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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 4, 2012 16:09:43 GMT
For the record, Plaid got 12% here in the Assembly last year.
Also, local election results this year with vote-averaging were:
Lab 48.2%, Con 17.1%, Plaid 14.3%, LD 11.5%, Oth 8.8%
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Post by the_bullies on Nov 4, 2012 17:19:01 GMT
These results look similar to what I would predict for the by-election result possibly slightly more for the Tories & slightly less for Plaid but the Labour total will be around the 50% mark they've worked hard there & the candidate is good.
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Post by erlend on Nov 4, 2012 20:18:04 GMT
For the record, Plaid got 12% here in the Assembly last year. Also, local election results this year with vote-averaging were: Lab 48.2%, Con 17.1%, Plaid 14.3%, LD 11.5%, Oth 8.8% What level of fullish slates were there for that? My impression is LDs limited in the Vale over the years. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Nov 4, 2012 20:33:33 GMT
For the record, Plaid got 12% here in the Assembly last year. Also, local election results this year with vote-averaging were: Lab 48.2%, Con 17.1%, Plaid 14.3%, LD 11.5%, Oth 8.8% What level of fullish slates were there for that? My impression is LDs limited in the Vale over the years. They stood in just 2 out of 6 Vale wards. I have some Cardiff South figures on an Excel spreadsheet. I produced them some months ago, so I don't recall exactly how I did them, but I think I used top vote in each ward. Cardiff part of the constituency: Lab 48.98% LD 15.48% Plaid 15.17% Con 10.76% Green 5.5% (all wards) UKIP 0.27% (1 ward) Vale part of the seat: Lab 37.84% Con 29.93% Plaid 11.4% UKIP 6.52% ( (1 ward where they won a seat) Green (1 ward) 2.9% LD (2 wards) 2.24% Total: Lab 45.05% Con 17.53% Plaid 13.84% LD 10.81% Green 4.6% UKIP 2.49% |
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Post by the_bullies on Nov 4, 2012 21:08:37 GMT
The LibDem vote in Cardiff is in decline they are very weak in Cardiff South & Penarth we gained seats in Penarth for the first time in a long time. In the Assembly elections last year we gained Cardiff North & overturned a large LibDem majority in Cardiff Central which was unexpected by them but not by us.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 4, 2012 22:43:05 GMT
The figures I gave are not accurate, as I accidentally missed out Sully and Llandough wards from the Vale of Glamorgan.
The Conservatives, Labour and Plaid had full slates everwhere, except that Labour and Plaid only put one candidate up in Sully. The Lib Dems skipped Llandough, Plymouth, Stanwell and Sully and only had one candidate in the other two Vale wards. There were a smattering of Greens in both parts of the seat, some far-left and Christian candidates in Cardiff and a couple of UKIP candidates in the Vale.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589 
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Post by cibwr on Nov 5, 2012 22:36:31 GMT
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Post by comicbookguy on Nov 6, 2012 0:18:29 GMT
I read both of those with a (very thick) generic male Welsh accent in my head. It triggered much amusement. Nothing at all against the Welsh mind you. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Nov 6, 2012 8:41:38 GMT
Well if you watch the video you don't have to imagine, you can hear Luke.....
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Nov 8, 2012 19:43:53 GMT
Not that its any indication of the vote, but on the No 9 bus through Grangetown I saw 6 Plaid posters, 1 Labour, 1 Green.
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Post by the_bullies on Nov 8, 2012 21:15:59 GMT
Where the Plaid posters in your house?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Nov 9, 2012 8:36:07 GMT
LOL I don't live in Cardiff South and Penarth any more so there are none.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Nov 9, 2012 8:37:39 GMT
BTW I have no idea why your Karma is heading in the same direction as mine, I haven't seen you post anything particularly obnoxious or make highly personal attacks on anyone - it all suggests that some people just smite people because they don't like their politics rather than for what they say.
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Post by the_bullies on Nov 9, 2012 20:10:26 GMT
I think it's a Welsh thing people just dont seem to like us much!  Anyway sorry to tease you mate. Actually my best friend was a Plaid Cymru Councillor, he lost his seat last May. He was a constant source of encouragement to me over the past 4 years when I lost my own County Council seat by 4 votes until I regained it on the same day he lost his. So it was a bittersweet day for me, a lovely man & a true gent originally from Blaenau Ffestiniog. Where his extended family still live. Friendship crosses political boundaries, I trusted him more than most my own side! Back to Cardiff South I havent picked up on any vibes in whats going on there because I'm trying not to ask my mp too much as eveytime I do he says 'can you come & canvass with us in Cardiff South on.....' But last time I spoke to him about this (& he's been there lots) he said we were doing very well & a lot better than in Corby which he says is split evenly (but that were ahead). I get the feeling Plaid will finish ahead of UKIP & the LIBDems but behind the Tories, if that helps. There's one back for you! ps do they have relegation? |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Nov 10, 2012 9:28:59 GMT
I suspect your assessment of the election is probably about right, if its any consolation then this blog agrees.... penartharbyd.wordpress.com/2012/11/09/predictions-for-15-november-2012/However it seems only some Welsh posters get automatic smiting - no real complaint but is a little vexing - and a bit pointless. And yes friendships cross party lines - I even have good tory friends :-) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 10, 2012 9:41:29 GMT
I suspect your assessment of the election is probably about right, if its any consolation then this blog agrees.... penartharbyd.wordpress.com/2012/11/09/predictions-for-15-november-2012/However it seems only some Welsh posters get automatic smiting - no real complaint but is a little vexing - and a bit pointless. And yes friendships cross party lines - I even have good tory friends :-) The prediction on that blog of a Conservative share of 24% seems far too high to me. That would be a decline of only 4% since 2010. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 13, 2012 15:15:35 GMT
Map of the 2012 local government results in the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency:  Following recent changes to ward boundaries the constituency also includes small parts (not shown on the map) of Dinas Powys and Pontprennau/Old St Mellons wards. Cartogram of those results, showing each ward in proportion to its 2011 parliamentary electorate:  |
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 13, 2012 15:37:28 GMT
Is there some interesting, historical reasoning behind the inclusion of Flat Holm in Butetown of all wards, or has it just been thrown in wherever since it doesn't have any permanent population?
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 13, 2012 15:57:46 GMT
I assume it is because the Docks are in Butetown ward and anyone travelling by boat from Flat Holm to Cardiff is likely to set foot in Butetown ward first.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 13, 2012 16:25:23 GMT
I wonder whether any of Shirley Bassey's family still lives in this constituency.
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Anyway sorry to tease you mate. Actually my best friend was a Plaid Cymru Councillor, he lost his seat last May. He was a constant source of encouragement to me over the past 4 years when I lost my own County Council seat by 4 votes until I regained it on the same day he lost his. So it was a bittersweet day for me, a lovely man & a true gent originally from Blaenau Ffestiniog. Where his extended family still live. Friendship crosses political boundaries, I trusted him more than most my own side! Back to Cardiff South I havent picked up on any vibes in whats going on there because I'm trying not to ask my mp too much as eveytime I do he says 'can you come & canvass with us in Cardiff South on.....' But last time I spoke to him about this (& he's been there lots) he said we were doing very well & a lot better than in Corby which he says is split evenly (but that were ahead). I get the feeling Plaid will finish ahead of UKIP & the LIBDems but behind the Tories, if that helps. There's one back for you! ps do they have relegation? 
