it would make it easier to work out if your perception of my party's failure is due to us actually being less effective than we "should" be, or to you making wrong assumptions about our prospects. Which doesn't necessarily tell us anything about how the two parties would have done in the wards where the pact was in effect. We would have had to have had a strong, and active, local campaign to win in those wards, with or without an electoral pact. So I would be very surprised if we hadn't at least come close to winning those seats without it. The only exception would have been if the absence of the pact changed one or both parties' decisions about which wards to target, or how much resources to put into their respective target wards. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 9, 2018 16:54:24 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 9, 2018 17:47:10 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass Right, but the vote split might have allowed Conservatives to get through. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 9, 2018 17:58:10 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass Right, but the vote split might have allowed Conservatives to get through. In most cases that’s unlikely - certainly in the wards the Greens won seats in. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 9, 2018 18:03:46 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass Right, but the vote split might have allowed Conservatives to get through. Sure but thats a totally different question |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 9, 2018 18:23:46 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass What's your evidence that the existence of Lib Dem paper candidates in the wards where we won seats would have changed the result? |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 9, 2018 18:31:34 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass What's your evidence that the existence of Lib Dem paper candidates in the wards where we won seats would have changed the result? Why on earth would we run paper candidates? Those seats would have been top targets. I’m reliably informed that you only campaigned in 2 of the wards where you had candidates. That puts you down to a maximum of 2 right off the bat. The only seat where you were even close to our candidates was Ham, Petersham & Richmond Riverside, and even there your candidate (who won the alphabet race) was over 100 votes behind our second candidate. There is no reason to think you would have got anyone elected in Richmond without our help, and to think otherwise is delusional. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 9, 2018 18:34:58 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass What's your evidence that the existence of Lib Dem paper candidates in the wards where we won seats would have changed the result? Where I live in Kirklees Lib Dem paper candidates get derisory votes pretty much in line with the General Election performance.. I doubt if Lib Dem paper candidates in Richmond would get 40% like in the General Election, but I bet they would get well over 10%, and most of those would have voted Green with no Lib Dem candidate.. Many people have a strong inclination to vote the same as they did the last time they voted... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 9, 2018 18:38:34 GMT
Dream on - you wouldn't have been close to winning any seats in Richmond if the Lib Dems didn't give you a free pass What's your evidence that the existence of Lib Dem paper candidates in the wards where we won seats would have changed the result? Others have answered already, but they wouldn't have been paper candidates in those wards obviously. in each of the wards where the Greens won a seat they won the third seat, some way behind the two winning Lib Dems. It's obvious that most of those who voted for the Green candidate would have voted for a third Lib Dem candidate given the option (along with hundreds of other voters who voted for the two available Lib Dem candidates but couldn't stomach voting for the Green) |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 9, 2018 18:40:48 GMT
Yes, and that was with a GE turnout aiding the Tories. Plus there had been some turbulence in the local LD party during the coalition years. If that has settled down, then we should be able to hold both seats next year, all other things being e qual.though it was a good result for labour too. Is it possibly labour can get the second seat? I think the Lib Dems in Kingsmead will be quite happy to see Labour in second place ahead of the real enemy, tbh! |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 9, 2018 19:21:45 GMT
The Lib Dems would certainly have won the 4 seats the Greens won in the absence of a pact. I would estimate from the results that there were 3-5 seats that the Lib Dems won that would have been Tory in the absence of the pact (East Sheen, Mortlake and Barnes Common, 1 or 2 in North Richmond and probably Hampton North). So the net result in seats for the Lib Dems is probably neutral, but they have representation in more wards, which can be seen as a plus, and have a weaker Tory opposition, which can be seen as another.
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