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Post by yellowperil on Jul 6, 2018 12:27:09 GMT
So, to summarise:
1) awful night for the Tories- lost two of their 3 defences, one to Labour, one to LDs, and in terms of lost vote share the one they held was the worst of the lot
2) good night for Lab gaining one seat , moving to solid second ahead of the Tories in the next, and even doing quite well with a proxy candidate masquerading as an Indy in the third
3)goodish night for LDs with a solid defence which was technically a gain and as good as could be expected elsewhere
4)bad night for Greens in their one seat which had some potential but failed to deliver
5) goodish night for people who wanted to forget their party labels and go Indy instead - at least doing better than if they had stood in their true colours, perhaps.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2018 12:27:42 GMT
Eh, I wouldn't be so sure. The Labour vote in 2017 was less than a third that of the Lib Dems - and unlike many other Lib Dem/Conservative marginals, Labour saw very little increase between the last two general elections - they still haven't recovered to 2005 levels yet, whilst the Lib Dems got a higher proportion than in 2005. For now, it's arguably the safest Lib Dem seat in England - although Twickenham probably beats it to that. Furthermore, it was comfortably won by the Lib Dems with a relatively unknown candidate - there are several current Lib Dem seats which would not have been won if the candidate was any other person. Of the 12 current LIb Dem seats, how many would you say could have been won with another candidate? Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, OXWAB, Edinburgh West? Edinburgh West is the most obvious one - the candidate was pretty much unknown, and although from my observations she's been hard-working and possibly has some sort of personal vote now, I don't think she did in 2017. Twickenham and Kingston were helped by the candidate, but I do think they could have been with a different candidate. As for OXWAB, Moran hadn't been the MP before, but she had been the candidate before, and she was the right fit for the seat IMO. Given how narrow it was, I don't think another candidate would have won it in 2017 - but it definitely would have been possible. I think Orkney and Shetland would have been won - Carmichael is very popular personally, but there is a strong liberal vote up there, and it was the LD seat with the largest % majority. It was very much to do with the candidates that East Dunbartonshire and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross remained seats where the Lib Dems were the principal anti-SNP vote. But now that that position was held in the 2017 GE, I think they'd both be winnable next time around with someone else - but probably with very low winning vote shares. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2018 12:35:22 GMT
Of the 12 current LIb Dem seats, how many would you say could have been won with another candidate? Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, OXWAB, Edinburgh West? Edinburgh West is the most obvious one - the candidate was pretty much unknown, and although from my observations she's been hard-working and possibly has some sort of personal vote now, I don't think she did in 2017. Twickenham and Kingston were helped by the candidate, but I do think they could have been with a different candidate. As for OXWAB, Moran hadn't been the MP before, but she had been the candidate before, and she was the right fit for the seat IMO. Given how narrow it was, I don't think another candidate would have won it in 2017 - but it definitely would have been possible. I think Orkney and Shetland would have been won - Carmichael is very popular personally, but there is a strong liberal vote up there, and it was the LD seat with the largest % majority. It was very much to do with the candidates that East Dunbartonshire and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross remained seats where the Lib Dems were the principal anti-SNP vote. But now that that position was held in the 2017 GE, I think they'd both be winnable next time around with someone else - but probably with very low winning vote shares. It would/ will be interesting to see what happens in Westmorland and Lonsdale with a different candidate. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 6, 2018 12:44:08 GMT
Of the 12 current LIb Dem seats, how many would you say could have been won with another candidate? Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, OXWAB, Edinburgh West? , and although from my observations she's been hard-working and possibly has some sort of personal vote now, I don't think she did in 2017. Twickenham and Kingston were helped by the candidate, but I do think they could have been with a different candidate. As for OXWAB, Moran hadn't been the MP before, but she had been the candidate before, and she was the right fit for the seat IMO. Given how narrow it was, I don't think another candidate would have won it in 2017 - but it definitely would have been possible. I think Orkney and Shetland would have been won - Carmichael is very popular personally, but there is a strong liberal vote up there, and it was the LD seat with the largest % majority. It was very much to do with the candidates that East Dunbartonshire and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross remained seats where the Lib Dems were the principal anti-SNP vote. But now that that position was held in the 2017 GE, I think they'd both be winnable next time around with someone else - but probably with very low winning vote shares. Christine Jardine was hardly unknown - she had stood in a Scottish parliament by-election in the North East and was the candidate who lost Gordon to Alex Salmond in 2015, but she was new to Edinburgh and her candidacy undoubtedly had little to do with the Lib Dem gain there - they would have done as well if not better with any candidate. With regard to East Dunbartonshire, it's possible another candidate might squeak in on tactical ant-SNP votes, they almost certainly wouldn't have done last year and I wouldn't be at all confident of your chances there without Swinson. The Lib Dems come a distant 4th consistently in the nearest equivalent Scottish Parliament constituency and haven't done better than that since 2003 (when Swinson herself was the candidate). |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2018 12:50:12 GMT
Edinburgh West is the most obvious one - the candidate was pretty much unknown, and although from my observations she's been hard-working and possibly has some sort of personal vote now, I don't think she did in 2017. It was very much to do with the candidates that East Dunbartonshire and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross remained seats where the Lib Dems were the principal anti-SNP vote. But now that that position was held in the 2017 GE, I think they'd both be winnable next time around with someone else - but probably with very low winning vote shares. Christine Jardine was hardly unknown - she had stood in a Scottish parliament by-election in the North East and was the candidate who lost Gordon to Alex Salmond in 2015, but she was new to Edinburgh and her candidacy undoubtedly had little to do with the Lib Dem gain there - they would have done as well if not better with any candidate. With regard to East Dunbartonshire, it's possible another candidate might squeak in on tactical ant-SNP votes, they almost certainly wouldn't have done last year and I wouldn't be at all confident of your chances there without Swinson. The Lib Dems come a distant 4th consistently in the nearest equivalent Scottish Parliament constituency and haven't done better than that since 2003 (when Swinson herself was the candidate). Quite right, I meant relatively unknown to Edinburgh You may well be right about East Dunbartonshire - although the local elections last year were also rather good (to the extent that the party had perhaps undernominated), and the Scottish Parliament is a little different, since whilst not 100% proportional, unionist votes don't get wasted if they don't rally around one party to defeat the SNP. Regardless, I think that Swinson will stand for at least 2 more general elections before deciding to stand down. |
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Post by justin124 on Jul 6, 2018 12:55:25 GMT
I am far from sure! Nevertheless within living memory Labour has polled quite strongly in Bath despite never having won the seat.Had Don Foster failed to win back in 1992 Labour might well have challenged for at least second place here in 1997 and 2001.Of course, the fact of a Tory defeat encouraged Labour voters to continue their tactical voting - until that fantasy was broken by the Coalition. The big change from split opposition to LDem (SDP)-Tory marginal happened in 1983. Since then Labour have never had a chance in Bath, and if they had got into second place Lib Dem votes would have split between them and Labour and they would not have held the seat easily like the Lib Dems did (although they might have won it in 1997 from a clear second place and then lost it in 2005 or 2010).
The Lib Dems fell back to third place or very distant second in 2015 in many of the seats they held in the southwest, and now Labour are the challengers, but Bath was not one of them. Most of those seats have too great an ABL vote to ever be won by Labour, so this is fantastic news for the Tories
I don't really disagree with that - though I tend to the view that had Bath been a straight fight between Tory and Labour - as was common in hundreds of seats back in the 1950s & 1960s - Labour probably would have won in both 1997 & 2001. |
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Post by justin124 on Jul 6, 2018 13:01:38 GMT
I am far from sure! Nevertheless within living memory Labour has polled quite strongly in Bath despite never having won the seat.Had Don Foster failed to win back in 1992 Labour might well have challenged for at least second place here in 1997 and 2001.Of course, the fact of a Tory defeat encouraged Labour voters to continue their tactical voting - until that fantasy was broken by the Coalition. They might be able to build up a stronger local councillor base within the city in the near future, I'm sure. I'm reasonably confident that the Lib Dem parliamentary vote in Bath will hold up for a while yet - but in a different timeline, where Labour had emerged as a larger party than the Liberal Democrats in Bath in the 80s/90s, it's very believable that Labour would hold it now, and the Liberal Democrats wouldn't be a threat. The nature of the seat is probably best compared to Exeter and York Central. Likewise, if the SDP/Liberals had emerged ahead of Labour in the 80s in either of those seats, it's credible that they could be Lib Dem seats today. But alas, it wasn't to be. In Exeter the Alliance was a clear second in both 1983 and 1987, but Labour was able to bounce back strongly there in 1992 - unlike in Bath. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 6, 2018 13:14:26 GMT
As I'm sure Sibboleth will agree, that's a very poor result for the Tories in Shifnal. Particularly given that the division also includes Cosford. Indeed, although I'd take a punt that Cosford turnout is much lower than Shifnal. I was very surprised by the LibDem performance considering the candidate lives fairly close to Knighton, I bet that wasn't on any leaflets. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 6, 2018 13:16:35 GMT
Christine Jardine was hardly unknown - she had stood in a Scottish parliament by-election in the North East and was the candidate who lost Gordon to Alex Salmond in 2015, but she was new to Edinburgh and her candidacy undoubtedly had little to do with the Lib Dem gain there - they would have done as well if not better with any candidate. With regard to East Dunbartonshire, it's possible another candidate might squeak in on tactical ant-SNP votes, they almost certainly wouldn't have done last year and I wouldn't be at all confident of your chances there without Swinson. The Lib Dems come a distant 4th consistently in the nearest equivalent Scottish Parliament constituency and haven't done better than that since 2003 (when Swinson herself was the candidate). Quite right, I meant relatively unknown to Edinburgh You may well be right about East Dunbartonshire - although the local elections last year were also rather good (to the extent that the party had perhaps undernominated), and the Scottish Parliament is a little different, since whilst not 100% proportional, unionist votes don't get wasted if they don't rally around one party to defeat the SNP. Regardless, I think that Swinson will stand for at least 2 more general elections before deciding to stand down. Jo Swinson was widely touted as the next Lib Dem leader when Tim Farron stood down. I am not a mind reader but it is at least possible that she is planning to step into Vince's shoes in a couple of year's time, now she has two children...
I don't think many people at all thought that East Dunbartonshire was winnable for the Lib Dems in 2017 until she decided to stand again. The signs (in the Holyrood elections for one) were that it had been abandoned as a target seat in favour of Edinburgh West and NE Fife. Now she has re-established a good majority, other people could win it. Although recent events have been good for the SNP, I think their days of hegemony are probably over and they will lose further seats next time, and seats like this will become safer for the incumbent
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 6, 2018 13:17:58 GMT
Particularly given that the division also includes Cosford. Indeed, although I'd take a punt that Cosford turnout is much lower than Shifnal. I was very surprised by the LibDem performance considering the candidate lives fairly close to Knighton, I bet that wasn't on any leaflets.  |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 6, 2018 14:14:37 GMT
Particularly given that the division also includes Cosford. Indeed, although I'd take a punt that Cosford turnout is much lower than Shifnal. I was very surprised by the LibDem performance considering the candidate lives fairly close to Knighton, I bet that wasn't on any leaflets. Does the candidate perhaps *work* in or near the ward? Also note that he had stood the last time the seat was contested, so may have had a little name recognition. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 6, 2018 14:16:40 GMT
Quite right, I meant relatively unknown to Edinburgh You may well be right about East Dunbartonshire - although the local elections last year were also rather good (to the extent that the party had perhaps undernominated), and the Scottish Parliament is a little different, since whilst not 100% proportional, unionist votes don't get wasted if they don't rally around one party to defeat the SNP. Regardless, I think that Swinson will stand for at least 2 more general elections before deciding to stand down. Jo Swinson was widely touted as the next Lib Dem leader when Tim Farron stood down. I am not a mind reader but it is at least possible that she is planning to step into Vince's shoes in a couple of year's time, now she has two children...
I don't think many people at all thought that East Dunbartonshire was winnable for the Lib Dems in 2017 until she decided to stand again. The signs (in the Holyrood elections for one) were that it had been abandoned as a target seat in favour of Edinburgh West and NE Fife. Now she has re-established a good majority, other people could win it. Although recent events have been good for the SNP, I think their days of hegemony are probably over and they will lose further seats next time, and seats like this will become safer for the incumbent
There's also the issue of the variable quality of SNP incumbents. My perception from far away was that John Nicholson (East Dunbartonshire) and Stephen Gethins (NE Fife) were 2 of the best SNP MPs, whereas the SNP had already imploded in Edinburgh West meaning no incumbent defending. With less strong incumbents in the first two, I think another Lib Dem candidate could have regained East Dunbartonshire, and the Lib Dems could have taken NE Fife. It did seem to be a pattern across Scotland where several of the seats the SNP lost had notably controversial or weak incumbents, even though they weren't the most marginal on paper. Maybe candidates do count for something after all. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 6, 2018 15:53:45 GMT
Edinburgh West(ern) has elected 6 different Lib Dems as either MP or MSP. The Lib Dems would have won it last year whoever their candidate was and whoever the SNP put up but the SNP certainly contributed to their own downfall.
East Dunbartonshire has elected Jo Swinson and that's it. The local results were good for the Lib Dems last year but may have slightly got a boost from the overlap with Swinson's GE campaign and they still got fewer seats than SNP and only level with the Tories and significantly fewer votes than either
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 6, 2018 21:49:56 GMT
The Bath result is a another very poor result for the Green Party. Why is it doing so badly at local level? It is a poor result for us, no doubt about it (and also a very poor result for the Tories who had no competition on the right). I'm not sure if your question about local level is specific to Bath or asking about local elections more generally. If the latter, i'd say whilst we could definitely be doing better, we made gains in May when widely expected to have net losses and have had more by-election gains in the last year or so than the previous few years, so I'd dispute that we are doing so badly. If you mean Bath specific froome could probably offer more insight. I was referring to the Green Party generally. Council by-elections are the ultimate case where any party that is locally active can concentrate resources and run a good campaign in winnable wards. (One reason why we often do well in selected Council by-elections). ie it's a sign of strength activity and enthusiasm on the ground. By and large the Green Party has been doing very badly almost everywhere, which I find odd. (By the way the net gains in May relied heavily on the four in Richmond where in effect the Greens won on LD coat-tails). I am not trying to make a political point here, I am genuinely puzzled. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Jul 6, 2018 22:11:35 GMT
It is a poor result for us, no doubt about it (and also a very poor result for the Tories who had no competition on the right). I'm not sure if your question about local level is specific to Bath or asking about local elections more generally. If the latter, i'd say whilst we could definitely be doing better, we made gains in May when widely expected to have net losses and have had more by-election gains in the last year or so than the previous few years, so I'd dispute that we are doing so badly. If you mean Bath specific froome could probably offer more insight. I was referring to the Green Party generally. Council by-elections are the ultimate case where any party that is locally active can concentrate resources and run a good campaign in winnable wards. (One reason why we often do well in selected Council by-elections). ie it's a sign of strength activity and enthusiasm on the ground. By and large the Green Party has been doing very badly almost everywhere, which I find odd. (By the way the net gains in May relied heavily on the four in Richmond where in effect the Greens won on LD coat-tails). I am not trying to make a political point here, I am genuinely puzzled. I doubt the Lib Dems would have done anywhere near as well in Richmond without the local co-operation agreed with the greens. Both mutally benefited to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Greens have have historically been poor at getting a local campaign rolling at short notice, local parties often lacking the skills and resources to run effective campaigns. The gains in May were mainly from individual activists who built local teams and really targeted the seats they won over months, even years of local campaigning. However, be careful what you wish for. I have certainly seen an improvement in electoral campaigning within the party over the last few years. There are 1 or 2 upcoming byelections where we should do better than the token vote we have seen in byelections since May. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 6, 2018 23:43:51 GMT
lackeroftalent has it pretty much exactly right. For most of the party's history we've been exceedingly bad at fighting elections. However, significant portions of the party are now starting to get the hang of effective targeting (and proper target campaigns are the reason we made net gains in May, and the reason for our historically high number of by-election gains over the previous electoral year). There are also significant differences between local parties, and entire regions, in how well we have learned how to run an effective campaign. Perhaps tonygreaves could expand on how much better he thinks we should be doing, and on what kinds of places he thinks we should be making more progress.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 7, 2018 6:40:31 GMT
lackeroftalent has it pretty much exactly right. For most of the party's history we've been exceedingly bad at fighting elections. However, significant portions of the party are now starting to get the hang of effective targeting (and proper target campaigns are the reason we made net gains in May, and the reason for our historically high number of by-election gains over the previous electoral year). There are also significant differences between local parties, and entire regions, in how well we have learned how to run an effective campaign. Perhaps tonygreaves could expand on how much better he thinks we should be doing, and on what kinds of places he thinks we should be making more progress. At any level of government the Greens and Lib Dems are both defying gravity to win a seat and hold it. At local level they both do it in essentially the same way - "community politics" in the sense of working hard and basically providing a relatively non-ideological alternative to one or other of the big two, campaigning for whatever is wanted locally. They are therefore fishing in the same pool of people who are prepared to switch from Lab or Con to a more neutral alternative, either because they generally like the alternative or to stop whichever larger party they dislike. Where the Greens and Lib Dems fight each other the result is that either Lab or Con win in most cases. I think both parties are beginning to realise that, even without any pacts. In a place like Bath where over 40% just voted Lib Dem in a general election things are different from normal and the Green vote can be squeezed even if they fight. That is why I called this by-election an open goal for the Lib Dems up thread - credibility was on their side. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 7, 2018 6:49:52 GMT
Kingsmead is a pretty good Lib Dem ward. The Conservative winning one of the seats in 2015, was the only seat in the ward that the Lib Dem’s haven’t won since 1995
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 7, 2018 8:23:40 GMT
Kingsmead is a pretty good Lib Dem ward. The Conservative winning one of the seats in 2015, was the only seat in the ward that the Lib Dem’s haven’t won since 1995 Yes, and that was with a GE turnout aiding the Tories. Plus there had been some turbulence in the local LD party during the coalition years. If that has settled down, then we should be able to hold both seats next year, all other things being e qual. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2018 8:36:27 GMT
Kingsmead is a pretty good Lib Dem ward. The Conservative winning one of the seats in 2015, was the only seat in the ward that the Lib Dem’s haven’t won since 1995 Yes, and that was with a GE turnout aiding the Tories. Plus there had been some turbulence in the local LD party during the coalition years. If that has settled down, then we should be able to hold both seats next year, all other things being e qual.though it was a good result for labour too. Is it possibly labour can get the second seat? |
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