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Post by yellowperil on Jan 4, 2018 12:19:33 GMT
Welcome back all you old timers and welcome all the newbies too! Starting the year with 16 competitors is great. Will be challenge enough to get into the top 10. I find myself in the unusual position of having the highest forecast Labour vote, but with hempie and Pete estimating only a bit lower maybe not as mad as all that- we will see.
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Post by Right Leaning on Jan 4, 2018 15:05:05 GMT
And I if it is not to late I will join in
Lab 52 Con 35 LD 7 UKIP 4 Gn 2
Steve
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 4, 2018 15:35:36 GMT
And I if it is not to late I will join in Lab 52 Con 35 LD 7 UKIP 4 Gn 2 Steve Middleenglander will have to decide - I think there was in the past (before my time )a bit of leeway granted for new posters being a bit late, but just over eight hours late may well come into the category of beyond all limits. A pity if so, as the new surge of interest in the competition is to be welcomed. If you are excluded do try again next week as the maximum penalty for a no-show is 100 points, and some of us might score more than that by getting our predictions wrong!
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Post by Ruggerman on Jan 4, 2018 16:50:48 GMT
I have only just remembered, bugger!
Anyway, better late than never, (I hope)...
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Lab; 48, Con; 32, LD; 8, UKIP; 7, Green; 5
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 4, 2018 20:24:19 GMT
18 entries this week with Pete Whitehead making a welcome return after a 6 month break, AJS after something like a 4½ year absence, Carlton after a year or more, Casual Observer & Sir Benjamin who have been somewhat infrequent participants, ricmk has made very occasional forays whilst Oympian95, Right Leaning and robbienicholl are newbies.
Unfortunately Right Leaning and Ruggerman incur additional faults for being late, 40 and 60 respectively, but on this occasion I will half these to 20 and 30 and hope this will not affect the ultimate outcome for the month.
Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley: 16 Labour gain from Conservative with majority ranging from 4% (CasualObserver) to 30% (hempie & Yellow Peril) - Carlton a Conservative hold whilst SirBenjamin predicts a tie
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 4, 2018 21:19:31 GMT
For the purposes of any 'wrong winner' faults, SirBenjamin listed Labour first and the parties in descending order of vote, so I assume was predicting a Labour win.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 4, 2018 21:33:28 GMT
For the purposes of any 'wrong winner' faults, SirBenjamin listed Labour first and the parties in descending order of vote, so I assume was predicting a Labour win. No, he will get 5 faults unless Liberal Democrat, Green or UKIP win in which case it will be 10 faults like everyone else.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 4, 2018 23:53:44 GMT
Week 1:Authority | Hertsmere | Week 1 | Ward | Borehamwood Cowley
| position | AJS | 27.3
| 9th
| andrewp | 17.3
| 4th
| Carlton43 | 39.3+10
| 17th
| CasualObserver | 41.7
| 15th
| David Boothroyd | 27.7
| 10th
| greenrobinhood | 25.6
| 8th
| hempie | 13.6
| 3rd
| Lancastrian | 22.0
| 5th
| Pete Whitehead | 10.3
| 2nd
| olympian95 | 29.7
| 12th
| rickmk | 24.0
| 7th
| Right Leaning | 17.3+20 | 14th
| robbienicholl | 29.3
| 11th
| Robert Waller | 23.7
| 6th
| Ruggerman | 24.0+30 | 18th
| SirBenjamin | 39.3+5
| 16th
| WilliamHone | 35.6
| 13th
| Yellow Peril | 9.6
| 1st
| Total faults | 456.9+65
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Objections please by 5 pm Saturday. There are 4 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday. Please note the Bolton, Hulton by-election on 18 January will be part of the prediction competition.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 5, 2018 1:14:34 GMT
I am very pleased that middleenglander has decided on a relatively mild penalty for the two late posters so we have the grand total of 18 folk in the frame and with nine more contests in the month nobody was that far out so all 18 are definitely in with a shout come the end of January. Congratulations to Pete on his return and being the only one to get the order correct!
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 9, 2018 15:04:34 GMT
My wife and I are staying at our daughter's for a few days, but I will be popping home intermittently. I will try and update the results of Thursday's by-elections as and when, but in the meantime I do have two entries from AJS and Pete Whitehead via the message service.
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Post by Right Leaning on Jan 10, 2018 13:20:09 GMT
My predictions are
Birchington Rural Con 56% Lab 24 LD 11 UKIP 7 Gn 2
Wyre Rural C Con 65 Lab 25 Gn 10
Thanet village Con 48 Ind 32 Lab 11 LD 5 Gn 4
Preesall Con 59 Lab 41
Is Hulton next week or does that have to be added?
Steve
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 10, 2018 13:30:12 GMT
No Hulton is next week.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 10, 2018 16:03:33 GMT
11 January Predictions:
Birchington and Rural -
Con 46 Lab 36 LD 10 UKIP 5 Green 3
Thanet Villages -
Con 52 Lab 35 Green 6 Ind 5 LD 2
Wyre Rural Central -
Con 66 Lab 26 Green 8
Preesall
Con 59 Lab 41
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 10, 2018 21:55:45 GMT
Kent: Con 51 Lab 27 LD 11 UKIP 6 Green 5 Lancashire: Con 60 Lab 31 Green 9 Thanet: Con 42 Lab 25 LD 17 Ind 12 Green 4 Wyre: Con 57 Lab 43
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 10, 2018 22:07:36 GMT
Kent: Con 55 Lab 24 LD 10 UKIP 8 Green 3 Lancashire: Con 60 Lab 30 Green 10 Thanet: Con 50 Lab 15 LD 12 Ind 10 Green 13 Wyre: Con 51 Lab 49
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,767
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2018 22:32:27 GMT
Kent Con 52, Lab 24, UKIP 11, Lib Dem 9, Green 4 Lancashire Con 61, Lab 28, Green 11 Thanet Con 47, Ind 21, Lab 20, Lib Dem 7, Green 5 Wyre Con 58, Lab 42
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greenhert
Green
Posts: 7,188
Member is Online
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Post by greenhert on Jan 10, 2018 22:32:58 GMT
Kent CC, Birchington & Rural: Conservative 56, Labour 25, UKIP 10, Liberal Democrats 6, Green 3. Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural Central: Conservative 64, Labour 29, Green 7. Thanet DC, Thanet Villages: Conservative 54, Labour 26, Independent (Sonya Smith) 11, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 4. Wyre DC, Preesall: Conservative 55, Labour 45.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 23:40:16 GMT
Kent CC, Birchington & Rural: Con 50, Lab 35, LD 5, Grn 3, UKIP 7 Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural Central: Con 50, Lab 45, Grn 5 Thanet DC, Thanet Villages: Con 50, Lab 27, LD 5, Grn 3, Ind 15 Wyre DC, Preesall: Con 66, Lab 34
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 11, 2018 0:44:20 GMT
KENT Birchington and Thanet Rural: C 49, L Dem 24, Lab 16, UKIP 8, GP 3 LANCASHIRE Wyre Rural Central: C 64, Lab 28, GP 8 THANET Thanet Villages: C 40, L Dem 26, Lab 16, Ind 14, GP 4 WYRE Preesall: C 59, Lab 41
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 11, 2018 1:17:03 GMT
Kent Con 53 Lab 31 UKIP 11 LD 4 GP 1 Lancs Con 61 Lab 34 GP 5 Thanet Con 50 Lab 20 Ind 15 LD 8 GP7 Wyre Con 56 Lab 44
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