Bolton, Hulton Lab 44, Con 40, UKIP 8, Lib Dem 5, green 3 Milton Keynes Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope Con 51, Lab 29, Lib Dem 20 Rockford, Downhaul and Rarweth Lib Dem 71, Con 29 Bournemouth Throop and Muscliff Con 45, Lab 20, Lib Dem 12, Ind Lucas 10, Ind Wilson 10, Green 3
Bolton,Hulton: Con 45, Lab 41,UKIP 6, LD 5, Green 3 Bournemouth,Throop and Muscliff: Con 45, Lab 20, Ind Lucas 12, LD 11, Ind Wilson 7,Green 5 Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope: Con 47, LD 28, Lab 25 Rochford,Downhall and Rawreth: LD 69, Con 31
Surprised no-one has gone for a Lib Dem gain (or at least close to it) in Newport Pagnell. I might have been tempted to do that if I was still in the game
Are you not? Assumed we were waiting for your entry to come across having been pm'd to middleenglander? Would be very sorry if you are dropping out again having just returned as you set the standard in prediction we all aspire to.
As to the Newport Pagnell result, I am intrigued that you think a LD revival on that scale is a possibility. I considered it, but was a bit cautious having been caught quite badly overrating the LibDem advance in Thanet last week. I was one of at least 4 predictors to expect the LibDems to overtake Labour for second place ,and thought they might indeed lead in NP North, but expected the Hanslope bit to remain strongly Tory. If I'm wrong I would of course be delighted. We also await what ricmk.s insider view with some interest, and your comment has rekindled that interest.
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 10:53:50 GMT
There's no real Lib Dem history in that part of Thanet (or any part of it) so it was difficult for a candidate to establish themselves over what was a very large area and electorate from a standing start (and as you pointed out with Christmas intervening in the middle of the campaign). Newport Pagnell though was a very long standing Lib Dem stronghold, going back decades actually and it seems to me that the weakness of the last few years is aberrant. Also noted from Andrew's preview that the Lib Dem candidate is quite a serious figure (former councillor elsewhere, former parliamentary candidate) which might not necessarily cut any ice with the local electorate but does perhaps indicate that the party are making a serious push
Very useful to get your thinking aloud on this subject. Yes I did consider all the factors you mention but I don't think LDs have won in this particular ward since the Hanslope bit was added, which was presumably why it was added! The other tricky factor is the weather- the Christmas break may have some effect here too and the snow since which ricmk referred to may have hampered the campaign- anyway my gut instinct was to go cautiously and in the end you have to obey your gut. Mine probably not as good as yours, though, so if a Libdem breakthrough comes I will happily trade getting the forecast right for the political gain.
Post by middleenglander on Jan 18, 2018 22:01:07 GMT
There were 16 entries this week with k9 joining half way through the month but no CasualObserver or Pete Whitehead this week and again no SirBenjamin. robbienichol gets 11 additional faults for adding to 111% in Bournemouth and 4 additional faults for adding to 96% in Milton Keynes. Ruggerman had no prediction for the Green in Bournemouth but this incurs no faults as the total added to 100%. ricmk did not differentiate between the two Independents in Bournemouth but since the prediction was for each to obtain 12%, no faults are incurred in these circumstances.
ricmk's forecast in Milton Keynes was Conservative 52%, Liberal Democrat 26%, Labour 22%
Bolton, Hulton: 9 Labour hold, 7 Conservative gain; all had the majority either way 5% or less apart from WilliamHone who had 40% Labour majority Bournemouth, Throop & Muscliff: 14 Conservative gain from Independent with greenrobinhood Independent Wilson win and WlliamHone Labour gain Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: 15 Conservative hold with 8 Labour second, 6 Liberal Democrat and 1 tie, WilliamHone Labour gain Rochford, Downhall & Rawreth: 15 Liberal Democrat hold with share from 55% (k9) to 74% (Ruggerman) with WilliamHone Conservative gain