Prediction Competition - January 2018

[yellowperil]

Don't know whether anybody else has done a rough tot up of the scores to date , or whether that's too much with with seventeen or eighteen competitors in the frame .No doubt we will get official responses from Middleenglander in his good time but a quick shifty through to come to the unsurprising conclusion that I make it Robert just in front for the month, closely followed by Lancastrian and AndrewP- do others agree? ( I often get these wrong)

I completely blew it in Thanet and having started the week in front I think have dropped right out of the top 10!

[Robert Waller]

Yes, that fits with my own unofficial and rough figures.
However, because no one successfully identified all the trends, especially the differential LD performance in Thanet, it remains fairly close with much to play for over the rest of the month.

[middleenglander]

Week 2: Final

Authority	Week 1	Kent	Lancashire	Thanet	Wyre	Week 2	Week 2	Weeks 1 & 2	Weeks 1 & 2
Ward	faults	Birchington & Rural	Wyre Rural Central	Thanet Villages	Pressall	faults	position	faults	position
AJS	27.3	12.3	13.6	44.4	11.5	81.8	9th	109.1	10th
andrewp	17.3	16.3	7.6	40.9	5.5	70.3	5th	87.6	3rd
Carlton43	49.3	29.8	6.3	33.8	1.5	71.4	6th	120.7	12th
CasualObserver	41.7	25.8	24.4	28.3	9.1	87.6	12th	129.2	15th
David Boothroyd	27.7	23.0	7.9	21.9	7.5	60.3	3rd	88.0	4th
greenrobinhood	25.6	15.8	7.9	42.3	0.5	66.6	4th	92.1	5th
hempie	13.6	35.2	4.1	36.4	9.5	85.2	10th	98.8	6th
Lancastrian	22.0	18.2	1.7	32.9	3.5	56.3	2nd	78.3	2nd
Pete Whitehead	10.3	11.2	16.0	32.6	33.3	93.2	13th	103.5	9th
olympian95	29.7	31.2	6.1	22.9	11.5	71.7	7th	101.4	8th
rickmk	24.0	24.7	20.1	25.1	6.5	76.4	8th	100.4	7th
Right Leaning	37.3	9.8	13.6	55.7	7.5	86.6	11th	123.9	13th
robbienicholl	29.3	33.8	11.9	45.8	7.5	99.0	14th	128.3	14th
Robert Waller	23.7	9.8	3.7	28.6	8.5	50.6	1st	74.3	1st
Ruggerman	54.0	2.3+5	27.6+5	69.2+5	29.5+5	148.6	17th	202.6	17th
SirBenjamin	44.3	100	100	100	100	400		444.3	18th
WilliamHone	35.6	31.8	26.4	44.3	21.5	123.9	16th	159.5	16th
Yellow Peril	9.6	38.8	5.7	45.2	13.5	103.2	15th	112.7	11th
Total faults	521.9	469.6+5	304.7+5	750.7+5	287.7+5	1,832.7		2,354.6

Objections please by 5 pm Saturday.

There are 4 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.

Please note the Bolton, Hulton by-election is part of the prediction competition.

[ricmk]

Dumb question: we have the Newport North by-election in MK tomorrow. I have been involved (mostly by falling on my backside trying to deliver in the snow) and will do some knocking up tomorrow evening.

While a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, I'm nervous about putting a public prediction down for an election I've been involved with before close of polls, as the opposition might see it as insider information. Is there any mechanism for logging a prediction but not making it public till after polls have closed? Or skipping in these circumstances?

Thanks

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 17, 2018 13:11:00 GMT ricmk said:

Dumb question: we have the Newport North by-election in MK tomorrow. I have been involved (mostly by falling on my backside trying to deliver in the snow) and will do some knocking up tomorrow evening.

While a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, I'm nervous about putting a public prediction down for an election I've been involved with before close of polls, as the opposition might see it as insider information. Is there any mechanism for logging a prediction but not making it public till after polls have closed? Or skipping in these circumstances?

Thanks

I always PM my predictions to middle englander anyway - its a system I would prefer everyone used as it would prevent peoples' predictions being influenced by others, but that is up to them and few other people seem to want to do that. Anyway I would typically then post my predictions on the public thread shortly after the deadline for submissions had closed. On a couple of occasions when I was an agent for by-elections featured on the prediction competition, I have asked ME to keep my prediction private until close of poll

[Davıd Boothroyd]

When there's been a Westminster Council byelection I always send a PM and insist on my prediction being kept confidential until the polls have closed. It's always been respected.

[yellowperil]

Jan 17, 2018 13:11:00 GMT ricmk said:

Dumb question: we have the Newport North by-election in MK tomorrow. I have been involved (mostly by falling on my backside trying to deliver in the snow) and will do some knocking up tomorrow evening.

While a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, I'm nervous about putting a public prediction down for an election I've been involved with before close of polls, as the opposition might see it as insider information. Is there any mechanism for logging a prediction but not making it public till after polls have closed? Or skipping in these circumstances?

Thanks

I agree with other answers given- just pm to Middleenglander and make sure it isn't released to close of polls. I haven't had any elections to predict where I  have direct information in the sense of actually taking part, but sometimes a little knowledge can indeed be a dangerous thing- people in the midst of an election aren't always the ones best placed to forecast the outcome. In my experience, if you are actually hearing how some people are going to vote, its easy to forget there are thousands of other voters whose intentions are a mystery and it would be a rare local by-election indeed where you have managed to canvass a majority of the total electorate, so the answer is that your guess may be based on more information, but the chance that that guess is more likely to be skewed is greater than taking a dispassionate view from a distance. I say that with some feeling, as last week's Birchington result was a good example, as I think I had some small amount of insider information and as a result finished last out of 17 in that particular election. 

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week:

Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawreth: Liberal Democrats 70, Conservative 30.
Bolton MBC, Hulton: Labour 42, Conservative 40, UKIP 10, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3.
Bournemouth UA, Throop & Muscliff: Independent (Kieran Wilson) 35, Conservative 32, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 9, Independent (Peter Lucas) 7, Green 6.
Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: Conservative 50, Labour 30, Liberal Democrats 20.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 17, 2018 22:50:35 GMT greenhert said:

My predictions for this week:

Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawreth: Liberal Democrats 70, Conservative 30.
Bolton MBC, Hulton: Labour 42, Conservative 40, UKIP 10, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3.
Bournemouth UA, Throop & Muscliff: Independent 35, Conservative 32, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 9, Independent 7, Green 6.
Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: Conservative 50, Labour 30, Liberal Democrats 20.

You probably want to be a bit more specific about the Independent candidates in Bournemouth

[k9]

My first attempt:

Rochford: Liberal Democrat 55, Conservative 45. LD Hold.
Bolton: Conservative 43, Labour 40, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 3. Con gain.
Bournemouth: Conservative 35, Independent 25, Liberal Democrat 22, Labour 10, Green 5, Independent 3. Con gain.
Milton Keynes: Conservative 46, Liberal Democrat 36, Labour 18. Con hold.

[lancastrian]

Bolton: Lab 43 Con 38 UKIP 11 LD 5 Green 3
Bournemouth: Con 37 Ind(Wilson) 19 Lab 15 LD 13 Ind(Lucas) 10 Green 6
Milton Keynes: Con 45 Lab 30 LD 25
Rochford: LD 60 Con 40

[carlton43]

Bolton Con 41 Lab 40 UKIP 8 LD 7 G 4
MK Con 46 Lab 29 LD 25
Rochford LD 59 Con 41
Bournemouth Con 39 Lab 21 LD 20 Ind (W) 9 Ind (L) 8 G 3

[ricmk]

Thanks very much for the earlier advice, in light of that I'll go for:

Rochford: LD 68 Con 32

Bolton: Lab 40 Con 35 UKIP 18 Green 4 LD 3

Bournemouth: Con 40 Lab 15 Ind 12 Ind 12 LD 12 Green 9

Milton Keynes: withheld for now

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BOLTON Hulton: Lab 44, C 39, UKIP 9, GP 5, L Dem 3
BOURNEMOUTH Throop and Muscliff: C 45, Lab 29, Ind Lucas 8, Ind Wilson 7, L Dem 6, GP 5
MILTON KEYNES Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope: C 44, Lab 29, L Dem 27
ROCHFORD Downhall and Rawreth: L Dem 70, C 30

[Robert Waller]

BOLTON Hulton: Lab 43, C 44, UKIP 6, GP 2, L Dem 5
BOURNEMOUTH Throop and Muscliff: C 47, Lab 18, Ind Lucas 12, Ind Wilson 5, L Dem 13, GP 5
MILTON KEYNES Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope: C 50, Lab 25, L Dem 25
ROCHFORD Downhall and Rawreth: L Dem 70, C 30

[Andrew_S]

Jan 17, 2018 23:44:20 GMT k9 said:

My first attempt:

Rochford: Liberal Democrat 55, Conservative 45. LD Hold.
Bolton: Conservative 43, Labour 40, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 3. Con gain.
Bournemouth: Conservative 35, Independent 25, Liberal Democrat 22, Labour 10, Green 5, Independent 3. Con gain.
Milton Keynes: Conservative 46, Liberal Democrat 36, Labour 18. Con hold.

Hope you don't mind a bit of advice: you might like to include the names of the independent candidates when there's more than one of them standing.

[yellowperil]

Rochford, Downhall & Rawreth: LD 69, Con 31
Bolton, Hilton: Lab 45, Con 42, UKIP 8. Green 3, LD 2
Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell N & Hanslope: Con 45, LD 29, Lab 26
Bournemouth, Throop & Muscliff: Con 40, Lab 20, Ind Lucas 16, Ind Wilson 12, LD 7, Green 5

[Deleted]

Bolton MBC (Hulton) - Con 25, Lab 65, LD 7, Grn 2, UKIP 1
Bournemouth UA (Thropton & Muscliff) - Con 40, Lab 43, LD 4, Grn 4, Ind (Lucas) 5, Ind (Wilson) 4
MIlton Keynes UA (Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope) - Con 44, Lab 46, LD 10
Rochford DC (Downhaul & Rawreth)- Con 51, LD 49

[k9]

Jan 18, 2018 1:12:03 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jan 17, 2018 23:44:20 GMT k9 said:

My first attempt:

Rochford: Liberal Democrat 55, Conservative 45. LD Hold.
Bolton: Conservative 43, Labour 40, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 3. Con gain.
Bournemouth: Conservative 35, Independent 25, Liberal Democrat 22, Labour 10, Green 5, Independent 3. Con gain.
Milton Keynes: Conservative 46, Liberal Democrat 36, Labour 18. Con hold.

Hope you don't mind a bit of advice: you might like to include the names of the independent candidates when there's more than one of them standing.

Thanks, I believe Lucas will score higher.

[Right Leaning]

My predictions this week is

Rochford LD 72 Con 28

Bolton Con 43, Lab 39, LD 8, UKIP 6, Gn 4

Milton Keynes Con 55, Lab 27, LD 18

Bournemouth Con 51, Lab 15, Ind (Lucas) 10, LD 10, Ind 8, Gn 6

Thanks
Steve