|
|
Post by casualobserver on Jan 11, 2018 3:24:38 GMT
Kent CC, Birchington & Rural: Con 49, Lab 31, UKIP 9, LD 8, Grn 3
Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural Central: Con 50, Lab 44, Grn 6
Thanet DC, Thanet Villages: Con 54, Lab 23, LD 13, Ind 7, Grn 3
Wyre DC, Preesall: Con 59.8, Lab 40.2
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 11, 2018 5:20:13 GMT
Kent CC, Birchington & Rural: Con 38 LD 27, Lab 23, UKIP 9, Green 3
Lancs CC, Wyre RC: Con 60, Lab 29, Green 11
Thanet DC, Thanet Villages: Con 32, Ind 25, LD 23, Lab 13,Green 7
Wyre DC, Preesall: Con 62, Lab 38
|
|
|
|
Post by olympian95 on Jan 11, 2018 8:12:38 GMT
Kent CC, Birchington & Rural: Con 41, LD 25, Lab 20, UKIP 10 Green 4
Lance CC, Wyre RC: Con 57 Lab 34 Green 9
Thanet DC, Thanet Villages: Con 43 LD 21, Ind 15, Lab 17, Green 4
Wyre DC, Preesall: Con 61 Lab 39
|
|
|
|
Post by hempie on Jan 11, 2018 8:21:12 GMT
Kent, Birchington & Rural: Con 39, LD 24, Lab 23, UKIP 10, Green 4
Lancashire, Wyre Rural Central: Con 58, Lab 32, Green 10
Thanet, Thanet Villages: Con 37, Ind 20, LD 19, Lab 18,Green 6
Wyre, Preesall: Con 60, Lab 40
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
|
Post by ricmk on Jan 11, 2018 8:51:32 GMT
Kent, Birchington & Rural: Con 48, LD 24, Lab 20 UKIP 6, Green 2
Lancashire, Wyre Rural Central: Con 50, Lab 40, Green 10
Thanet, Thanet Villages: Con 40, Ind 8, LD 25, Lab 25, Green 2
Wyre, Preesall: Con 52 Lab 48
|
|
|
|
Post by Ruggerman on Jan 11, 2018 9:56:26 GMT
Kent CC, Birchington and Thanet Rural: Con; 56, Lab; 20, LD; 12, UKIP; 8, Green; 4
Thanet BC, Thanet Villages: Con; 37, Ind; 33, Green; 11, LD; 10, Lab; 9
Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural: Con; 72, Lab; 18, Green; 10
Wyre BC, Preesall: Con; 70, Lab; 30
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 11, 2018 10:00:57 GMT
9am has come and gone, and we have had at least 16 entries in, which is great- the two that seem to be missing are Ruggerman and Sir Benjamin but they could be late or sending their entries in by PM like Pete and AJS, so we could still have a full house.
I found the Lancashire ones very straightforward this week and the two Kent ones very difficult -maybe because I know a lot about Kent and damn-all about Lancashire! I have certainly heard a lot about Angie Curwen and her Thanet campaigns and if I took them at face value I should have been predicting a double Lib Dem gain in Thanet. If that were to happen I will feel foolish as I had the information to predict it, but I was more cautious but certainly expect Angie to do reasonably well and not to come in with a paper candidate single figure score which would be humiliating. Thanet has usually been difficult territory for Lib Dems though. I noticed a number of the later posters here were scoring the Lib Dems fairly well though, including David who is not known for overegging the Lib Dem vote( he had come up with results not all that dissimilar to me which I found encouraging). Then how will the UKIP vote redistribute itself or will it stay loyally purple? The other difficulty I found was assessing the Indy vote in the villages poll, where somewhere like Minster has a lot of votes which could go Indy. I went for quite a strong showing for them, though not enough to win.
edit: I see Ruggerman posted while I was writing this!
|
|
|
|
Post by Ruggerman on Jan 11, 2018 10:01:08 GMT
18 entries this week with Pete Whitehead making a welcome return after a 6 month break, AJS after something like a 4½ year absence, Carlton after a year or more, Casual Observer & Sir Benjamin who have been somewhat infrequent participants, ricmk has made very occasional forays whilst Oympian95, Right Leaning and robbienicholl are newbies. Unfortunately Right Leaning and Ruggerman incur additional faults for being late, 40 and 60 respectively, but on this occasion I will half these to 20 and 30 and hope this will not affect the ultimate outcome for the month. Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley: 16 Labour gain from Conservative with majority ranging from 4% (CasualObserver) to 30% (hempie & Yellow Peril) - Carlton a Conservative hold whilst SirBenjamin predicts a tie Thank you for your leniency, last week middleenglander. Alas, it wasn't a great start to the year for me. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 11, 2018 10:25:20 GMT
A bit alarming if there are late entries coming in as I try to share my thoughts on this weeks elections, on the basis it's safely after 9AM! However clearly in this case Ruggerman was posting his numbers at the same time as I was writing.
Incidentally I had an overnight loss of internet connection which is why my post was rather on the late side of ideal timing.Fortunately it came back about 4AM. I was panicking having had a similar problem on November costing me 400 points, so rushed to get them on soon after the internet came back, on the basis that even if these are quite wrong the loss is likely to be less than 400!
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Jan 11, 2018 10:35:07 GMT
I missed the evidence of an active Lib Dem campaign in Kent, so I'm now expecting to take hits there.
On the other hand, Rallings and Thrasher have an Independent S.Smith standing in Thanet Villages in 2015, which seems to have been missed off the figures on the local byelections thread, and she only got 6% then. And Andrew's Preview (which I've placed on that thread) implies that the parish which is her base covers only 10-15% of the ward electorate.
I have also gone for a punt on a surprisingly good Labour performance in Preesall on the basis of various bits of information provided by Andrew's invaluable and detailed survey.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 11, 2018 11:04:58 GMT
We will see who takes the hit on the Thanet elections- maybe I have been taken in by some good old Lib Dem ramping!
Sorry I hadn't picked out Sonya Smith as the Indy candidate in 2015 - she was the 335 votes listed on the local by-elections thread but I hadn't drawn attention to the fact she was the candidate this time. My reasoning would go: she got 335 votes on a first outing probably mainly in her own village, on a general election day. If she seriously went for it and campaigned across the ward on a by-election where votes will be low anyway and there a lot of potential independent-minded votes in the other villages she could get a quite respectable vote if not enough to win. Maybe quite wrong and I have little info on her campaign, if I am wrong on her it is possible I may have undermarked Angie Curwen in the Villages ward, though I got the impression Angie was mainly focussed on the County division.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Jan 11, 2018 12:57:33 GMT
Yes, but in 2015 three votes could be cast. As we have discussed before, there is a tendency to 'lend' one vote to candidates such as Greens and Independents - and the two independents clearly were not running as part of a 'slate'.
Anyway, good to see such healthy interest and lively debate in the Prediction Competition thread - and we should know a lot more about the issues we are discussing within 24 hours!
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Jan 11, 2018 21:04:22 GMT
I do hope we'll be able to see Pete's and AJS's predictions (as I believe ME said he may be away at present)
|
|
|
|
Post by mattb on Jan 11, 2018 21:47:50 GMT
I have certainly heard a lot about Angie Curwen and her Thanet campaigns and if I took them at face value I should have been predicting a double Lib Dem gain in Thanet. If that were to happen I will feel foolish as I had the information to predict it, but I was more cautious but certainly expect Angie to do reasonably well and not to come in with a paper candidate single figure score which would be humiliating. I would love this to be right - but when was the last time any LD got above 10% in any election anywhere in Thanet? Not for 15 years surely. I know Birchington may be marginally less infertile than other parts of Thanet, but even so I will be extremely impressed if your forecast is anywhere near right! |
|
|
|
Post by lancastrian on Jan 11, 2018 22:10:51 GMT
I have certainly heard a lot about Angie Curwen and her Thanet campaigns and if I took them at face value I should have been predicting a double Lib Dem gain in Thanet. If that were to happen I will feel foolish as I had the information to predict it, but I was more cautious but certainly expect Angie to do reasonably well and not to come in with a paper candidate single figure score which would be humiliating. I would love this to be right - but when was the last time any LD got above 10% in any election anywhere in Thanet? Not for 15 years surely. I know Birchington may be marginally less infertile than other parts of Thanet, but even so I will be extremely impressed if your forecast is anywhere near right! May 2017. 12% in Birchington and Rural, with Angie Curwen the lead candidate. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Jan 11, 2018 22:51:57 GMT
“Kent CC, Birchington & Rural:
Con 53
Lab 23
LD 10
UKIP 10
Greens 4
Thanet BC, Thanet Villages:
Con 45
Lab 20
Ind 18
Greens 10
LD 7
Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural Central:
Con 66
Lab 25
Greens 9
Wyre BC, Preesall:
Con 61
Lab 39”
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 12, 2018 7:53:57 GMT
Pete's forecasts are no doubt brilliant as ever but he's too shy to share them with us so we may have to wait for middleenglander's reappearance . Looking at what has happened so far while we wait on Thanet, I think at least 4 of us (probably 5 if Pete is on form) are still under 30 faults for the month after 3 elections, but I think my slender lead from last week has gone to Andrewp, hempie and Lancastrian (the latter making good use of home advantage). All the scores are pretty low so far but we have far more divergence in Thanet so this is where we may see the month won or lost. I may have gone out on a limb here and am left wondering if I've blown it. Soon we'll know!
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2018 9:05:13 GMT
Pete's forecasts are no doubt brilliant as ever but he's too shy to share them with us so we may have to wait for middleenglander's reappearance . On the contrary. My prediction for Preesall was a complete fuck up because I incorrectly entered the data on which it was based (for the most recent, 2015 result) so I will have more than 30 faults for that result alone. Too embarrassed would be a more apt description |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jan 12, 2018 10:09:39 GMT
I also felt I made a bad mistake with Preesall- I put my draft result in fast when my internet came back fearing it would go off again , and had originally intended to revisit that one as I feared I had overrated the Tories in present circumstances, which was indeed the case. I think a dozen people will have single figure faults on that one so anyone in double figures takes a hit.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2018 12:18:25 GMT
FWIW here are the predictions I submitted Kent CC - Birchington & Thanet Rural Con 52.3% Lab 21.8% LD 12.2% UKIP 10.9% Grn 2.8% Thanet BC - Thanet Villages Con 48.3% Lab 20.7% Ind 16.1% LD 9.6% Grn 5.3% Lancashire CC - Wyre Rural Central Con 64.8% Lab 23.8% Grn 11.4% Wyre BC - Preesall Con 71.9% Lab 28.1% |
|
