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Post by andrewp on Jan 18, 2018 7:47:10 GMT
Bolton, Hulton Lab 44, Con 40, UKIP 8, Lib Dem 5, green 3
Milton Keynes Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope Con 51, Lab 29, Lib Dem 20
Rockford, Downhaul and Rarweth Lib Dem 71, Con 29
Bournemouth Throop and Muscliff Con 45, Lab 20, Lib Dem 12, Ind Lucas 10, Ind Wilson 10, Green 3
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Post by olympian95 on Jan 18, 2018 8:08:08 GMT
Bolton MBC Hulton - Con 43, Lab 42, LD 8, Grn 2, UKIP 5
Bournemouth UA (Thropton & Muscliff) - Con 37, Lab 21 LD 12
Grn 3, Ind (Lucas) 17 Ind (Wilson) 10
MIlton Keynes UA (Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope) - Con 40, Lab 38, LD 22
Rochford DC (Downhaul & Rawreth)- LD 63, Con 37
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Post by hempie on Jan 18, 2018 8:33:06 GMT
Bolton,Hulton: Con 45, Lab 41,UKIP 6, LD 5, Green 3
Bournemouth,Throop and Muscliff: Con 45, Lab 20, Ind Lucas 12, LD 11, Ind Wilson 7,Green 5
Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope: Con 47, LD 28, Lab 25
Rochford,Downhall and Rawreth: LD 69, Con 31
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Post by Ruggerman on Jan 18, 2018 8:39:21 GMT
Rochford DC, Downhall and Rawreth: LD; 74, Con; 26
Bolton MB, Hulton: Con; 42, Lab; 41, UKIP; 9, Green; 6, LD; 2
Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope: Con; 51, LD; 26, Lab; 23
Bournemouth UA, Throop and Muscliff: Con; 33, LD; 25, Lab; 20, Ind (Lucas); 18, Ind (Wilson); 4
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 9:49:35 GMT
Surprised no-one has gone for a Lib Dem gain (or at least close to it) in Newport Pagnell. I might have been tempted to do that if I was still in the game
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 18, 2018 10:29:23 GMT
Surprised no-one has gone for a Lib Dem gain (or at least close to it) in Newport Pagnell. I might have been tempted to do that if I was still in the gameAre you not? Assumed we were waiting for your entry to come across having been pm'd to middleenglander? Would be very sorry if you are dropping out again having just returned as you set the standard in prediction we all aspire to. As to the Newport Pagnell result, I am intrigued that you think a LD revival on that scale is a possibility. I considered it, but was a bit cautious having been caught quite badly overrating the LibDem advance in Thanet last week. I was one of at least 4 predictors to expect the LibDems to overtake Labour for second place ,and thought they might indeed lead in NP North, but expected the Hanslope bit to remain strongly Tory. If I'm wrong I would of course be delighted. We also await what ricmk.s insider view with some interest, and your comment has rekindled that interest. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 10:53:50 GMT
There's no real Lib Dem history in that part of Thanet (or any part of it) so it was difficult for a candidate to establish themselves over what was a very large area and electorate from a standing start (and as you pointed out with Christmas intervening in the middle of the campaign). Newport Pagnell though was a very long standing Lib Dem stronghold, going back decades actually and it seems to me that the weakness of the last few years is aberrant. Also noted from Andrew's preview that the Lib Dem candidate is quite a serious figure (former councillor elsewhere, former parliamentary candidate) which might not necessarily cut any ice with the local electorate but does perhaps indicate that the party are making a serious push
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 18, 2018 12:05:00 GMT
Very useful to get your thinking aloud on this subject. Yes I did consider all the factors you mention but I don't think LDs have won in this particular ward since the Hanslope bit was added, which was presumably why it was added! The other tricky factor is the weather- the Christmas break may have some effect here too and the snow since which ricmk referred to may have hampered the campaign- anyway my gut instinct was to go cautiously
and in the end you have to obey your gut. Mine probably not as good as yours, though, so if a Libdem breakthrough comes I will happily trade getting the forecast right for the political gain.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 18, 2018 13:34:08 GMT
Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawreth: LD 58 Con 42 Bolton MB, Hulton: Lab 42 Con 40 UKIP 10 Green 5 LD 3 Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: Con 53 LD 25 Lab 22 Bournemouth UA, Throop and Muscliff: Con 38 Lab 19 Ind Lucas 17 Green 10 LD 9 Ind Wilson 7 |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 18, 2018 22:01:07 GMT
There were 16 entries this week with k9 joining half way through the month but no CasualObserver or Pete Whitehead this week and again no SirBenjamin.
robbienichol gets 11 additional faults for adding to 111% in Bournemouth and 4 additional faults for adding to 96% in Milton Keynes. Ruggerman had no prediction for the Green in Bournemouth but this incurs no faults as the total added to 100%. ricmk did not differentiate between the two Independents in Bournemouth but since the prediction was for each to obtain 12%, no faults are incurred in these circumstances.
ricmk's forecast in Milton Keynes was Conservative 52%, Liberal Democrat 26%, Labour 22%
Bolton, Hulton: 9 Labour hold, 7 Conservative gain; all had the majority either way 5% or less apart from WilliamHone who had 40% Labour majority
Bournemouth, Throop & Muscliff: 14 Conservative gain from Independent with greenrobinhood Independent Wilson win and WlliamHone Labour gain
Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: 15 Conservative hold with 8 Labour second, 6 Liberal Democrat and 1 tie, WilliamHone Labour gain
Rochford, Downhall & Rawreth: 15 Liberal Democrat hold with share from 55% (k9) to 74% (Ruggerman) with WilliamHone Conservative gain
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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 18, 2018 22:17:07 GMT
This is why you proof read when making last minute tinkering to predictions...
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 19, 2018 8:14:08 GMT
This is why you proof read when making last minute tinkering to predictions... but we can't see your entry atm ,will you let us see? don't be shy  |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 19, 2018 10:22:52 GMT
This is why you proof read when making last minute tinkering to predictions... but we can't see your entry atm ,will you let us see? don't be shy Yes of course! Rochford: LD - 71 Con - 29 Bolton: Lab - 44 Con - 42 UKIP - 6 LD - 5 Greens - 3 Milton Keynes: Con - 45 Lab - 42 LD - 9 Bournemouth: Con - 42 Lab - 31 LD - 19 Ind (Wilson) - 11 Ind (Lucas) - 6 Greens - 2 Was originally feeling a bit brave about a Labour gain in Milton Keynes but ended up chickening out! |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 19, 2018 22:08:03 GMT
Week 3:| Authority | Weeks 1 & 2 | Bolton
| Bournemouth
| Milton Keynes
| Rochford
| Week 3
| Week 3
| Weeks 1 to 3
| Weeks 1 to 3 | | Ward | faults
| Hulton | Throop &
Muscliff
| Newport Pagnell
North &
Hanslope
| Downall &
Rawreth
| faults
| position
| faults
| position | | AJS | 109.1
| 18.9+10
| 57.8+10
| 5.6
| 38.0
| 140.3
| 13th
| 249.4
| 12th
| andrewp | 87.6
| 18.9+10
| 49.8+10
| 8.5
| 12.0
| 109.2
| 6th
| 196.8
| 3rd
| Carlton43 | 120.7
| 17.0
| 49.8+10
| 14.0
| 36.0
| 126.9
| 9th
| 247.6
| 11th
| CasualObserver | 129.2
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 400 |
| 529.2 | 17th
| David Boothroyd | 88.0
| 20.9+10
| 49.2+10
| 18.0
| 14.0
| 122.1
| 8th
| 210.1
| 5th
| greenrobinhood | 92.1
| 18.9+10
| 25.2
| 10.5
| 14.0
| 78.6
| 1st
| 170.8
| 1st
| hempie | 98.8
| 9.8
| 55.8+10
| 12.0
| 16.0
| 103.7
| 2nd
| 202.4
| 4th
| k9
| 500.0
| 13.0
| 83.8+10
| 27.6
| 44.0
| 178.4
| 15th
| 678.4
| 18th
| Lancastrian | 78.3
| 22.9+10
| 41.8+10
| 16.0
| 34.0
| 134.8
| 12th
| 213.1
| 6th
| Pete Whitehead | 103.3
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 400 |
| 503.3 | 16th
| olympian95 | 101.4
| 15.8
| 47.8+10
| 26.5
| 28.0
| 128.1
| 10th
| 229.4
| 8th
| rickmk | 100.4
| 29.0+10
| 55.8+10
| 7.6
| 18.0
| 130.4
| 11th
| 230.8
| 9th
| Right Leaning | 123.9 | 15.9
| 63.8+10
| 8.4
| 10.0
| 108.2
| 5th
| 232.1
| 10th
| robbienicholl | 128.3 | 15.8+10
| 53.3+10+11 | 38.5+4 | 12.0
| 154.6
| 14th
| 282.9
| 13th
| Robert Waller | 74.3
| 11.8
| 63.8+10
| 6.0
| 14.0
| 105.7
| 4th
| 179.9
| 2nd
| Ruggerman | 202.6 | 15.4
| 65.7+10
| 7.6
| 6.0
| 104.7
| 3rd
| 307.3
| 14th
| SirBenjamin | 444.3
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 400 |
| 844.3 | 19th
| WilliamHone | 159.5
| 59.8+10
| 62.9+10
| 42.5+10
| 56.0+10
| 261.2
| 16th
| 420.7
| 15th
| Yellow Peril | 112.7
| 15.4+10
| 45.8+10
| 16.0
| 16.0
| 113.3
| 7th
| 225.9
| 7th
| Total faults | 2,854.6
| 619.1+90
| 1,172.2+11+150
| 565.4+4+10
| 668.4+10
| 3,300.1
|
| 6,154.7
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Objections please by 5 pm Sunday. There is just the 1 by-election in the last week of the month. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 20, 2018 9:17:10 GMT
Congratulations to greenrobinhood, our new leader of the year!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 8:29:55 GMT
Isle of Wight UA - Central Wight: Con 60, Lab 7, LD 25, Grn 5, UKIP 3
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Post by greenhert on Jan 24, 2018 20:39:22 GMT
Isle of Wight UA, Central Wight: Conservative 58, Green 22, Liberal Democrats 9, Labour 7, UKIP 4.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 24, 2018 21:36:08 GMT
Central Wight Con 57 Green 17 LD 15 Lab 6 UKIP 5
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Jan 24, 2018 23:38:20 GMT
Isle of Wight Con 53 Green 25 Lab 10
LD 10 UKIP 2
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 24, 2018 23:42:36 GMT
Isle of Wight: Con 49 Green 23 Lab 12 LD 11 UKIP 5
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