Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 6, 2018 8:54:50 GMT
Yes, the Lib Dem’s have never gained overall control of BANES, despite nearly always winning almost all the seats in Bath city. They have often run the council as a minority administration. There are 32 councillors elected in Bath and 33 from non Bath No of Lib Dem’s elected Bath. Non Bath Total 1995. 24. 3. 27 1999. 28. 2. 30 2003. 23. 6. 29 2007. 23. 3. 26 2011. 24. 6. 30 2015. 13. 2. 15 There ought to be a better term than "Non Bath" :Shower, perhaps  Well, as it's Bath and North East Somerset (BANES), NES ought to do, surely? |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 6, 2018 8:57:26 GMT
Interesting to see not only UKIP but Labour masquerading as Independents in Shropshire!
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 6, 2018 9:18:17 GMT
The Bath result is a another very poor result for the Green Party. Why is it doing so badly at local level?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 6, 2018 9:29:36 GMT
The Bath result is a another very poor result for the Green Party. Why is it doing so badly at local level? It is a poor result for us, no doubt about it (and also a very poor result for the Tories who had no competition on the right). I'm not sure if your question about local level is specific to Bath or asking about local elections more generally. If the latter, i'd say whilst we could definitely be doing better, we made gains in May when widely expected to have net losses and have had more by-election gains in the last year or so than the previous few years, so I'd dispute that we are doing so badly. If you mean Bath specific froome could probably offer more insight. |
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Post by justin124 on Jul 6, 2018 9:44:33 GMT
Bath is a seat which Labour has come close to winning in the past - in 1966 they were only a few hundred votes off beating the Tory Edward Brown. Moreover, at both 1974 elections there was a competitive three-way contest. Thereafter, Labour voters appear to have been voting tactically for the LibDems - until 2015 - but the underlying Labour vote is still likely to be quite substantial. Perhaps the effort made re-this by election is some sign that Labour is beginning to take the seat seriously again.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 6, 2018 9:54:00 GMT
There ought to be a better term than "Non Bath" :Shower, perhaps Well, as it's Bath and North East Somerset (BANES), NES ought to do, surely? Oh yes,if you want to be serious,but I thought the bit of BANES that wasn't Bath and supported Rees-Mogg was best described as Shower,do I have to spell it out? And incidentally wasn't there a cider firm from not far away from there (Shepton Mallet?) called Showerings? Mind you Banes is a pretty good name for the local administration. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 6, 2018 10:00:06 GMT
Interesting to see not only UKIP but Labour masquerading as Independents in Shropshire! Though apparently the "Labour" Independent made little secret of his "national" sympathies whilst campaigning. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2018 10:24:50 GMT
Bath is a seat which Labour has come close to winning in the past - in 1966 they were only a few hundred votes off beating the Tory Edward Brown. Moreover, at both 1974 elections there was a competitive three-way contest. Thereafter, Labour voters appear to have been voting tactically for the LibDems - until 2015 - but the underlying Labour vote is still likely to be quite substantial. Perhaps the effort made re-this by election is some sign that Labour is beginning to take the seat seriously again. Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2018 10:28:05 GMT
Bath is a seat which Labour has come close to winning in the past - in 1966 they were only a few hundred votes off beating the Tory Edward Brown. Moreover, at both 1974 elections there was a competitive three-way contest. Thereafter, Labour voters appear to have been voting tactically for the LibDems - until 2015 - but the underlying Labour vote is still likely to be quite substantial. Perhaps the effort made re-this by election is some sign that Labour is beginning to take the seat seriously again. I did wonder that. Bath would probably have a Sympathetic to Corbyn vote. If Labour do get some traction and become competitive , the left may split and the seat go Conservative for a while, before Labour win for the first time- a la Southport. Labour winning, if it ever happens, is at least a few elections off and anything could happen in that time. At the moment it looks very safe for the LibDems |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2018 10:31:40 GMT
Bath is a seat which Labour has come close to winning in the past - in 1966 they were only a few hundred votes off beating the Tory Edward Brown. Moreover, at both 1974 elections there was a competitive three-way contest. Thereafter, Labour voters appear to have been voting tactically for the LibDems - until 2015 - but the underlying Labour vote is still likely to be quite substantial. Perhaps the effort made re-this by election is some sign that Labour is beginning to take the seat seriously again. Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. Of the 12 current LIb Dem seats, how many would you say could have been won with another candidate? Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, OXWAB, Edinburgh West? |
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Post by froome on Jul 6, 2018 10:32:15 GMT
The Bath result is a another very poor result for the Green Party. Why is it doing so badly at local level? It is a poor result for us, no doubt about it (and also a very poor result for the Tories who had no competition on the right). I'm not sure if your question about local level is specific to Bath or asking about local elections more generally. If the latter, i'd say whilst we could definitely be doing better, we made gains in May when widely expected to have net losses and have had more by-election gains in the last year or so than the previous few years, so I'd dispute that we are doing so badly. If you mean Bath specific froome could probably offer more insight. Fairly simple really. The 3 main parties were well organised for a by-election campaign, each with an office within or close by the ward and large teams to work every day. They effectively put out the message that, either a tactical vote was needed (in the last few days a lot of our potential voters said they had decided to vote 'tactically') or that a vote for us 'would be wasted'. We didn't have the resources to compete with this, especially when many people were voting in the mindset of a national election (yes Brexit did get mentioned more than once, as did Theresa May, as reasons for their vote). Come the 2019 elections, when the other parties won't be able to focus their resources in such a targeted way as they can in a by-election, we will have the opportunity to do better. Regarding this result, I was surprised the Tories slipped to third, which they must be bitterly disappointed with, particularly as they had councillors out all day yesterday getting their vote out. Labour now have a huge membership in the city and put a massive effort into this campaign, which I'm sure was good practice for their newer members for 2019. Their numbers of canvassers outnumbered the Lib Dems, which was remarkable, and the result paid off. While disappointed with our result, I'm relieved we didn't lose out more heavily and kept our base vote up. |
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Post by justin124 on Jul 6, 2018 10:32:49 GMT
Bath is a seat which Labour has come close to winning in the past - in 1966 they were only a few hundred votes off beating the Tory Edward Brown. Moreover, at both 1974 elections there was a competitive three-way contest. Thereafter, Labour voters appear to have been voting tactically for the LibDems - until 2015 - but the underlying Labour vote is still likely to be quite substantial. Perhaps the effort made re-this by election is some sign that Labour is beginning to take the seat seriously again. Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. I am far from sure! Nevertheless within living memory Labour has polled quite strongly in Bath despite never having won the seat.Had Don Foster failed to win back in 1992 Labour might well have challenged for at least second place here in 1997 and 2001.Of course, the fact of a Tory defeat encouraged Labour voters to continue their tactical voting - until that fantasy was broken by the Coalition. |
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Post by froome on Jul 6, 2018 10:38:31 GMT
Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. Of the 12 current LIb Dem seats, how many would you say could have been won with another candidate? Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, OXWAB, Edinburgh West? You need to remember that the Lib Dems actually deselected their own candidate here at the start of the election campaign (his 'standing down' was actually a deselection) and selected another one (and not the one their national party had hoped would be selected) after the campaign began. It was pretty obvious, as I've intimated before, that they would have won with anyone, regardless of candidate, in the circumstances of 2017. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jul 6, 2018 10:40:13 GMT
Shropshire DC, Shifnal South and Cosford – 5th July 2018
Con 362 [38.3%; -18.9%]
Ind 210 [22.2%; -9.3%]
Ind 207 [21.9%; +21.9%]
LD Jolyon Hartin 167 [17.7%; +6.3%]
Conservative hold
From ALDC
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2018 10:49:49 GMT
Shropshire DC, Shifnal South and Cosford – 5th July 2018 Con 362 [38.3%; -18.9%] Ind 210 [22.2%; -9.3%] Ind 207 [21.9%; +21.9%] LD Jolyon Hartin 167 [17.7%; +6.3%] Conservative hold From ALDC Ind Mitchell got 210 Ind Carey got 207 |
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Post by stananson on Jul 6, 2018 11:06:20 GMT
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 6, 2018 11:11:36 GMT
As I'm sure Sibboleth will agree, that's a very poor result for the Tories in Shifnal. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 6, 2018 11:23:36 GMT
Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. I am far from sure! Nevertheless within living memory Labour has polled quite strongly in Bath despite never having won the seat.Had Don Foster failed to win back in 1992 Labour might well have challenged for at least second place here in 1997 and 2001.Of course, the fact of a Tory defeat encouraged Labour voters to continue their tactical voting - until that fantasy was broken by the Coalition. The big change from split opposition to LDem (SDP)-Tory marginal happened in 1983. Since then Labour have never had a chance in Bath, and if they had got into second place Lib Dem votes would have split between them and Labour and they would not have held the seat easily like the Lib Dems did (although they might have won it in 1997 from a clear second place and then lost it in 2005 or 2010).
The Lib Dems fell back to third place or very distant second in 2015 in many of the seats they held in the southwest, and now Labour are the challengers, but Bath was not one of them. Most of those seats have too great an ABL vote to ever be won by Labour, so this is fantastic news for the Tories
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 6, 2018 12:06:01 GMT
As I'm sure Sibboleth will agree, that's a very poor result for the Tories in Shifnal. Particularly given that the division also includes Cosford. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2018 12:15:42 GMT
Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. I am far from sure! Nevertheless within living memory Labour has polled quite strongly in Bath despite never having won the seat.Had Don Foster failed to win back in 1992 Labour might well have challenged for at least second place here in 1997 and 2001.Of course, the fact of a Tory defeat encouraged Labour voters to continue their tactical voting - until that fantasy was broken by the Coalition. They might be able to build up a stronger local councillor base within the city in the near future, I'm sure. I'm reasonably confident that the Lib Dem parliamentary vote in Bath will hold up for a while yet - but in a different timeline, where Labour had emerged as a larger party than the Liberal Democrats in Bath in the 80s/90s, it's very believable that Labour would hold it now, and the Liberal Democrats wouldn't be a threat. The nature of the seat is probably best compared to Exeter and York Central. Likewise, if the SDP/Liberals had emerged ahead of Labour in the 80s in either of those seats, it's credible that they could be Lib Dem seats today. But alas, it wasn't to be. |
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