Prediction Competition - January 2018

[middleenglander]

It looks like 9 10 by-elections in January:
* 1 on 4 January
* 4 on 11
* 3 4 on 18
* 1 on 25

4 of the by-elections are in District Councils
- 3 last having "all-out" elections in 2015 and 1 in 2016
3 are for Unitary Authorities
- 1 where the last election was in May
- 1 with annual elections, the last in 2016
- 1 with "all-out" elections in 2015
2 are for County Councils last contested in May
1 is for a Metropolitan Authority last contested in 2016

Conservatives are defending 7 seats,
- 5 following the death of the previous councillor, 1 a resignation after becoming a MP and 1 a disqualification for non-attendance
Labour is defending 1 seat following the death of the previous Councillor
Liberal Democrats and Independent each defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all nominations known, there are 9 10 Conservative candidates,8 9 Labour, 7 8 Liberal Democrat, 6 7 Green, 3 4 UKIP and 3 Independents contesting 2 seats
- a total of 36 41 candidates for the 9 10 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the by-election.

[casualobserver]

First in with a prediction for the New Year!

Hertsmere: Borehamwood Cowley Hill

Lab 39%
Con 35%
LDem 11%
UKIP 9%
Grn 6%

[Robert Waller]

Hertsmere: Borehamwood Cowley Hill

Lab 48%
Con 33%
LDem 10%
UKIP 6%
Grn 3%

[yellowperil]

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Lab 59, Con 29, LD 6, UKIP 4, Green 2

[ricmk]

Don't know if I will stick at this for very long but let's try
LAB 50
CON 30
LD 10
GREEN 5
UKIP 5

[robbienicoll]

Hertsmere - Borehamwood Cowley Hill

Lab 46
Con 40
LD 8
UKIP 4
Green 2

[carlton43]

COWLEY HILL

Con 43
Lab 41
LD 9
UKIP 4
Green3

[yellowperil]

Lovely to see so many new (and old) faces coming forward to the prediction competition and hope they will keep going especially as the start of a new year ahead of May elections is a good quiet period to get into the feel of things. And voting early is good,too, as towards the end of last year we were all leaving it to very late and then coming up with very similar results. Already we seem to have a lot more variety of expectations in what had looked a pretty straightforward election...

[hempie]

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Lab 58, Con 28, LD 7, UKIP 4, Green 3

[andrewp]

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill Lab52, Con 34, Lib Dem 7, UKIP 4, Green 3

[sirbenjamin]

Cowley Hill:


LAB 42
CON 42
LD 11
UKIP 3
GREEN 2

[Deleted]

Hertsmere DC: Borehamwood Cowley Hill - Con 27, Lab 49, LD 12, Green 9, UKIP 3

[lancastrian]

Hertsmere: Lab 49 Con 32 LD 9 Green 5 UKIP 5

[greenhert]

Hertsmere DC, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Labour 48, Conservative 32, Liberal Democrat 10, Green 6, UKIP 4.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

HERTSMERE Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Lab 46, C 38, L Dem 7, UKIP 6, GP 3

[Andrew_S]

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill:

Lab: 47%
Con: 41%
LD: 6%
UKIP: 4%
Greens: 2%

[olympian95]

Hertsmere Borehamwood

Lab: 45%
Con: 34%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 7%
Green: 6%

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 2, 2018 22:01:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Cowley Hill

Lab   54.7%
Con  33.6%
UKIP  5.1%
LD      4.2%
Grn    2.4%

[hempie]

Good to see you back in the competition Pete.

[carlton43]

Jan 4, 2018 11:16:09 GMT hempie said:

Good to see you back in the competition Pete.

It certainly is, but I fear for my own prediction as he is closer to the ward and does not have a close projection at all on it!