Cardiff South & Penarth UK Parliament

[cibwr]

Now that Alun Michael has been selected as Labour candidate for Police and Crime Commissioner for South Wales there will be a by election (which DB suggests will be held on the same day).
How do people think this will go...

[erlend]

Safe Labour defence.

[Tony Otim]

2010: Result:

Lab 38.91%
Con 28.29%
LD 22.26%
PC 4.17%
UKIP 2.58%
Ind 1.46%
Grn 1.25%
Chr 0.64%
Comm 0.44%

Under current circumstances and given their strong performance in Cardiff this May, difficult to see that being anything other than a safe Labour hold.

More interesting will be arouns whose vote suffers most (LD or Conservative - I'd guess LD at this stage) and whether either Plaid or UKIP can save their deposit, which might be close in both cases.

[cibwr]

On a much reduced turn out I would imagine. I would expect the Lib Dem vote to fall, the Tory vote to be about the same or marginally less and an increase in the Plaid and UKIP vote. The greens would undoubtedly stand and I'd expect a few more but not many votes.

[greatkingrat]

Holding this on the same day as the PC election could distort the result if it leads to differential turnout within the police area. Admittedly in South Wales it is unlikely to matter, but it could be important in a more marginal area.

[Sibboleth]

Whoever wins will be only the third MP for the south Cardiff constituency since 1945.

[erlend]

Using last time as a starter
Con 26
LD 12
PC 7
UKIP 4
Grn 2

Which leaves me with Labour on 49%.

This is Wales where in second order elections PC will do better

LDs down 10% is a round number rather than a statement that it cant be 6 or 14. Tories a little stagnant but no didaster. UKIP benefitting from that a bit but CS&P is probably not where they would want to start.

[Pete Whitehead]

That seems pretty optimistic for the Tories

[erlend]

Although they should be down I assume that is mitigated by a point or 2 by the LD collapse and that some of their people who would previously have gone LD may not be willing to go for the other options on offer (PC/Lab/UKIP).

[East Anglian Lefty]

I'm not convinced that that much of the 2010 LD vote has gone to the Tories. Certainly YouGov's crosstabs don't seem to be picking that up. Nor does it really make sense intuitively - if you're a LIb Dem and the Tories are your second preference, surely you're likely to be happy with how the Lib Dems have been acting?

Sure, 2010 LD voters who like the Tories might be more likely to vote tactically, but as the seat won't be competitive where is their incentive to do so?

[Sibboleth]

Assembly result was: Labour 50.3, Con 27.5, Plaid 12.1, LDem 10.1

Only two non-Labour wards after this year, both at the Penarth end of the constituency (with the one - Sully - being beyond Penarth, of course).

[erlend]

Well if that were the result my errors for the 4 main parties is I think17.8. I assume the PC vote to be lower than in the Assembly. The Green vote would probably (my opinion) come mainly from Lab and PC. The UKIP vote from Con. I think therefore my figures are in the right ballpark. Quite a margin of error and even more between now and October.

[The Bishop]

I know this contest isn't likely to be for a while yet, but any selection news??

[Andrew_S]

Jun 18, 2012 10:59:49 GMT Tony Otim said:

2010: Result:

Lab 38.91%
Con 28.29%
LD 22.26%
PC 4.17%
UKIP 2.58%
Ind 1.46%
Grn 1.25%
Chr 0.64%
Comm 0.44%

Under current circumstances and given their strong performance in Cardiff this May, difficult to see that being anything other than a safe Labour hold.

More interesting will be arouns whose vote suffers most (LD or Conservative - I'd guess LD at this stage) and whether either Plaid or UKIP can save their deposit, which might be close in both cases.

I'd predict a swing of at least 15% from LD to Labour.

[AdminSTB]

Tony Blair in an interview in today's Guardian says he would like to be PM again if he was given the opportunity. Anyone think he'll go for a by-election in some Labour seat vacated by the PCC elections?

[East Anglian Lefty]

No, because Blair says a lot of bloody stupid things. That doesn't mean they bear any relation to reality.

[The Bishop]

No chance, Kris ;D

[Deleted]

Blair in Cardiff .... I doubt it ...

remember Kris only two MP's for Labour, any tory ones :-)

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 27, 2012 16:13:54 GMT AdminSTB said:

Tony Blair in an interview in today's Guardian says he would like to be PM again if he was given the opportunity. Anyone think he'll go for a by-election in some Labour seat vacated by the PCC elections?

My head says no ...




And my heart says

[glow=red,2,300]NO ! [/glow]

[andrea]

I believe Labour will select on July 14th while Plaid will choose next Monday.

2 declared names for the Labour nomination are
Stephen Doughty (a former SpAd to Douglas Alexander, shortlisted for Pontrypridd in 2010. Currently head of Oxfam’s Wales Office. Supported by Cardiff council leader)

Karen Wilkie (the acting general secretary of the Co-operative Party; ranked third in South Wales East list in 2011 Assembly elections)

The local press also mentioned 2 further names: Dan Lodge (a barrister living in Butetown, former SpAd to Hain, former Communications Officer for Welsh Labour at various levels) and Derek Walker (chief executive of the Wales Co-operative Centre).

Islington councillor (born in Wales) Kate Groucutt has confirmed her intention to join the racer. The press also mentioned former RAF commander Sophy Gardner (she was put on Feltham and Heston shortlist too). I wouldn't be surprised to see her shortlisted but without any connection to the area, I can't see her prevailing over the first 4 names suggested (all with connection to Cardiff and a good pedigree within the Labour movement).